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Emission Scenario Development
Research Programs
Climate & Air Quality
For the first phase of the Climate Impacts on Regional Air Quality (CIRAQ) study, the Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD) examined air quality under a future climate scenario with anthropogenic emissions of ozone and aerosol precursors fixed at 2001 levels, and biogenic emissions from vegetation and soils allowed to vary with the simulated meteorology (Nolte et al., 2008). For the second phase of CIRAQ, future air quality is simulated using the same meteorology from phase 1 and alternative projections of future anthropogenic emissions.
Emission projections for different scenarios of economic growth and technological utilization have been developed by colleagues at EPA/ORD's National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL) using the EPA 9-region MARKAL energy system model. MARKAL outputs were converted to source classification code-specific growth factors, which were then used with the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emission (SMOKE) model to generate emissions inputs for use by the CMAQ chemical transport model.
Air quality simulations using these emissions projections and the climatological meteorology described above have been conducted using CMAQ v4.7. Analysis of these simulations is in progress.
Contacts: Bill Benjey, Chris Nolte.
Related Publications:
C. G. Nolte, A. B. Gilliland, C. Hogrefe, and L. J. Mickley (2008),
Linking global to regional models to assess future climate impacts on surface ozone levels in the United States,
Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D14307.
U.S. EPA (2006), MARKAL Scenario Analyses of Technology Options for the Electric Sector: The Impact on Air Quality, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R-06/114.
L. G. Fishbone and H. Abilock (1981), MARKAL, a linear-programming model for energy systems analysis: technical description of the BNL version, International Journal of Energy Research, 5, 353-375.
Related Link of Interest:
SMOKE emissions model