![[logo] US EPA](http://www.epa.gov/epafiles/images/logo_epaseal.gif){kind=logo}
2007 CompTox Forum
Abstract - Climate Change: Understanding the Past and Forecasting the Future
Gabriele Hegerl, Ph.D.
Research Professor
Duke University
Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences
Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences
333D Old Chemistry Building, Box 90227, Durham, NC 27708
Phone: 919-684-6167
E-mail: hegerl@duke.edu
The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has continued to rise and is at levels unprecedented since thousands of years. Simple energy balance calculations as well as climate model simulations using the latest earth system models indicate that this continuing increase should lead to a substantial global warming. This talk will introduce climate modeling, and the science behind statements like the recent conclusion from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that most of the observed warming in the recent 50 years was likely due to greenhouse gas increases. Predicted future changes, their uncertainty ranges and key open questions will be introduced as well.