ࡱ> za߿ߝXo( UUUUzag\Oy Ek( DDZG( / 0DTimes New Roman0z[ 0DTahomaew Roman0z[ 0 DWingdingsRoman0z[ 0 C-.< @  @@``  @n?" dd@  @@`` ;%#&"" DH     * !"#$%&'()4$$$$$r$߿ߝXoifr$g\Oy Ekii 0e0e     A@  A5% 8c8c     ?1 d0u0@Ty2 NP'p<'pA)BCD|E||S"P̙f@8g4GdGd z[ 0ppp@  <4BdBdL< 0<4!d!dL< 0R ʚ;d8ʚ;<4ddddL|- 080___PPT10 ___PPT9nu=!BWk@~PNG  IHDRF} PLTE3:tRNS@f cmPPJCmp0712Om9IDATc``b $<&40(Zжj˂AtM iIENDB`/ 0&? 8JThe Environmental Future Emerging Challenges and Opportunities for the EPA.K1$`A Report from the National Advisory Council for Environmental Policy and Technology January 2002Developing this report+Balanced interest workgroup of Council members Face-to-face meetings, teleconferences and Groupware consensus-building session and futurist consultant/writer Workgroup product reviewed by EPA staff and other interested parties and modified by full Council prior to final transmittal to Administrator,Z,.Creating an effective foresight process in EPA//(Desired attributes comprehensive, continuous & institutional Recommended activities Encourage foresight efforts championed by the Administrator and senior leadership Support and expand EPA s  Futures Network through training in foresight methodologies Expand workforce capacity by promoting / hiring multi-discipline & cross-media expertsZ*ZZZ*       8    -    >   .Creating an effective foresight process in EPA//(Incorporate futures analysis into EPA s strategic planning process - move beyond problem-solving Support work  at the edges, by encouraging unconventional and innovative thinking both within current programs and across programs Champion futures analysis at other agencies and regularly engage outside stakeholders Engage NACEPT as a forum for futures analysistiZEh++ ! Organizational ThemesWorld population and demographics Natural resources Science and technology Information management and access Economics and commerce Politics and social evolution  Population and demographicsPRaise domestic awareness of sustainable development Facilitate export of environmentally superior technologies to developing countries Elevate EPA s international role in sustainable development networks and education Establish  Envirocorps to compliment international aid efforts of Peace CorpsBZO}ZSO Natural ResourcesMEnergy Expand Energy-Star Program broadly across consumer product sectors Establish Green Vehicle Labeling Program Partner w/ DoE on the Freedom CAR Encourage total cost accounting for energy technologies for development decision-making Spur investment in renewables and efficiency technologies through CAA State Implementation PlansjZlZ"}ZZl"Natural Resources)Energy Promote market-oriented policies and programs to curb greenhouse gas emissions Demonstrate methane-to-hydrogen conversion and hydrogen energy technologies at POTWs Support innovative research on sequestering carbon in energy production Encourage R&D on hydrogen as a primary energy carrier ZZH}Z6ZZH6  Natural ResourcesWater Expedite Pretreatment Streamlining Initiative Integrate water efficiency objectives with current water discharge regulations Develop holistic management approach to water and the environment with other agencies and stakeholders Redouble efforts to include non-point sources in water management programs Implement an effective market system to minimize generation of hazardous waste through P2, source reduction and other initiativesZ}dZg}ZZ}gK Natural ResourcesBiodiversity, Land and Food Enhance use of Supplemental Environmental Projects to encourage land conservation and restoration Continue to develop partnerships with State DNRs and other land management agencies for wildlife preservation and biodiversity protection Develop comprehensive biodiversity indicators as primary indicators of ecological health Expand domestic and international efforts to identify and control invasive speciesZZY}ZSZbYSNatural Resources\Biodiversity, Land and Food Sponsor research on the costs and benefits of higher density community development Assess ecological and economic impacts of sea level rise from global warming Advocate environmentally advanced agricultural practices Develop national strategy to address public health impacts of antibiotics, hormones and food additives ZZ9}ZgZZ9g  Natural ResourcesAir Initiate  Healthy Buildings / Healthy People indoor air voluntary partnership as follow-up to OAR and OPPTS report Develop  total human exposure approach to air emissions from multiple, diffuse sources Re-establish an advanced automotive technology partnership Support R&D for advanced transit systems, including commercial vehicles Support research on ultra-clean coal technology~ZtZX}ZZtX;x Science and Technologyx Lead by example with clear Agency-wide commitment to environmental excellence start with Strategic Plan Move broadly beyond Project XL with simplified regulatory relief to spur performance and innovation Marshall sound science in development and defense of environmental standards Create investment partnerships for energy efficient technologies Identify and promote environmentally beneficial developments in biotechnology and nanotechnologyT\Za}ZMAa Information Management/Access(zExpand information role through focused public environmental education Environmental Indicators Initiative Enhance ENVIROMAPPER accessibility and user friendliness Expand community information access, e.g. Windows to the Environment Expand EPA s coordination role with regulatory partners and others conducting environmental monitoring Invest in and incorporate geospatial technologies into EPA s rulemaking, regulatory and compliance proceduresrGZZgZn}ZGgnInformation Management/Access(Monitor development and promote use of new sensing technologies in environmental monitoring Perfect integrated monitoring technologies that allow  total human exposure assessments to multi-pollutant and multi-media exposures8\}\ Economics and CommerceExpand Environmental Technology Verification to identify emerging, commercially-ready technologies Support disaster preparedness by state, local and private sector stakeholders by delivering vulnerability assessment tools and resources Expand product stewardship and  Design for the Environment efforts toward environmentally responsible products/servicesLcZ}ZyZcyEconomics and CommercePImplement a global alert system to identify high-environmental-risk manufacturing processes to minimize migration to vulnerable nations and communities Integrate cumulative risk assessment into permitting processes to foster environmental justice Support development of international review and verification of environmental performance>ZZ}ZZEconomics and CommerceProvide international assistance to prevent ecological and economic development failures Encourage conversion from a  goods economy to a  service providers economy through informational outreach6Yl}Yl Politics and Social Evolution2Enhance Agency capacity to evaluate tribal, state, and local environmental performance Enhance regional, tribal and state capacities to carry-out delegated program functions, including delivery of effective compliance assistance Promptly reinstate federal oversight for distressed or failing state programs@W}NWNPolitics and Social Evolution Engage NGOs and non-traditional stakeholders in community-based approaches to environmental protection Support the Global Reporting Initiative pilot projects underway at major multi-national corporations Support ongoing US participation in global environmental initiatives and conventions>g}geU Next Steps (Engage senior EPA managers to refine and prioritize NACEPT recommendations NACEPT  Futures Forum in late spring Discussions with senior EPA managers, representatives of other 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Since November, the workgroup has sought the review of the full Council, EPA staff and others in preparing the report presented here.H  0޽h6Ɍ ? ̙33 0 PU(  ^  S  ?6     0x  @   ?+Recent history is replete with examples of environmental surprises: ozone depletion by CFCs, reproductive effects of DDT, thalidomide and PCBs, Chernobyl and Bhopal. Laws have been passed, institutions created and regulations written mainly in response to unexpected developments that were already having serious impacts by the time their importance was recognized. Many more environmental surprises lie ahead. Some will be inherently unpredictable, but there are many others that can be anticipated and assessed, and their negative effects forestalled. H  0޽h6Ɍ ? ̙33 0 |t (  ^  S  ?6   n  0%  @   Desired attributes: Comprehensive means that the process should explore everything that can impact the EPA s mission, not just selected areas of concern. Like a good radar, it must look continually in many different directions; continuous means that the process must be more than a snapshot; institutional means that the process must be made a long-term activity across the Agency. The Council has identified a number of activities that the EPA should undertake in pursuit of effective foresight:H  0޽h6Ɍ ? ̙33h  0 (  (  ^  S  ?6     0/  @   Borrowing from complexity theory, the workgroup identified the top level characteristics of a healthy complex system, and applied these characteristics in describing a desired  future state for each of the six themes around which this report is structured. As we explore each of these six themes, the slides that we see will summarize the opportunities that NACEPT is putting forward for the EPA s consideration. The opportunities are color-coded into three categories: White those that appear to be both technically feasible and within the scope of the EPA s mission, and can be implemented immediately through commitment of appropriate resources; Gold those that appear to be technically feasible in the near future, but may lie outside the scope of the EPA s mission and/or require coordination with other agencies; and Green those that require substantial research and development and/or coordination with other agencies, but offer substantial long-term rewards.H  0޽h6Ɍ ? ̙33x 0 80(  ^  S  ?6   *  0C  @   The same underlying driving forces impact all global environmental issues: population size, level of consumption and choice of technologies. While managing population growth is not part of the EPA s mandate, the Agency s activities, both domestic and international, can have a catalytic impact on population dynamics, economic activity and consumer behavior, and can contribute to significant reductions in both total global and per capita environmental impacts.H  0޽h6Ɍ ? ̙33~ 0 >6 (  ^  S  ?6   0  0K  @   The world is not facing an energy supply crisis! The primary challenge today is energy management to reduce the carbon intensity of energy economy while facilitating the conversion to renewable sources and hydrogen storage. This conversion is no simple task; many see it as today s equivalent of putting a man on the moon, but the rewards could be immeasurable. The EPA clearly holds a central role in this arena, and can contribute significantly in several areas.H  0޽h6Ɍ ? ̙33  0 N F 0(  ^  S  ?6   @  0pW  @   Globally, 2.3 billion people live in water-stressed countries where conflicts are increasing. By 2025, an estimated 2.7 billion people will live in areas experiencing severe water scarcity. Globally, only about 10 percent of all wastewater is treated before being discharged into rivers or other water bodies. While the US does not yet face widespread water shortages, the warning signs are clear the Ogallala aquifer has been severely depleted, Great Lakes water elevations are dropping, California agriculture continues to consume water beyond sustainable levels, groundwater contamination threatens to render aquifers unusable for hundreds of years, and water and wastewater infrastructure is aging in the face of increasing demand. While point source contamination has decreased dramatically over the past 30 years, a holistic water management approach that addresses non-point sources and the synergistic effects of multiple pollutants is necessary to ensure continued progress.H  0޽h6Ɍ ? ̙33  0 @/(  ^  S  ?6     0k  @   Biodiversity, land and food production are deeply intertwined. Habitat loss and degradation is the leading cause of declining biodiversity, affecting 85 percent of all threatened species. The leading cause of habitat loss is conversion of land for low-density urban development, agriculture and forest plantation. The spread of exotic species and diseases is second only to habitat loss as a cause of declining biodiversity and ecological destruction. While slow migration has always been a part of nature, globalization of commerce and travel have accelerated this process so drastically that it constitutes a major new challenge. Reducing agricultural runoff from erosion, over-fertilization and pesticide use is the other major challenge for preserving biodiversity.H  0޽h6Ɍ ? ̙33 0 rjP(  ^  S  ?6   d  0`x  @   While the improvement in US air quality has been one of the EPA s greatest achievements, a new multi-pollutant approach will be needed to yield further improvements in urban areas, and to address air toxics, fine particulates and emissions from diffuse sources. The possibility of having to expand the use of coal in conventional power generation may also pose an increased threat to air quality. Global warming may be the greatest long-term air-related problem because of the impact climate change will have on all other ecological systems. Finally, from a human health perspective, the greatest environmental exposures to chemicals do not occur outside, but in the indoor environment, where traditional command-and-control may not be effective.H  0޽h6Ɍ ? ̙336   0   ` (  ^  S  ?6      0  @   p : Today s rapid pace of scientific discovery and technological change is likely to accelerate. We are still near the beginning, not the end of revolutions in information and communications, biotechnology and genomics, materials and manufacturing, energy efficiency and production, and other areas. This acceleration will bring new capabilities for identifying pollutants and better science for assessing risks. The EPA will be significantly challenged to keep up with positive developments in areas like early biological markers for degradation, genetic risk assessment, membrane separation, sensor technology and geospatial technologies for environmental intelligence. Manufacturing of goods and services will become increasingly  boutique, while technological acceleration will pose difficult problems as new products are being developed faster than our ability to test them. Technology will also evolve faster than accompanying legal, moral, ethical and economic frameworks. A critical role for the EPA will be to create a business environment in which beneficial technological innovations are not simply awaited, but are aggressively brought to market and widespread use.H  0޽h6Ɍ ? ̙33T  0  p(  ^  S  ?6     0,  @   XInformation, coupled with public education and access, is central for aligning the efficiency of markets with environmental protection. Informed involvement requires access to high quality information. Better coordination is needed to integrate information from many sources. Increasingly complex information needs to be organized around logical geographical units such as watersheds, and presented in ways that are easy to understand. Providing vital information in a variety of languages can help more citizens gain access. Technological progress will create dramatic new capabilities for information collection and management over the generation ahead. Improved remote sensing using satellite, airborne and in situ observation systems will allow for near-real time monitoring of a wide variety of environmental conditions. The convergence of geospatial information systems, visualization products and Internet capabilities will revolutionize the display of environmental information. These new technologies will also empower non-governmental organizations as well as traditional governmental regulators.H  0޽h6Ɍ ? ̙33   0 V N  (  ^  S  ?6   H   0̴  @    Even the most conservative calculations suggest that the value of ecosystem services exceeds the gross world product. Economics and environmental well-being are ultimately inseparable. The UN, World Bank and the World Resources Institute have all concluded that there are considerable signs that ecosystem capacity to produce many goods and services is rapidly declining. The decline is fastest in the world s poorest nations, creating the prospect of future ecological-economic development failures. Even affluent nations face special environmental risks related to the possibilities for terrorism and economic disruption. While command-and-control systems may be the only way to provide real environmental protection under some circumstances, they have real economic costs to the regulated community. Today, environmental regulations are increasingly being supplemented by cooperative partnerships and market-based instruments such as taxes and pollution charges, and trading programs. US consumer waste, particularly in electronics products, is growing astronomically. Some 31 million personal computers are expected to become trash this year alone, and that number could double by 2007. Product take-back could help avert this problem.H  0޽h6Ɍ ? ̙33  0 RJ(  ^  S  ?6   D  0  @   Without much fanfare, a historic redistribution of decision-making roles is underway in many nations, including the US. Power is shifting away from nation states in several directions. The shift upward is related to the growth of multinational corporations and international economic and political institutions. The shift downward is moving decisions to regional, state and local institutions as the  new federalism continues. The shift sideways involves an every increasing array of privatization arrangements and public-private partnerships, as well as the growing role of NGOs. 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