ÿWPC n}¡;Ò­YYßc.áGRštºªg¶Ã›'lù­8œ€Ó x[UéîÒçnŒS(¼-B;ºÕäZqUçEÒÇ£¡tÀ‡B°o…r?³6ƒ~q~äÑ?Ž€Úæh÷{Ó5õ6ùÿ‘d¤=ñÀ£zµVô+È򯯬-í”-qh×4qCý„Fuü¦ÐœúˆÐß@ÍX$õŠnÅ»P±" "å½Ýèð‰äìØó\G“ÎÖ®÷Þã1D¾“›k15C5&^GÀ “Èp±«šJÛb÷‰¦'/Ò ~æEËÓ€1²òý¿"(ÐÇ&› Ée©æÍ“[2^úózÜú^–ëæ_R,˜7× ÑAW“Q42‰¨Çjª!û®–vžß_Y«}¿}ê&‡wðâú7¥ "턊Ûãjhÿ -`ʵÏÊyK‹ße›‰õlx†÷Úwå:ŒÛ ih¶Æ¨#,+ˆÖ]kÌÈî ɹ4PÓ˜©ÀvƒZmÙêé6Æ€ûñó‹›7#A”8ÎŒ¹¥¶\[] ÂKËo¬ÜT#¤oMð–ó4¬íœr[ÎáDśޯTñSDý.“ RI~úi(µÌXL–uzæ`£Mb1ÖÕڮĈøfñ£-NÕÿ3#!ÊU@Në %9 0(?UJgw±4µÉØ mÚ 0CñÆ4 0eú„_EãU9FåUF+ q "y › 0L£ UFï Q5 N† ^ ˆ ˆ ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” AOœ Æë 0D± 0Dõ 0D9 Æ} D/C Br B 0L¬ AMø 0KE D3 D3à Cö˜HP LaserJet 4/4M Plus PS FileÈÚØÚÚØÈÚ0xÈhH  Z‹6Times New Roman RegularX($¡¡{,hä  Z2CG Times (W1) Regular“x¥&åï3|xKÿU‹ÿÀÀÀ(2C$§§Ý ƒ!ÝÝ  Ý1, 2, 3,Level 1Level 2Level 3Level 4Level 54#(þ2Quick 1)Úƒ ÚÚ  Ú)à0 àÛ€ Û zÝ ƒ C'ÝÝ  ÝÔ_ÔÓ  ÓÔ‡ôL‚õXXÔFINALÐ ° ÐMarch€1998´à09Z+.Courier New Regularšj aZ'.LinePrinter Regular  Ñ 8 ÑÑ  Ñ >c$"Small Circleð"ðà0 à<à09Z .Courier New Regular GÝ ƒ C'ÝÝ  ÝÔ_ÔÓ  ÓFINALÌMarch€1998úZ<'ä %'(*Cþÿ<< CÿÿƒLevel 1Level 2Level 3Level 4Level 5(3¯$¢¢Ý ƒ!ÝÝ  Ý(3¯$££Ý ƒ!ÝÝ  Ý($$””ò òÚ  Ú1Ú  Úó óLevel 1Level 2Level 3Level 4Level 5,,'÷ÿ dxd düÿP Pd>ßb$Large Circleððà0 à)'/0A<< Cÿÿ( ±þ$’’ò òFigure€Ú  Ú1Ú  Úó ó++++'ÿÿdxd,,,,'ûÿdxd ÿÿÿdÝ ƒ!ÝÝ  ÝÔ_ÔÓ€ÓÓ  ÓÌÌ€Ô‡X3XXXÔ€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€Ð tÄ Ðò òÔ‡„eè„XX3ÔFinal€Technical€Report€Ð Ö& Ѐ€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ÌAnalysis€of€Carbon€Monoxide€Exposure€Ìfor€Fourteen€Cities€using€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô-MS3Ô#†X3X„„eè¢#Ôó óÐ V  ÐÔ#†X3XXX3L#ÔÓ€Ó€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€Ð f  Ѐ€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ÌÔ‡¼Z-»XX3ÔÔ_ÔAEARÔ_Ô€WA€II-48Ð î> ÐÌÌMichael€Ô_ÔZelenkaÔ_ÔÌWork€Assignment€ManagerÌÌNational€Exposure€Research€LaboratoryÌU.S.€Environmental€Protection€AgencyÌ€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€Ì€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ÌPrepared€by:Ì€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ÌGraham€Glen,€Project€ScientistÌDoug€Ô_ÔShadwickÔ_Ô,€Project€ScientistÌ€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ÌÔ_ÔManTechÔ_Ô€Environmental€Technology,€Inc.ÌResearch€Triangle€Park,€NC€27709Ì€€€€€€€€€€€€Ì€€€€€€€€€€€ÌEPA€Contract€No.€#68-D5-0049ÌWork€Assignment€048Ô#†X3X»¼Z-C#ÔÐ  V(¦#$ ÐÖ€ÿÿÖò òÔ‡¼Z-»XX3ÔForewordÐ  ÐÓ€ÓÔ#†X3X»¼Z-B#ÔÔ‡&?V%XX3Ôó óÌÓ  ÓÔ#†X3X%&?V³#ÔThis€report€presents€the€results€of€work€performed€by€Ô_ÔManTechÔ_Ô€Environmental€Technology,€Inc.,Ð \ X Ðunder€Work€Assignment€II„48€of€Contract€68„D5„0049€for€the€National€Exposure€ResearchÏLaboratory,€U.S.€Environmental€Protection€Agency,€Research€Triangle€Park,€NC.€€This€report€hasÏbeen€reviewed€by€Ô_ÔManTechÔ_Ô€Environmental€Technology,€Inc.,€and€approved€for€publication.€ÏMention€of€trade€names€or€commercial€products€does€not€constitute€endorsement€orÏrecommendation€for€use.Ô‡¼Z-»XX3Ôò òÐ  FB  ÐÓ  ÓÌTable€of€ContentsÔ#†X3X»¼Z-,#Ôó óÐ ¢ž ÐÓcÓÓ€ÓÌChapter€1:€Exposure€Estimates€using€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€Model.............................à0 x à€€1Ð, (x(#x(# Ðà  àIntroduction..................................................................................................à0 x à€€1Ð x(#x(# Ðà  àDescription€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô................................................................................à0 x à€€2Ð x(#x(# Ðà  àChanges€and€Enhancements€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô......................................................à0 x à€€7Ðð ìx(#x(# Ðà  àData€Handling€and€Data€Management..........................................................à0 x à13ÐÜØ x(#x(# Ðà  àResults..........................................................................................................à0 x à18ÐÈÄ x(#x(# Ðà  àDiscussion....................................................................................................à0 x à25д° x(#x(# Ðà  àSummary.......................................................................................................à0 x à32Рœ x(#x(# Ðà  àTables............................................................................................................à0 x à33ÐŒˆ x(#x(# ÐÌChapter€2:€Uncertainty€Analysis...............................................................................à0 x à45Ðd` x(#x(# Ðà  àIntroduction...................................................................................................à0 x à45ÐPLx(#x(# Ðà  àComparison€of€Models€to€Sample€Data........................................................à0 x à47Ð<8x(#x(# Ðà  àAir€Quality....................................................................................................à0 x à51Ð($x(#x(# Ðà  àPopulation.....................................................................................................à0 x à52Ðx(#x(# Ðà  àTemperature..................................................................................................à0 x à53Ðüx(#x(# Ðà  àActivity€Patterns............................................................................................à0 x à53Ðìèx(#x(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔMicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€Factors.........................................................................à0 x à56ÐØÔx(#x(# Ðà  àSummary.......................................................................................................à0 x à57ÐÄÀx(#x(# Ðà  àReferences.....................................................................................................à0 x à58а¬x(#x(# Ðà  àTables............................................................................................................à0 x à59М˜x(#x(# ÐÌChapter€3:€Quality€Assurance...................................................................................à0 x à63Ðtpx(#x(# Ðà  àIntroduction...................................................................................................à0 x à63Ð` \x(#x(# Ðà  àHandling€of€Program€Code...........................................................................à0 x à63ÐL!Hx(#x(# Ðà  àEnhancements€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3...................................................................à0 x à64Ð8"4x(#x(# Ðà  àData€Management€and€Verification..............................................................à0 x à68Ð$# x(#x(# Ðà  àTables............................................................................................................à0 x à71Ð$  x(#x(# ÐÌAppendicesÐ  è%ä" ÐÓ  Óò òÔ‡¼Z-»XX3ÔÌList€of€AppendicesÔ#†X3X»¼Z-#Ôó óÐ  ÐÓñÓÓ€ÓÌÌà  àAppendix€A1:€€€Baltimore€Study€Areaà0  à€€€€€€à0p(#(#àÐð ìp(#p(# Ðà  àAppendix€A2:à0 ¸ à€€Boston€Study€Area€€€€€€€€€€à0¸ (#¸ (#àÐR N(#(# Ðà  àAppendix€A3:à0 ¸ à€€Chicago€Study€Area€€€€€€€€€€€€à0¸ (#¸ (#àд° (#(# Ðà  àAppendix€A4:à0 ¸ à€€Denver€Study€Area€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€à0p¸ (#¸ (#àÐ p(#p(# Ðà  àAppendix€A5:à0 ¸ à€€Houston€Study€Area€€€€€€€€€€€€à0¸ (#¸ (#àÐxt (#(# Ðà  àAppendix€A6:à0 ¸ à€€Los€Angeles€Study€Area€€€€€€à0¸ (#¸ (#àÐÚÖ (#(# Ðà  àAppendix€A7:à0 ¸ à€€Minneapolis„Ô_ÔSt.PaulÔ_Ô€Study€Area€à0p¸ (#¸ (#àÐ<8 p(#p(# Ðà  àAppendix€A8:€€€€New€York€City€Study€AreaÌ€€€€€€€€€€€€Appendix€A9:€€€€Philadelphia€Study€AreaÌà  àAppendix€A10:€€Phoenix€Study€AreaÌà  àAppendix€A11:€€San€Francisco€Study€AreaÌà  àAppendix€A12:€€Spokane€Study€Area€€€€€€€€€€€Ìà  àAppendix€A13:€€St.€Louis€Study€AreaÌà  àAppendix€A14:€€Washington€DC€Study€AreaÌà  àÌà  àAppendix€B:€€€€€€Maps€of€the€Fourteen€Study€AreasÐ  ® ª$ ÐÓ  Óò òÔ‡¼Z-»XX3ÔList€of€TablesÔ#†X3X»¼Z-Ã#Ôó óÐ  ÐÌÓ  Óà  àTable€1:€€€List€of€Ambient€CO€Monitors....................................................à0 x à33Ð x(#x(# Ðà  àTable€2:€€€Ô_ÔMicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€Factors......................................................à0 x à39Ðf bx(#x(# Ðà  àTable€3:€€€Meteorological€Data...................................................................à0 x à40ÐÈ Äx(#x(# Ðà  àTable€4:€€€County€Populations€and€Exposures............................................à0 x à42Ð*& x(#x(# Ðà  àTable€5:€€€Counts€of€Activity€Patterns.........................................................à0 x à59ÐŒˆ x(#x(# Ðà  àTable€6:€€€Exposure€Estimates€for€Alternative€Activity€Sequences............à0 x à60Ðîê x(#x(# Ðà  àTable€7:€€€Percentiles€for€Alternative€Activity€Sequences..........................€€€€61Ìà  àTable€8:€€€Ô_ÔFractilesÔ_Ô€for€Alternative€Activity€Sequences..............................à0 x à62в® x(#x(# Ðà  àTable€9:€€€Test€of€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô€Program........................................................à0 x à71Ðx(#x(# Ðà  àTable€10:€Test€1€of€Ô_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_Ô€Program....................................................à0 x à72Ðvrx(#x(# Ðà  àTable€11:€Test€2€of€Ô_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_Ô€Program....................................................à0 x à73ÐØÔx(#x(# Ðà  àTable€12:€Test€3€of€Ô_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_Ô€Program....................................................€€€74Ìà  àTable€13:€Comparison€of€Ô_ÔOuptutÔ_Ô€to€Previous€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs.......................à0 x à75М˜x(#x(# ÐÐ  þú ÐÑe°ÑØØò òÑ8€3XXdìdÈ8ÑÖ€ŒÖÓ  ÓCHAPTER€€1Ð  ÐÌEXPOSURE€ESTIMATES€USING€THE€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€MODELÌÓ¿(ÓÌIntroductionó óÐ  ˆ ÐÌThe€purpose€of€this€report€is€to€present€the€findings€from€an€application€of€the€Hazardous€AirÏPollutant€Exposure€Model€for€Mobile€Sources,€Version€3€(hereafter€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3,€or€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô)Ïto€fourteen€urban€areas€for€the€calendar€year€1990.€€This€report€contains€a€description€of€theÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€model,€model€results€and€discussion,€an€uncertainty€analysis,€and€a€quality€assuranceÏsection.€€The€Appendices€contain€detailed€tables€of€model€results€for€each€of€fourteen€studyÏareas,€and€a€set€of€maps€(one€per€study€area).€€The€principal€results€are€tables€of€exposureÏestimates€to€ambient€carbon€monoxide€(CO)€by€demographic€group,€quarter€of€the€year,€andÏcounty.€€Other€tables€summarizing€exposure€by€hour,€air€district,€and€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€are€alsoÏpresented,€along€with€tables€of€percentiles€and€Ô_ÔfractilesÔ_Ô€of€the€exposure€distribution€within€eachÏstudy€area.€€A€companion€report€presents€a€sensitivity€analysis,€which€investigates€theÏdependence€of€the€exposure€estimates€on€the€set€of€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€used€for€theÏanalysis.€€Ì€ÌThe€CO€exposure€estimates€were€calculated€for€a€common€set€of€€23€demographic€groups€in€eachÏstudy€area,€using€a€common€set€of€model€parameters.€€This€allows€for€the€direct€comparison€ofÏdifferent€study€areas.€€The€entire€set€of€output€tables€is€very€extensive€and€has€been€placed€on€aÏCD„ROM.€€€The€additional€tables€on€the€CD„ROM€not€printed€in€this€report€include€hourly€andÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€breakouts€for€each€demographic€group€in€each€study€area.€€The€printedÏtables€in€this€report€only€contain€these€results€for€the€demographic€group€of€ððall€personsðð.€€TheÏcomplete€set€contains€an€additional€3€x€22€x€14€=€924€€pages€of€tables€beyond€those€printed€inÏthis€report.€€Ð ù*ô#4 Ðò òDescription€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ôó óÐ  ÐÌÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€calculates€exposures€to€carbon€monoxide€(CO),€or€other€mobile€source€pollutants,€overÏa€year,€for€all€the€people€in€a€given€metropolitan€area.€€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€does€not€estimate€the€exposure€ofÏindividuals,€but€of€an€entire€demographic€group€in€a€particular€air€district.€€In€the€model,€eachÏperson€in€the€group€is€effectively€interchangeable€with€any€other€person€in€the€group,€meaningÏthat€their€activities€are€all€selected€with€the€same€probabilities€from€the€same€database.€€ThisÏresults€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€providing€an€overall€population„weighted€average€exposure€for€theÏdemographic€group.€€Due€to€the€method€of€analyzing€air€quality€data,€the€model€does€not€provideÏestimates€for€time€periods€shorter€than€a€calendar€quarter.€€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€is€therefore€a€long„term,Ïpopulation€level€exposure€model€and€should€not€be€applied€either€to€individuals€or€to€shortÏduration€events.€€Due€to€the€large€data€files€and€long€execution€time,€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€is€run€on€theÏEPAððs€IBM€mainframe€computer.ÌÌThere€are€four€main€types€of€data€used€as€inputs€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô:Ìà  àCO€Monitoring€DataÌà  àTime„Activity€DataÌà  àÔ_ÔMicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€DataÌà  àPopulation€DataÌThe€output€from€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€provides€electronic€files€and€tables€summarizing€the€quarterly€andÏannual€exposure€for€each€demographic€group.€€These€tables€and€files€have€been€extended€toÏinclude€new€types€of€output€such€as€summaries€at€the€county€level€as€well€as€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_ÔÏexposures.€€The€details€of€these€enhancements€are€provided€later€in€this€report.ÌÌòòCO€Monitoring€Data:óóÐ 5(0!0 ÐÌThe€study€area€is€divided€into€districts,€which€are€roughly€circular€areas€of€diameter€20€kmÐ ù*ô#4 Ðaround€each€ambient€CO€monitor.€€Districts€are€actually€composed€of€a€whole€number€of€censusÏtracts.€€The€data€from€the€monitors€is€extracted€from€the€AIRS€database€prior€to€runningÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€€With€N€monitors,€there€are€N+1€districts.€€For€the€23€demographic€groups€there€are€€(5ÏNòò2óó€+€33€N€+€28€)€cohorts€(defined€by€their€demographic€groups,€home€locations,€and€workÐ + & Ðlocations)€.€€From€1€to€18€monitors€per€study€area€can€be€accommodated€in€the€current€version€ofÏthe€model.€€An€extra€district€(number€19€in€the€tables)€is€created€in€each€study€area€and€it€consistsÏof€those€areas€not€close€to€(i.e.€within€10€km€of€)€any€ambient€monitor.€€The€concentration€inÏdistrict€19€is€just€set€to€the€average€concentration€of€all€the€monitors€in€the€study€area.€€€BecauseÏthis€concentration€is€assumed€rather€than€measured,€exposure€estimates€for€district€19€are€not€asÏreliable€as€those€for€other€districts.€€In€the€results,€a€flag€has€been€created€to€indicate€countiesÏwith€estimates€that€are€based€largely€on€district€19€values.ÌÌIn€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô,€the€CO€monitoring€data€is€processed€by€the€two€programs€Ô_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ô€and€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô.€ÏThe€Ô_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ô€program€smooths€the€data€and€fills€in€missing€values€by€first€performing€a€FourierÏanalysis€on€the€year„long€time€series€of€hourly€values€at€each€monitor.€€The€most€significantÏterms€are€retained.€€Ô_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ô€uses€a€second„order€Ô_ÔautoregressiveÔ_Ô€technique€incorporating€aÏrandom€factor€to€estimate€the€missing€data.€€This€means€that€the€results€from€Ô_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ô€willÏdiffer€slightly€from€run€to€run€if€there€are€any€missing€data€in€the€original€time€series.€€TheÏÔ_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô€program€then€averages€the€smoothed€time€series€into€24€hourly€averages€for€eachÏquarter€of€the€year,€at€each€monitor.€€The€analysis€by€both€programs€is€done€independently€forÏeach€monitor,€so€the€inclusion€or€exclusion€of€other€monitors€in€the€study€area€does€not€affect€theÏresults.€€These€programs€have€not€been€functionally€changed€for€the€current€set€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs.€ÏThe€average€annual€concentration€at€each€monitor€as€calculated€by€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô€is€given€in€the€lastÏcolumn€of€Table€1,€for€comparison€to€the€mean€of€the€observed€(non„missing)€data.€€SmallÏdifferences€in€the€means€are€expected€since€the€filled€values€do€not€necessarily€have€the€sameÏaverage€as€the€rest€of€the€data.ÌÐ ù*ô#4 ЇòòTime€Activity€Data:óóÐ  ÐÌThe€time„activity€data€originally€comes€from€the€three„city€database€(data€from€Denver,ÏWashington€DC,€and€Cincinnati,€collected€in€1982„1985).€€The€records€are€specially€processedÏfor€use€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€The€file€currently€contains€€3568€person„days€of€data,€divided€into€8€statesÏ(combinations€of€three€binary€divisions:€winter/summer,€weekend/weekday,€and€warm/coolÏweather),€with€information€on€the€time€spent€during€each€clock€hour€in€each€of€37ÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô.€€The€warm/cool€division€for€the€states€is€set€at€84òòð-ðóóF€in€June,€July€andÐ ³®  ÐAugust,€and€at€55òòð-ðóóF€during€the€remaining€months.€€This€database€has€not€been€altered€from€theÐ   Ðone€used€in€previous€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€and€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€runs.€€ÌÌAlthough€the€time„activity€database€has€not€changed,€the€method€of€extracting€patterns€from€itÏhas€been€improved.€€Up€until€the€present€runs,€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€used€stochastic€sampling€to€extractÏrecords€from€this€activity€database,€selecting€a€random€time„activity€day€from€the€appropriateÏsubgroup€for€each€day€of€the€year.€€These€patterns€in€effect€are€realizations€of€annual€time„¼activity€patterns€created€by€repeated€independent€random€sampling€of€daily€patterns.€€TheÏexposure€estimates€therefore€apply€to€each€particular€realization,€rather€than€a€true€mean€over€allÏpossible€activity€patterns.€€€To€obtain€a€better€estimate€of€the€mean,€and€also€to€estimate€the€sizeÏof€this€stochastic€variation,€it€was€customary€to€repeat€the€entire€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs€typically€ten€timesÏeach.€With€the€changes€and€enhancements€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€(described€in€the€next€section),€this€featureÏwas€replaced€with€an€exact€calculation€of€the€mean€and€variance€associated€with€this€method€ofÏcreating€annual€activity€time„series.€€A€single€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€run€now€provides€all€the€information€(andÏmore)€than€the€ten€runs€did€previously.€€€€€€ÌÌThe€time„activity€database€(stored€on€the€EPAððs€IBM€mainframe€computer€under€the€file€nameÏÔ_ÔMEDUR.DATAÔ_Ô)€records€the€time€spent€in€each€of€the€37€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€duringÏeach€clock€hour€of€the€day.€€The€data€for€the€same€hours€on€all€the€days€in€each€calendar€quarterÐ ù*ô#4 Ðare€averaged€together€before€being€combined€with€concentration€data,€since€a€similar€averagingÏwas€already€carried€out€for€the€concentration€data€by€the€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô€program.€€ÌA€new€program€called€Ô_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ô€has€been€added€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€to€average€the€patterns€that€apply€toÏa€single€demographic€group.€€These€averages€are€used€for€the€hourly€and€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_ÔÏexposure€calculations.ÌÌòòÔ_ÔMicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€Data:óóÐ QL  ÐÌThe€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€are€entered€into€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€as€data,€and€can€be€varied€by€the€user.€ÏThe€values€used€in€the€current€runs€are€on€the€file€MEFILE5.€These€factors€are€derived€from€theÏfactors€used€in€previous€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs,€with€the€main€difference€that€the€additive€terms€are€all€setÏto€zero.€€This€choice€was€motivated€by€the€argument€that€the€multiplicative€factors€represent€theÏpenetration€of€ambient€CO€into€other€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô,€while€the€additive€terms€representÏsources€within€the€given€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô.€€The€goal€of€the€present€model€runs€was€to€estimateÏthe€exposure€to€ambient€CO€rather€than€total€CO.€€There€was€one€other€change€from€the€factorsÏused€in€previous€runs:€the€four€in„home€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€(#13„16)€were€combined€into€aÏsingle€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô,€since€these€four€differ€only€in€the€potential€for€local€(in„home)Ïemissions.€€A€€list€of€the€factors€used€for€the€current€analysis€is€given€in€Table€2.€€A€furtherÏdiscussion€of€the€choice€of€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€and€their€impact€on€the€exposureÏestimates€is€presented€in€the€sensitivity€analysis€report.ÌÌThe€Ô_ÔMECONCÔ_Ô€program€is€used€to€calculate€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€concentrations.€€It€must€beÏrun€after€the€two€air€quality€programs€(Ô_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ô€and€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô)€and€requires€a€file€ofÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors.€€The€file€of€factors€is€named€MEFILE5.€€The€results€from€Ô_ÔMECONCÔ_ÔÏare€stored€on€the€file€MECONC5.€€The€Ô_ÔMECONCÔ_Ô€program€must€be€run€before€the€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_ÔÏprogram.€€ÌÐ ù*ô#4 ÐòòPopulationóóÐ  ÐÌThe€1990€Census€provides€excellent€detail€on€home€location€and€on€demographic€groups,€andÏsomewhat€less€information€on€work€location.€€The€primary€census€unit€used€in€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_ÔÏmodel€is€the€census€tract,€which€typically€contains€about€5000€people.€€€The€study€areas€used€forÏthe€present€runs€contain€anywhere€from€100€to€4000€tracts.€€The€census€provides€the€number€ofÏpeople€in€each€demographic€group€living€in€each€tract,€and€also€the€distribution€of€commutingÏtimes€for€each€tract.€€For€previous€model€runs,€the€POP90€program€aggregated€the€populationÌdata€directly€to€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€district€(air€monitor)€level.€€Since€the€current€set€of€runs€require€theÏnew€feature€of€summarizing€exposure€by€county,€the€POP90€program€has€been€modified€toÏprovide€summaries€of€populations€for€each€€(county€x€district)€combination.€€ÌÌTwo€programs€are€used€in€the€commuting€calculations:€Ô_ÔTVLTIMEÔ_Ô€and€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô.€€The€Ô_ÔTVLTIMEÔ_ÔÏprogram€reads€the€census€commuting€times€and€creates€an€array€of€them€for€later€use€by€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô.€ÏThe€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô€program€has€been€rewritten€slightly€and€now€combines€the€functions€of€three€earlierÏprograms€(DIST,€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô,€and€Ô_ÔTTFRAÔ_Ô).€€€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô€calculates€the€number€of€people€whoÏcommute€from€any€one€census€tract€to€any€other.€€This€is€an€iterative€calculation€that€looks€for€aÏsolution€consistent€with€the€commuting€time€totals€from€the€census.€€Once€found,€the€results€areÏaggregated€up€to€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€air€district€level€and€stored€in€the€HOMEWORK€file.€ÌÌAll€of€the€above€pieces€can€be€considered€as€data€pre„processing.€€These€are€necessary€steps€priorÏto€the€actual€exposure€calculations.€€Previously,€the€exposure€calculations€were€carried€out€by€theÏMERGE€and€GRAPH€programs.€€For€the€current€runs,€these€have€been€replaced€by€the€newÏprograms€€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô€and€Ô_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_Ô.€€The€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô€program€calculates€exposure€by€countyÏand€also€by€air€district,€for€each€demographic€group€and€quarter€of€the€year.€The€Ô_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_ÔÏprogram€calculates€average€exposures€by€hour€of€the€day€and€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€for€eachÏdemographic€group,€on€a€city„wide€basis.€€€€€€€Ð ù*ô#4 Ðò òChanges€and€enhancements€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ôó óÐ  ÐÌÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€currently€is€comprised€of€ten€Fortran€programs€as€outlined€in€the€previous€section.€€€€€ÏThe€changes€made€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€for€the€current€runs€do€not€affect€the€nature€of€the€model€or€any€ofÏthe€model€assumptions,€but€serve€the€following€main€purposes:€Ìà  àÌà0  àà0` (#(#àà  à1)€to€add€new€features€to€the€output€tables€(including€county€and€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_ÔÐ ` (#` (# Ѐ€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€information,€as€well€as€more€detailed€percentile€and€Ô_ÔfractileÔ_Ô€tables),Ìà  à2)€to€give€exact€mean€and€variance€calculations€instead€of€stochastic€estimates,Ìà  à3)€to€obtain€results€for€all€demographic€groups€in€a€single€run,€andÌà  à4)€to€speed€up€program€execution.ÌÌThe€results€from€the€modified€programs€were€compared€to€previous€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs.€€This€wasÏdone€for€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€runs€for€San€Francisco€carried€out€in€1996.€€All€demographic€groupsÏwere€run€for€the€study€year€1990,€using€the€same€monitors€and€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€as€inÏthe€previous€runs€(presented€in€a€report€to€EPA€prepared€by€IT€Corporation€entitledÏððDevelopment€and€Evaluation€of€Enhancements€to€the€Hazardous€Air€Pollutant€Exposure€ModelÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3').€€The€results€from€the€two€sets€of€runs€agreed€within€the€stated€uncertainties.€€ÏThe€results€of€this€comparison€are€presented€in€greater€detail€in€the€quality€assurance€section.€€€InÏaddition,€a€separate€calculation€was€carried€out€in€SAS€to€test€the€algorithms€for€the€mean€andÏvariance€calculations€carried€out€in€the€new€Fortran€routines€added€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.Ì.€ÌThe€ten€programs€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€can€be€divided€into€three€groups:€those€that€did€not€change;€thoseÏwith€minor€changes;€and€new€programs.ÌÓ€ÓÐ  5(0!0 ÐÌÌà  àPROGRAMà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àCHANGESà0À(#(#àSUMMARY€DESCRIPTION€OF€CHANGESÐÝØÀ(#À(# ÐßA€+) °°xdE°È xAßà  àÐ É Ä Ðà  àÔ_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànoneà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àÐØ ÓÀ(#À(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànone€à0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àÐÄ ¿À(#À(# Ðà  àDIST90à0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànoneà0h(#(#àа «h(#h(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔTVLTIMEÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànoneМ —(#(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔODESTÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àminorà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àDIST,€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô,€Ô_ÔTTFRAÔ_Ô€combined€(to€run€faster)Ј ƒÀ(#À(# Ðà  àPOP90à0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àminorà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àCounty€level€information€retainedÐto À(#À(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔMECONCÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànewà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àUsed€to€be€part€of€MERGE,€now€separateÐ`[ À(#À(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànewà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àPart€of€mean€and€variance€calculationsÐLG À(#À(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànewà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àCreates€tables€by€county€and€air€districtÐ83 À(#À(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànewà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àCreates€tables€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€and€hour€€Ð$ À(#À(# ÐÌÌà  àÌÓ€ÓòòDetailed€Description€of€Program€ChangesóóÐ ÔÏ ÐÌÔ_ÔODESTÔ_ÔÌPreviously,€a€sequence€of€four€programs€(Ô_ÔTVLTIMEÔ_Ô,€DIST,€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô,€and€Ô_ÔTTFRAÔ_Ô)€had€to€be€runÏto€carry€out€the€commuting€algorithms€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€While€no€changes€in€functionality€have€beenÏmade€to€this€section€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô,€it€was€found€that€for€large€cities€these€programs€were€very€slowÏin€execution.€€Investigation€showed€that€both€DIST€and€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô€wrote€very€large€files€that€wereÏsubsequently€read€back€in€to€the€next€program€and€were€not€needed€by€any€other€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_ÔÏprograms.€€These€files€each€had€a€number€of€€records€equal€to€the€square€of€the€number€of€censusÏtracts€in€the€study€region.€€By€combining€the€code€of€the€last€three€commuting€programs,€aÏsubstantial€reduction€in€computing€time€was€achieved€(for€New€York€the€reduction€is€from€nearlyÏone€hour€on€the€IBM€mainframe€to€just€four€minutes).€€The€program€now€called€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô€uses€theÏsame€input€files€(Ô_ÔTVLTIMEÔ_Ô€and€DISTRICT)€and€output€file€(HOMEWORK€),€with€the€sameÏformat,€as€the€old€set€of€three€programs€used,€but€without€creating€any€intermediate€files.€€ÌÌÌPOP90Ð ô+ï$1 ÐTwo€features€have€been€added€to€the€POP90€program:€the€retention€of€county€information€andÏthe€ability€to€process€data€for€all€demographic€groups€in€one€run.€€The€program€reads€in€censusÏtract€information€which€includes€the€state€and€county€Ô_ÔFIPSÔ_Ô€(Federal€Information€ProcessingÏStandard)€codes€as€part€of€the€tract€ID.€€A€list€of€distinct€counties€is€created€and€sorted€in€Ô_ÔFIPSÔ_ÔÏorder.€€In€order€to€process€all€the€demographic€groups,€the€majority€of€the€POP90€program€wasÏput€into€a€long€loop€which€is€run€once€for€each€group.€€The€final€step€in€this€loop€is€to€rewind€allÏthe€input€files€for€re„use€for€the€next€demographic€group.€€This€was€the€easiest€way€(i.e.€leastÏlikely€to€introduce€new€programming€errors)€to€modify€the€program,€although€it€would€be€moreÏefficient€to€read€the€files€just€once€and€simultaneously€apply€the€information€to€all€theÏdemographic€groups.€€ÌÌÔ_ÔMECONCÔ_ÔÌThis€is€a€short€program€that€combines€the€ambient€air€data€from€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô€with€theÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€to€calculate€CO€concentrations€in€each€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô.€€This€taskÏwas€previously€carried€out€in€the€MERGE€program,€which€is€no€longer€used.€€It€would€also€beÏpossible€in€future€to€combine€this€task€with€the€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô€program,€thereby€reducing€the€numberÏof€programs€by€one.€€This€was€not€done€at€present€because€of€the€need€to€test€the€new€programsÏusing€a€special€Ô_ÔMECONCÔ_Ô€file.€€€This€file€(called€DUMMY)€had€all€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_ÔÏconcentrations€set€to€a€single€value€(1.0€Ô_ÔppmÔ_Ô),€so€that€errors€in€the€exposure€calculation€could€beÏeasily€detected.€€The€results€from€this€testing€are€described€in€the€quality€assurance€chapter.€ÌÌÔ_ÔDURAVGÔ_ÔÌThis€program€averages€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€durations€of€all€individuals€in€a€demographicÏgroup.€€The€criteria€for€demographic€group€membership€are€defined€in€this€program€and€appliedÏto€the€records€in€the€time„activity€database.€€€The€results€are€used€by€the€Ô_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_Ô€program€toÏcalculate€exposures€at€the€hourly€and€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€level.€€€Note€that€Ô_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ô€is€the€onlyÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€program€that€needs€to€be€run€only€once,€as€it€applies€to€all€study€areas€as€long€as€the€setÐ ù*ô#4 Ðof€demographic€groups€does€not€change.€€In€fact,€the€output€file€(stored€as€Ô_ÔAVMEDUR.DATAÔ_Ô)Ïcan€simply€be€regarded€as€an€additional€part€of€the€activity€database.€€ÌÌÔ_ÔEXPCODIÔ_ÔÌThis€program€first€calculates€exposure„days€of€data€for€each€air€district€for€each€person„day€in€theÏtime„activity€database.€€Separate€home€and€work€exposures€are€calculated€for€each€air€district,Ïwhich€are€later€combined€with€the€commuting€data€to€produce€cohort€exposures.€€€This€procedureÏreduces€the€number€of€exposures€calculated€for€each€person€in€the€time„activity€database€from€theÏsquare€of€the€number€of€districts€to€just€twice€the€number€of€districts.€€In€previous€sets€of€runs,ÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€used€the€person„day€as€the€unit€for€assembling€a€year„long€time„activity€time€series€byÏstochastic€Ô_ÔresamplingÔ_Ô.€€The€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô€program€allows€the€results€of€this€process€to€be€evaluatedÏby€direct€calculation,€since€the€mean€and€variance€of€a€random€sample€can€be€calculated€directlyÏfrom€the€characteristics€of€the€universe€that€the€sample€is€drawn€from.€€€These€steps€obviate€theÏneed€to€perform€repeated€runs€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô,€thus€saving€time,€computer€resources,€and€eliminatingÏthe€need€for€extensive€post„processing.€€ÌÌThe€daily€exposures€are€then€summed€by€demographic€group,€home€district,€work€district,€quarterÏof€the€year,€and€time„activity€state€(weekend/weekday,€etc.).€€The€data€are€combined€with€theÏoutput€from€the€POP90€program€(the€Ô_ÔPOPALLÔ_Ô€files)€and€the€results€of€the€commuting€algorithmÏ(the€HOMEWORK€files)€to€determine€the€number€of€people€in€each€category.€€This€allows€bothÏthe€creation€of€the€exposure€tables€(by€county€and€district)€and€the€calculation€of€population„¼weighted€averages.€€Each€table€reports€the€mean€and€standard€deviation€for€the€average€exposureÏrate€(in€micrograms€per€cubic€meter)€for€each€quarter€and€annually,€for€all€the€demographicÏgroups.€€There€is€one€such€table€for€each€county€and€one€for€each€air€district€in€the€study€area.€ÏThis€program€also€produces€a€similar€single€city„wide€average€table.€€The€tables€are€storedÏelectronically€and€can€easily€be€imported€into€a€word€processor€for€manipulation€and€printing.ÏThe€county€tables€are€stored€in€a€directory€named€Ô_ÔEXPCOÔ_Ô€and€the€district€tables€are€stored€inÐ ù*ô#4 ÐÔ_ÔEXPDIÔ_Ô.€ÌÌÌÔ_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_ÔÌThis€program€is€similar€to€the€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô€program,€except€that€instead€of€printing€tables€byÏgeographical€divisions,€it€creates€tables€of€exposure€for€all€demographic€groups€by€temporalÏ(hour€of€the€day)€and€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€divisions.€€For€the€hourly€tables,€the€mean€exposure€Ìand€the€percentage€of€daily€exposure€obtained€each€hour€are€reported.€€There€€are€two€types€ofÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€tables:€one€reporting€the€total€accumulated€exposure€(in€Ô_ÔððgÔ_Ô/Ô_Ômòò3Ô_Ôóó„year)€alongÐ   Ðwith€the€percentage€of€the€total€obtained€in€each€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô;€and€the€other€reporting€theÏaverage€concentration€and€duration€in€each€of€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô.€€Both€of€these€tablesÏpertain€to€all€persons€in€the€study€area.€€Note€that€due€to€the€way€in€which€year„long€time„activityÏsequences€are€assembled€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô,€the€calculation€of€a€variance€for€these€tables€would€beÏdifficult€since€there€is€significant€covariance€between€different€hours€or€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô.€ÏThat€problem€is€beyond€the€scope€of€the€current€project.€€The€hourly€tables€are€stored€in€aÏdirectory€€named€Ô_ÔEXPHRÔ_Ô€and€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€tables€are€stored€in€Ô_ÔEXPMEÔ_Ô.€ÌÌÌÌJob€Control€Language€(JCL)€FilesÌÌTo€perform€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs€for€the€fourteen€study€areas,€each€of€the€9€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€programs€(notÏcounting€Ô_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ô)€had€to€be€run€14€times€each,€a€total€of€126€small€jobs€on€the€IBM.€Ï(Ô_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ô€was€only€run€once).€€Also,€each€of€the€programs€needs€compilation€before€being€runÏthe€first€time.€€These€small€jobs€can€be€batched€together€in€one€of€two€ways:€either€a€singleÏprogram€is€compiled€and€run€14€times€(once€per€study€area)€in€a€single€job,€or€else€all€theÏprograms€could€be€applied€to€one€study€area€in€a€single€batch€job.€€The€former€method€isÐ ù*ô#4 Ðpreferable€if€the€programs€are€still€under€development€and€testing.€€The€latter€method€would€beÏpreferable€if€the€code€is€not€being€changed,€and€the€user€wished€to€apply€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€to€another€city.€ÏSince€several€of€the€programs€had€to€be€modified€and€checked€during€the€course€of€this€project,Ïthe€former€method€of€organization€is€used.€€All€of€the€programs€except€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô€and€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_ÔÏcan€process€all€14€study€areas€in€less€than€five€minutes€of€CPU,€which€is€a€system€cutoff€used€forÏthe€fast€processing€queue.€€€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô€can€be€run€for€all€13€cities€excluding€New€York€in€less€thanÏfive€minutes,€and€New€York€alone€takes€another€four€minutes.€€The€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô€program€takesÏabout€65€seconds€per€study€area€(independent€of€population),€so€four€study€areas€can€be€run€at€aÏtime€in€the€fast€queue.€€All€told,€the€14€study€areas€require€a€total€of€37€minutes€of€CPU€toÏcompile€and€run€the€complete€set€of€programs.€Ì€€Ð  ÙÔ  Ðò òData€Handling€and€Data€Management€ó óÐ  ÐÌThe€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€model€requires€several€types€of€data€as€inputs€to€the€exposure€calculations.€€€ÏHourly€ambient€CO€monitoring€data,€hourly€ambient€temperature€data,€U.S.€census€populationÏdata,€and€duration€of€activity€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€data€from€the€time„activity€database€areÏprocessed€by€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€programs€into€forms€that€are€used€in€the€exposure€calculations.€€TheÏsources,€€handling,€€and€management€of€this€raw€data€are€discussed€in€this€section.ÌÌòòFile€StructureóóÐ   ÐWith€fourteen€different€study€areas€and€the€potential€for€running€multiple€years€within€studyÏareas€(not€carried€out€under€the€present€task),€the€problem€of€organizing€data€is€crucial.€€ÌThe€data€that€vary€with€study€area€or€time€were€placed€in€partitioned€data€sets€on€the€IBMÏmainframe.€€Each€study€area€was€labeled€with€a€three€character€code€derived€from€its€name,€andÏfor€time€varying€data€the€year€was€added€as€a€suffix.€€For€example,€the€data€for€Denver€for€1990Ïare€found€in€members€named€(Den90).€€All€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€files€now€follow€this€convention.ÌÓ€ÓÌà  àSTUDY€AREA€à0  àà0h(#(#àSTATE(S)à0h(#h(#àà0p(#(#àABBREVIATIONЯªp(#p(# ÐÌà  àBaltimoreà0 ¸ à€€à0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àMDà0Àh(#h(#àà0À(#À(#àà0p(#(#àÔ_ÔBALÔ_ÔЇ‚!p(#p(# Ðà  àBostonà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔMA,NHÔ_Ôà0h(#h(#àà0p(#(#àBOSÐsn"p(#p(# Ðà  àChicagoà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔIL,INÔ_Ôà0Àh(#h(#àà0À(#À(#àà0p(#(#àCHIÐ_ Z#p(#p(# Ðà  àDenverà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àCOà0Àh(#h(#àà0À(#À(#àà0p(#(#àDENÐK!F$p(#p(# Ðà  àHoustonà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àTXà0Àh(#h(#àà0À(#À(#àà0p(#(#àÔ_ÔHOUÔ_ÔÐ7"2%p(#p(# Ðà  àLos€Angelesà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àCAà0Àh(#h(#àà0À(#À(#àà0p(#(#àLAXÐ##&p(#p(# Ðà  àMinneapolis€/€Ô_ÔSt.PaulÔ_Ôà0  àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔMN,WIÔ_Ôà0h(#h(#àà0p(#(#àÔ_ÔMSPÔ_ÔÐ$ 'p(#p(# Ðà  àNew€York€Cityà0  àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔNY,NJ,CTÔ_Ôà0h(#h(#àà0p(#(#àNYCÐû$ö(p(#p(# Ðà  àPhiladelphiaà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔPA,NJ,DEÔ_Ôà0h(#h(#àà0p(#(#àÔ_ÔPHLÔ_ÔÐç%â)p(#p(# Ðà  àPhoenixà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àAZà0Àh(#h(#àà0À(#À(#àà0p(#(#àÔ_ÔPHXÔ_ÔÐÓ&Î*p(#p(# Ðà  àSan€Franciscoà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àCAà0Àh(#h(#àà0À(#À(#àà0p(#(#àÔ_ÔSFBÔ_Ôп'º +p(#p(# Ðà  àSpokaneà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àWAà0Àh(#h(#àà0À(#À(#àà0p(#(#àÔ_ÔSPOÔ_ÔЫ(¦!,p(#p(# Ðà  àSt.€Louisà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔMO,ILÔ_Ôà0h(#h(#àà0p(#(#àÔ_ÔSTLÔ_ÔЗ)’"-p(#p(# Ðà  àWashington€D.C.à0  àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔDC,VA,MDÔ_Ôà0h(#h(#àà0p(#(#àÔ_ÔWDCÔ_ÔЃ*~#.p(#p(# ÐÓ€ÓÐ o+j$/ ЇòòAir€Quality€DataóóÐ  ÐHourly€average€CO€monitoring€data€were€obtained€from€the€U.S.€EPA€òòÔ_ÔAóóerometricÔ_Ô€òòIóónformationÐ gb Ðand€òòRóóetrieval€òòSóóystem€(AIRS)€by€means€of€interactive€menus€on€the€U.S.€EPA€mainframe€IBMÐ É Ä Ðcomputer.€€Initially,€all€of€the€hourly€average€CO€monitoring€data€for€the€entire€U.S.€for€theÏcalendar€year€1990€was€extracted€from€AIRS€in€Ô_ÔEBCDICÔ_Ô€files€maintained€on€the€mainframeÏcomputer.€€The€extracted€files€contain€coordinate€information€on€the€geographic€location€of€Ïmonitors€that€was€used€to€obtain€specific€monitoring€data€for€a€particular€urban€area.€€A€summaryÏof€the€hourly€average€CO€monitoring€data€for€calendar€year€1990€that€was€used€in€each€urbanÏarea€is€shown€in€Table€1.ÌÌTable€1€shows€the€urban€area,€€€AIRS€monitor€ID,€€the€Ô_ÔUTMÔ_Ô€zone€and€coordinates,€the€distanceÏform€the€city€center,€€the€number€of€valid€hourly€average€CO€values€for€calendar€year€1990,€theÏminimum,€mean,€and€maximum€hourly€average€concentrations€for€the€year,€and€the€averageÏconcentration€as€calculated€by€the€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô€program€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€€The€first€line€for€each€cityÏ(monitor€0)€is€not€a€monitor€but€is€the€location€of€the€designated€city€center.€€The€city€centerÏlocations€were€generally€the€same€ones€used€in€earlier€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs€(Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€runs€for€theÏyear€1988).€€The€San€Francisco€city€center€was€moved€slightly€to€allow€inclusion€of€the€monitorsÏin€Contra€Costa€county,€and€new€city€centers€were€designated€for€Baltimore€and€Chicago,€whichÏwere€not€run€previously.€€The€number€of€valid€observations€and€the€maximum€hourly€averageÏconcentration€were€compared€to€values€in€the€AIRS€data€base€using€an€online€browse€facility€inÏAIRS.€€These€matched€exactly€in€the€extracted€data€and€the€data€shown€in€the€AIRS€browseÏfacility.€€Only€those€monitors€with€at€least€75%€data€capture€were€used€in€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs.€ÏAlso,€in€the€case€of€co„located€monitors,€only€the€monitor€with€the€fewer€number€of€missingÏvalues€was€used.€€The€deleted€monitors€are€marked€with€Ô_ÔSITENUMÔ_Ô=ððxðð€and€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô=ððÔ_ÔxxxxÔ_Ôðð.€ÏThe€AIRS€formatted€Ô_ÔEBCDICÔ_Ô€files€of€hourly€average€CO€data€are€used€directly€in€the€programÏÔ_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ô€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€€The€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô€results€are€printed€here€in€part€as€a€check€that€the€dataÏreally€are€for€the€intended€monitor.€€The€monitor€numbers€and€locations€must€be€specified€in€theÐ ù*ô#4 ÐDIST90€program,€which€does€not€examine€the€AIRS€files€directly.€€€The€€Ô_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ô€programÏprocesses€all€data€on€the€AIRS€files€without€checking€the€monitor€numbers€or€locations.€€It€isÏtherefore€very€easy€to€create€incompatible€lists€in€the€two€sections€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€The€user€mustÏtherefore€be€careful€to€check€that€the€monitor€lists€agree€in€both€number€and€order.€€A€mistake€inÏnumber€is€usually€manifest€as€a€monitor€with€all€zero€concentrations.€€A€mistake€in€order€resultsÏin€two€monitors€having€each€otherððs€data€(and€hence€mean€concentration).€€These€problems€wereÏchecked€for€and€eliminated€from€the€model€runs.€ÌÌòòÔ_ÔMicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€FactorsóóÐ   ÐThe€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€are€used€to€estimate€concentration€for€each€of€the€37€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_ÔÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô,€which€are€modeled€as€linear€functions€of€the€ambient€concentration.€€€TheÏfactors€used€for€the€present€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs€were€a€modified€version€of€factors€used€in€earlier€runs.€ÏThe€major€change€is€that€the€additive€terms€were€all€set€to€zero€in€the€current€runs,€to€eliminateÏnon„ambient€sources.€€A€second€change€from€previous€sets€of€factors€is€that€the€four€residentialÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€have€been€combined,€using€a€common€factor€which€is€the€average€of€the€fourÏseparate€factors€used€previously.€€€The€factors€used€for€the€current€set€of€model€runs€are€listed€inÏTable€2.ÌÌÌòòMeteorological€DataóóÐ K!F& ÐHourly€average€temperature€data€was€obtained€in€hourly€format€for€each€of€the€fourteen€urbanÏareas€for€calendar€year€1990.€€€A€PC„SAS€program€called€Ô_ÔMET.SASÔ_Ô€was€written€to€calculateÏdaily€mean€and€maximum€and€write€these€values€to€files€in€the€format€used€by€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€TheÏfiles€were€then€transferred€to€the€IBM€mainframe€as€members€of€a€partitioned€data€set.€ÌÌThe€only€function€of€the€meteorological€data€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€is€to€select€activity€patterns€based€on€aÏdistinction€between€ððwarmðð€and€ððcoolðð€days.€€The€winter€and€summer€seasons€have€differentÐ ù*ô#4 Ðdefinitions:€warm€days€start€at€55òòð-ðóóF€and€84òòð-ðóóF€in€winter€and€summer,€respectively.€€The€frequencyÐ  Ðof€warm€and€cool€days€for€each€calendar€quarter€is€given€in€Table€3€for€each€of€the€fourteen€studyÏareas.€€€ÌÌòòPopulation€DataóóÐ  ˆ ÐThe€1990€U.S.€tract€level€population€data€was€provided€by€the€EPA€in€the€form€of€three€files€perÏstudy€area.€€(There€were€too€many€variables€for€their€software€to€handle€on€a€single€file).€€A€PC„¼SAS€program€called€Ô_ÔALLCITIES.SASÔ_Ô€was€written€to€read€these€files€and€reorganize€the€data€intoÏ25€output€directories€as€required€by€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€Each€of€these€directories€contained€fourteen€filesÏ(one€file€per€study€area).€€Upon€transfer€to€the€IBM,€each€directory€became€a€partitioned€data€setÏand€each€file€became€a€member.€€ÌÌThe€population€files€did€not€always€completely€cover€the€intended€study€area.€€The€three€mainÏareas€that€were€missing€were€Union€County€NJ€(part€of€NYC);€Alexandria€and€Fairfax€cities€inÏVirginia€(part€of€Ô_ÔWDCÔ_Ô);€and€the€Illinois€counties€near€St.€Louis€(Ô_ÔSTLÔ_Ô).€€€The€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€modelÏprocessed€all€available€data.€€The€missing€data€do€not€affect€the€estimates€for€the€other€countiesÏin€their€study€areas€at€all€for€the€18€non„commuting€demographic€groups,€and€have€at€most€aÏsmall€effect€on€the€commuting€patterns€for€the€remaining€five€demographic€groups€since€theÏcentral€city€areas€were€not€missing€in€any€of€these€cases.ÌÌThe€populations€of€specific€demographic€groups€appear€in€the€county€and€district€tables€inÏAppendices€A1„A14.€€€These€values€are€consistent€with€the€census€definitions€for€all€but€the€threeÏdemographic€groups€(outdoor€children,€outdoor€workers,€and€heart€and€respiratory€problems)€thatÏare€not€directly€based€on€census€data.€€€Some€explanatory€notes€regarding€the€calculation€andÏmeaning€of€these€populations€are€provided€in€the€results€section.€€ÌÌTable€4€summarizes€the€population€data€used€in€the€model€runs.€€For€each€county,€the€totalÐ ù*ô#4 Ðpopulation€from€the€census,€and€the€population€in€the€portion€of€the€county€inside€the€study€areaÏare€given.€€A€flag€is€also€provided.€€There€are€two€criteria€which€may€set€the€flag:€a)€if€Ô_ÔHAPPOPÔ_ÔÏis€less€than€half€of€the€census€population,€and€b)€if€the€population€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€monitor€districts€1„¼18€totals€less€than€a€quarter€of€€the€census€population.€€If€either€condition€is€met€then€the€flag€isÏset€to€one.€€Table€4€is€also€used€to€report€average€exposure€level€by€county,€which€is€a€modelingÏresult€and€is€discussed€in€a€later€section€of€the€report.ÌÌòòTime„Activity€DataóóÐ ³®  ÐThe€time„activity€database€containing€duration€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€was€supplied€with€theÏcurrent€version€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€€No€additional€activity€survey€data€were€added€(or€deleted)€for€theÏcurrent€runs,€but€the€existing€data€were€reorganized€into€array€form€of€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€by€hourÏby€home„work,€while€standardizing€the€record€lengths€for€all€the€person„days.€This€allowed€for€aÏsimplification€of€the€programs€to€read€and€process€data€that€were€already€in€array€form.€€ThereÏare€3568€person„days€of€data.€€€The€time„activity€file€is€named€Ô_ÔMEDUR.DATAÔ_Ô.€€€As€one€of€theÏfirst€steps€in€the€model€runs,€the€program€Ô_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ô€was€run€to€calculate€averages€for€each€Ïdemographic€group.€€This€summarized€activity€data€is€stored€on€the€file€Ô_ÔAVMEDUR.DATAÔ_Ô.€€€ÌÐ  %   ÐÑe°Ñò òResultsó óÐ  ÐÌThe€foregoing€sections€of€this€report€detail€the€changes€and€enhancements€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€that€wereÏcarried€out€for€the€calculation€of€population€exposure€to€CO€in€fourteen€urban€areas.€€€The€majorÏresult€of€the€modifications€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€are€twofold.€€€The€range€of€calculations€that€can€be€carriedÏout€by€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€has€been€extended€in€certain€directions€(e.g.€calculation€of€exposure€byÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô).€€The€second€result€is€that€file€management€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€output€files€can€beÏcarried€out€in€an€efficient€manner.€€Since€there€are€no€longer€multiple€runs€for€simulation€ofÏspecific€sequences€of€daily€activity€patterns€over€a€quarter€or€year,€€the€number€of€output€files€toÏbe€managed€in€any€run€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€has€been€reduced€significantly.€€€Results€for€multiple€citiesÏcan€be€shared€in€partitioned€data€sets€so€that€single€data€sets€are€used€to€accumulate€outputs€fromÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€ÌÌDetailed€CO€exposure€results€from€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs€are€given€in€tables€in€Appendices€A1€„€A14Ïto€this€report;€one€section€for€each€of€the€fourteen€study€areas.€€For€every€study€area€the€followingÏtables€are€provided:Ìà  à1)€city„wide€exposure€by€quarter€and€annually€for€all€demographic€groups,Ìà  à2)€county€level€exposure€by€quarter€and€annually€for€all€demographic€groups,Ìà  à3)€air€district€tables€of€exposure€by€quarter€and€annually€for€all€demographic€groups,Ìà  à4)€a€table€of€percentile€distribution€of€annual€citywide€exposure€for€all€persons,Ìà  à5)€a€table€of€Ô_ÔfractilesÔ_Ô€of€annual€citywide€exposure€for€all€persons,à0  àЭ"¨( (# (# Ðà  à6)€a€table€of€citywide€accumulated€exposure€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€for€all€personsÌà  à7)€a€table€of€citywide€average€concentration€and€duration€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô,€Ìà  à8)€a€table€of€citywide€average€hourly€exposure€for€all€persons€(diurnals).à0 x àÐÓ&Î.x(#x(# ÐIn€addition,€a€map€of€each€study€area€is€provided€in€Appendix€B.ÌÌExcept€for€the€tables€of€accumulated€exposure€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô,€all€the€other€exposureÏtables€report€exposure€in€units€of€micrograms€per€cubic€meter€(Ô_ÔððgÔ_Ô/Ô_Ôm3Ô_Ô).€€This€is€not€strictly€anÐ [,V%6 Ðexposure,€which€should€have€the€units€of€(concentration€x€time),€but€an€exposure€rate.€€ItÏrepresents€the€time„weighted€average€concentration€to€which€the€group€is€exposed€over€the€timeÏperiod€of€interest.€€€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€has€traditionally€expressed€exposures€in€this€way,€which€allows€forÏeasier€comparisons€between€different€time€periods,€such€as€hourly,€daily,€quarterly,€and€annualÏexposures.€€The€exception€to€this€is€the€table€of€accumulated€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€exposures,Ïwhich€depend€heavily€on€duration€and€indicate€the€relative€contributions€of€eachÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€to€the€total.€€The€second€table€showing€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€breakoutsÏindicates€the€average€concentrations€and€durations€that€compose€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_ÔÏexposure.€€ÌÌòòExposure€ResultsóóÐ ÙÔ  ÐTable€4€contains€county€level€populations€and€annual€exposure€levels€for€all€persons.€€The€censusÏpopulation€(for€the€entire€county)€is€given€in€the€CENSUS€column.€€The€population€of€the€part€ofÏthe€county€included€in€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€run€is€in€the€column€labeled€Ô_ÔHAPPOPÔ_Ô.€€For€counties€whichÏare€only€partly€in€the€study€area€this€number€is€less€than€the€total€county€population.€€The€flagÏindicates€whether€or€not€the€county€passes€both€of€the€population€criteria.€€The€first€of€these€isÏthat€at€least€half€of€the€county€population€be€included€in€the€study€area.€€The€second€is€that€atÏleast€a€quarter€of€the€county€population€be€within€10€km€of€an€ambient€monitor€(i.e.€in€districts€Ì1„18).€€If€both€conditions€are€met€then€the€FLAG€variable€is€set€to€zero€and€the€exposureÏestimates€on€the€maps€in€Appendix€B€are€colored€in€green.€€If€either€condition€is€not€met€thenÏFLAG=1,€and€the€bar€on€the€map€is€colored€yellow.€€ÌÌòòCity„Wide€and€County„Wide€TablesóóÐ q%l, ÐThe€city„wide€and€county„wide€tables€share€the€same€format;€€both€provide€the€mean€and€theÏstandard€deviation€of€CO€exposures€in€micrograms€per€cubic€meter€(Ô_ÔððgÔ_Ô/Ô_Ôm3Ô_Ô)€by€calendar€quarterÏand€annually€for€the€twenty€three€demographic€groups€considered€for€this€report.€€In€addition,€€theÏpopulation€numbers€as€used€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€for€each€demographic€group€are€listed€in€a€separateÏcolumn€of€the€output.€€In€the€header€on€each€page€are€the€total€county€population,€the€populationÐ [,V%6 Ðin€the€area€used€by€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô,€and€the€population€assigned€to€district€19€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€(which€is€theÏdistrict€composed€of€all€tracts€not€within€10€km€of€any€air€monitor).€€The€larger€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_ÔÏpopulation€and€the€smaller€the€District€19€population,€the€more€reliable€are€the€exposureÏestimates.€€At€the€end€of€the€header€the€estimates€either€pass€or€do€not€pass€the€population€criteriaÏ(this€is€the€flag€discussed€in€Table€4).€€€At€the€bottom€of€each€page€the€final€five€lines€identify€the€Ïdemographic€group€with€the€highest€exposure€in€each€quarter€and€annually.€€€There€is€one€city„¼wide€table€for€each€study€area,€and€one€table€per€county€(from€1€to€18€additional€tables€per€studyÏarea).ÌÌòòAir€District€TablesóóÐ wr  ÐThe€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€model€divides€the€study€area€into€a€set€of€non„overlapping€air€districts,€which€areÏcomposed€of€census€tracts€located€within€10€km€of€an€ambient€carbon€monoxide€monitor.€€ThereÏis€one€air€district€per€monitor,€plus€an€additional€district€(#€19)€which€is€assigned€the€city„wideÏaverage€concentration€(i.e.€the€average€of€all€the€monitors).€€The€tables€by€air€district€have€theÏsame€format€as€the€city„wide€and€county€level€tables,€showing€the€mean€and€standard€deviationÏof€exposure€both€quarterly€and€annually,€along€with€the€identification€of€the€demographic€groupsÏwith€the€highest€exposures.€€€There€are€from€five€to€seventeen€air€districts€in€each€study€area.ÌÌòòHourly€(Diurnal)€Exposure€TablesóóÐ éä$ ÐA€table€of€the€calendar€quarter€and€annual€average€CO€exposures€by€hour€of€the€day€is€includedÏfor€each€study€area.€€€The€table€applies€to€all€persons€in€the€study€area..€€The€table€reports€theÏaverage€hourly€exposure€in€Ô_ÔððgÔ_Ô/Ô_Ôm3Ô_Ô€and€the€percent€of€the€daily€total€exposure€obtained€during€thatÏhour.€€If€exposure€were€constant,€each€hour€would€contribute€4.17%€of€the€daily€total.€€€Hour€1€inÏthe€table€corresponds€to€the€hour€between€midnight€and€1€a.m.,€and€so€on.€€All€times€are€localÏand€refer€to€daylight€savings€time€when€applicable.€€€ÌÌThe€hourly€tables€do€not€include€an€estimation€of€€the€variance€due€to€selection€of€activityÏpatterns.€€Unlike€the€quarterly€and€annual€totals,€it€is€difficult€to€calculate€the€variation€for€theÐ [,V%6 Ðhourly€exposures€due€to€the€significant€covariance€between€hours.€€If€estimates€of€variance€wereÏdesired,€then€the€easiest€way€would€be€to€use€a€Monte€Carlo€approach€involving€multiple€runs€toÏgauge€the€extent€of€this€variation.ÌÌòòÔ_ÔMicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€Exposure€TablesóóÐ  ˆ ÐThe€exposures€per€quarter€and€annually€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€are€presented€in€two€tables€for€eachÏstudy€area.€€The€first€table€gives€the€accumulated€exposure€and€the€percentage€of€the€total€acrossÏall€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô.€€This€table€is€useful€in€distinguishing€the€relative€importance€of€theÏvarious€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€to€the€long„term€total€exposure.€€The€second€table€reports€the€averageÏconcentrations€and€durations€in€each€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô.€€As€discussed€in€the€uncertainty€sectionÏof€the€report,€these€tables€should€be€used€with€caution€as€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€with€long€totalÏdurations€are€based€on€relatively€more€sample€data,€and€hence€have€more€reliable€durations€andÏconcentrations€than€do€those€with€short€total€duration.€€€The€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€model€is€designed€toÏestimate€the€total€exposure€over€a€year€(or€quarter),€and€these€totals€have€less€relative€error€thanÏthe€total€for€any€one€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô.€€As€for€the€hourly€tables,€due€to€covariance€in€exposureÏamong€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô,€it€is€difficult€to€calculate€variances€computationally.€€If€an€estimateÏwere€necessary,€then€a€Monte€Carlo€approach€could€be€used€although€this€would€substantiallyÏincrease€the€computer€time€needed€for€the€modeling.€ÌÌòòPercentiles€and€Ô_ÔFractilesÔ_ÔóóÐ K!F& ÐCharacterizations€of€the€distribution€of€exposure€to€CO€across€a€study€area€for€a€singleÏdemographic€group€(All€persons)€are€presented€in€tables€of€selected€percentiles€and€Ô_ÔfractilesÔ_Ô.€€ÏSince€the€city„wide€annual€CO€exposure€represents€a€population€weighted€average€across€all€airÏdistricts,€€the€variation€in€annual€CO€exposure€of€differences€between€air€districts€due€to€airÏquality€are€to€a€large€extent€averaged€out.€€€This€leads€to€a€very€small€standard€deviation€for€theÏcity„wide€annual€CO€exposure.€€Thus,€the€distribution€based€on€the€city„wide€annual€COÏexposure€is€very€narrow€and€does€not€capture€the€range€of€annual€CO€exposures€seen€across€airÏdistricts.€€€To€better€characterize€the€distribution€of€annual€CO€exposures€across€air€districts€in€aÐ [,V%6 Ðstudy€area,€the€following€procedure€was€adopted.ÌÌA€normal€distribution€of€annual€CO€exposure€was€constructed€for€each€air€district€in€a€study€areaÏusing€the€mean€and€standard€deviation€of€annual€CO€exposure€as€calculated€for€the€air€district€byÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€€The€total€mass€of€the€normal€distribution€for€a€particular€air€district€was€set€to€beÏproportional€to€the€percent€of€the€total€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€population€represented€by€the€air€district.€€TheÏsum€of€the€proportionality€factors€across€all€air€districts€(i.e.€for€the€study€area)€was€set€to€unity.€€ÏThus€a€population€weighted€distribution€for€annual€CO€exposure€was€constructed€for€the€wholeÏstudy€area.ÌÌThe€population€weighted€distribution€for€annual€CO€exposure€was€used€to€calculate€percentilesÏand€Ô_ÔfractilesÔ_Ô€for€annual€CO€exposure€in€the€usual€manner.€€€That€is,€€€for€the€Ô_ÔfractileÔ_Ô€calculation,€€Ïthe€level€of€the€annual€CO€exposure€was€set€and€the€percent€of€the€population€weightedÏdistribution€at€or€below€the€fixed€level€was€computed€by€summing€the€contributions€(in€percent)Ïfrom€the€portions€of€the€individual€air€district€distributions€at€or€below€the€fixed€level€of€annualÏCO€exposure.€€€Similarly€for€the€percentile€calculation,€€the€desired€percentile€was€fixed.€€€TheÏtotal€percent€of€the€annual€CO€exposure€was€accumulated€across€air€districts€for€increasing€levelsÏof€annual€CO€exposure€until€it€matched€the€fixed€percentile.€€The€value€of€the€annual€COÏexposure€at€this€point€is€taken€as€the€value€of€the€fixed€percentile.ÌÌThe€procedure€described€above€for€the€construction€of€percentiles€and€Ô_ÔfractilesÔ_Ô€for€annual€COÏexposure€across€a€study€area€is€not€to€be€interpreted€as€characterizing€the€distribution€of€annualÏCO€exposure€across€individuals€in€the€study€area.€€€The€calculations€pertain€to€variations€betweenÏthe€annual€CO€exposures€computed€from€the€annual€activity€sequences€as€composed€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€ÏAs€discussed€in€the€chapter€on€uncertainty€analysis,€€€other€ways€to€construct€annual€activityÏpatterns€can€be€considered€that€better€represent€activity€patterns€for€individuals.ÌÌòòPercentile€TablesóóÐ [,V%6 ÐA€table€of€percentiles€of€the€city„wide€annual€exposure€distribution€for€each€demographic€groupÏis€presented€for€each€study€area.€€€The€values€in€these€tables€indicate€the€average€concentrationsÏbelow€which€certain€proportions€of€the€demographic€group€population€are€exposed.€€The€pointsÏrepresented€in€these€tables€are€the€Ô_ÔquartilesÔ_Ô€and€the€90òòthóó,€95òòthóó,€and€99òòthóó€€percentiles€of€theÐ + & Ðdistribution.€€Most€of€the€variation€within€a€demographic€group€arises€from€the€distribution€of€theÏgroup€among€the€various€monitor€districts.€€Within€any€one€district,€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€does€not€adequatelyÏcapture€the€true€extent€of€the€variation€among€individuals,€for€reasons€discussed€elsewhere€in€thisÏreport.€€€It€is€not€correct€to€conclude€that€99%€of€the€individuals€in€a€study€area€are€exposedÏbelow€the€level€in€the€table;€rather€that€for€a€particular€demographic€group,€assigned€to€aÏparticular€air€district€with€a€probability€based€on€the€relative€population€of€that€district,€there€is€aÏ99%€chance€that€the€exposure€for€that€group€would€be€below€the€stated€concentration.ÌÌòòÔ_ÔFractileÔ_Ô€TablesóóÐ ˜ ÐA€table€of€Ô_ÔfractilesÔ_Ô€of€the€city„wide€annual€exposure€distribution€for€each€demographic€group€isÏpresented€for€each€study€area.€€€These€differ€from€the€percentile€tables€in€that€the€Ô_ÔfractileÔ_Ô€tablesÏshow€the€percentage€of€the€demographic€group€exposed€at€or€below€fixed€points€in€exposure,Ïwhereas€the€percentile€tables€showed€the€exposure€levels€for€fixed€percentage€points€in€theÏdistribution.€€€The€Ô_ÔfractileÔ_Ô€tables€indicate€the€fractions€at€or€below€each€100€Ô_ÔððgÔ_Ô/Ô_Ômòò3Ô_Ôóó€€increment.€€Ð ‡‚" ÐAll€€the€groups€in€all€study€areas€were€exposed€at€or€below€2000€€Ô_ÔððgÔ_Ô/Ô_Ômòò3Ô_Ôóó.€€The€remarks€regardingÐ éä$ Ðthe€individual€variation€within€monitor€districts€made€in€the€above€paragraph€on€percentile€tablesÏalso€pertain€to€the€Ô_ÔfractileÔ_Ô€tables.€€ÌÌÌòòData€VisualizationóóÐ Ó&Î. ÐA€series€of€fourteen€maps€(one€per€study€area)€are€presented€in€Appendix€B.€€Each€map€indicatesÏthe€extent€of€the€study€area€(generally,€census€tracts€within€50€km€of€the€center€of€the€study€area),Ïthe€population€density€(in€shades€of€red),€the€monitor€locations€(numbers€in€blue€boxes),€theÏextent€of€the€monitor€districts€(outlined€in€blue),€the€county€boundaries,€major€roads€and€bodiesÐ [,V%6 Ðof€water,€and€the€annual€average€exposure€level€for€all€persons€by€county€(vertical€bars).€€TheÏexposure€levels€use€green€bars€for€estimates€that€pass€the€population€criteria€and€yellow€bars€forÏthose€that€do€not€pass€(these€are€usually€counties€further€from€the€city€center).€€All€of€the€mapsÏare€drawn€to€the€same€scale€and€use€the€same€shadings€for€population€density€and€the€sameÏheight€scale€for€the€exposure€bars,€to€allow€for€comparisons€between€maps.€€The€center€of€theÏstudy€area€is€marked€and€a€50€km€radius€circle€is€drawn€to€indicate€the€potential€extent€of€theÏstudy€area.€€Not€all€counties€within€50€km€of€the€city€center€were€included€in€each€designatedÏstudy€area,€usually€because€the€census€definition€of€the€Ô_ÔMSAÔ_Ô€or€Ô_ÔCMSAÔ_Ô€did€not€include€them.€€InÏa€few€cases€(e.g.€Union€county€in€NJ€and€Alexandria€VA),€areas€which€should€have€beenÏincluded€were€not€because€the€tract€level€population€data€were€not€available€at€the€time€of€theÏmodel€runs.€€€€€ÌÌòòAdditional€Results€on€the€CD„ROMóóÐ ˜˜ ÐIn€addition€to€the€tables€in€this€report,€the€CD„ROM€contains€tables€of€hourly€exposures,€ÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€exposures,€concentrations,€and€durations,€and€percentile€tables€and€Ô_ÔfractileÔ_ÔÏtables€for€each€demographic€group€in€each€study€area.€€All€of€the€tables€are€provided€in€ASCIIÏfiles,€without€headers€and€page€breaks,€ready€to€read€into€a€program€or€spreadsheet.€€In€addition,Ïall€of€the€tables€printed€in€Appendices€A1„A14€of€this€report€are€available€in€electronic€form€onÏthe€CD„ROM€as€WordPerfect€files.€€Descriptions€of€the€directory€structure€and€file€formats€are€toÏbe€found€in€README€files€on€the€CD„ROM.ÌÌÌÌÑÃÈÑò òDiscussionó óÐ Î&Î. ÐÌResults€on€population€exposure€to€carbon€monoxide€from€ambient€air€were€generated€using€theÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€model€as€applied€to€23€demographic€groups€in€14€urban€areas.€€€The€changes€Ïmade€in€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€computational€method€have€allowed€for€a€more€efficient€use€of€computerÐ V,V%6 Ðresources,€with€the€result€that€a€very€extensive€set€of€output€tables€can€now€be€generated€withÏrelative€ease.€€The€difficulty€has€now€shifted€from€the€production€of€the€results€to€theÏinterpretation€of€the€results.€€It€is€not€possible€to€examine€all€the€tables€in€detail;€it€is€not€evenÏpractical€to€print€all€of€the€tables€that€were€generated.€€€However,€the€salient€points€relating€toÏeach€type€of€table€are€discussed€below.ÌÌòòCity„Wide€and€County„Wide€TablesóóÐ LL  ÐThe€city„wide€tables€provide€a€comparison€of€results€across€demographic€groups€and€quarters.€€AÏgeneral€result€is€that€the€outdoor€worker€group€usually€had€the€highest€exposure€in€all€study€areas.€ÏThis€is€reasonable,€since€these€model€runs€were€intended€to€represent€exposure€to€ambient€air,Ïand€this€exposure€is€naturally€higher€outdoors€than€indoors.€€Another€general€result€is€that€theÏfirst€and€fourth€quarters€have€higher€exposures€than€the€second€and€third€quarters.€€This€is€a€wellÏknown€property€of€carbon€monoxide€concentrations€(due€to€slower€dispersion€in€winter)€and€it€isÏexpected€that€exposure€patterns€would€be€similar.€€In€all€cases,€the€computed€variances€inÏexposure€are€found€to€be€smaller€than€those€from€previous€runs€of€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€model.€€This€isÏdue€to€the€choice€of€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€and€is€discussed€at€greater€length€in€theÏsensitivity€analysis€report.€€In€short,€the€absence€of€additive€factors€results€in€less€difference€inÏconcentration€between€two€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô,€and€hence€less€variation€in€exposure€due€toÏdifferences€in€activity€patterns.ÌÌAll€the€population€numbers€in€the€tables€except€for€three€specialized€demographic€groupsÏ(outdoor€children,€outdoor€workers,€and€heart€and€respiratory€problems)€are€derived€directly€fromÏthe€1990€census.€€The€numbers€pertain€to€those€tracts€included€in€the€study€area,€not€necessarilyÏthe€entire€Metropolitan€Statistical€Area€(Ô_ÔMSAÔ_Ô).€€€There€are€two€main€breakouts€which€shouldÏinclude€each€person€exactly€one:€the€five€income€categories,€and€the€eleven€categories€fromÏchildren€age€0„17€to€women€age€65+.€€€The€totals€in€these€categories€are€very€close€to€(but€notÏalways€exactly€equal)€the€population€of€all€persons.€€Possible€reasons€for€this€are€a)€the€manner€inÏwhich€missing€responses€are€handled,€b)€the€extrapolation€of€information€obtained€only€on€theÐ V,V%6 Ðlong€census€form€(given€to€1/6€of€the€households)€to€the€rest€of€the€population,€and€c)€roundingÏerrors€when€percentages€are€applied€to€the€population.€€€The€first€two€demographic€groups€areÏCaucasians€and€African„Americans.€€The€census€also€considers€other€races€such€as€Asian,ÏAmerican€Indian,€and€Other,€but€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€does€not€have€enough€time„activity€data€for€theseÏgroups€to€calculate€a€valid€exposure€estimate.€€The€third€group€in€the€tables€is€the€HispanicÏgroup.€€The€census€bureau€asks€respondents€if€they€consider€themselves€Hispanic€in€a€separateÏquestion€from€the€question€on€race.€€Therefore,€Hispanics€might€also€be€counted€in€one€of€theÏrace€categories€(e.g.€Caucasian,€or€African„American,€or€Other)€as€well.€€Due€to€the€missing€raceÏgroups,€and€the€possible€double€counting€of€Hispanics,€the€first€three€demographic€groups€mayÏnumerically€add€up€to€either€less€or€more€than€the€all€persons€group.€€The€three€groups€notÏsupplied€by€the€census€(outdoor€children,€outdoor€workers,€and€heart€and€respiratory€problems)Ïwere€defined€for€previous€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs€carried€out€by€IT€Corporation.€€The€fractions€of€outdoorÏchildren€and€of€people€with€heart€and€respiratory€problems€are€functions€of€age.€€These€areÏaggregated€over€the€known€age€distributions€for€each€study€area.€€The€fraction€of€OutdoorÏWorkers€as€a€function€of€occupation€was€also€determined€by€IT€Corporation,€using€data€for€LosÏAngeles€in€1994.€€These€fractions€were€applied€to€the€census€data€on€occupational€€category€forÏeach€study€area.€€ÌÌThe€county€level€tables€exhibit€the€same€patterns€in€exposure€as€the€city„wide€tables.€€TheÏprimary€difference€between€counties€is€the€overall€level€of€exposure.€€The€relative€ranking€ofÏdemographic€groups€and€of€quarters€is€generally€the€same€across€counties.€€This€is€due€to€the€useÏof€the€same€activity€patterns,€the€same€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors,€and€the€same€meteorologicalÏdata€in€all€counties€in€a€study€area.€€The€only€difference€is€in€the€ambient€air€quality,€which€actsÏas€an€overall€scale€factor€which€applies€to€all€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€and€demographic€groups.€ÏSome€differences€between€demographic€groups€arise€at€the€county€level€due€to€differentÏpopulations€per€air€district€(hence€different€county„wide€averages),€but€the€general€rankings€ofÏthe€demographic€group€exposures€are€similar€in€most€counties.ÌÐ V,V%6 ÐThe€demographic€group€with€the€highest€exposure€was€the€Outdoor€Worker€group,€while€theÏHeart€and€Respiratory€Problem€group€generally€had€the€lowest€exposure.€€These€results€are€due€toÏdifferences€in€the€activity€patterns.€€The€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€are€generally€higher€forÏoutdoor€locations€as€compared€to€indoor€ones.€€Comparisons€between€groups€based€on€race€orÏincome€differences€tend€to€be€small€in€counties€with€only€one€air€district,€indicating€that€exposureÏdifferences€due€to€activity€patterns€alone€are€not€very€great.€€For€counties€with€two€or€more€airÏdistricts,€larger€differences€are€seen,€reflecting€the€geographical€separation€of€the€groups.€€€BothÏthe€individual€counties€and€the€citywide€averages€show€that€males€have€consistently€higherÏexposures€than€females.€€This€is€almost€certainly€due€to€the€fact€that€men€spend€more€timeÏoutdoors€and€in€travel€than€women€do€on€average.€€Finally,€for€suburban€counties€such€as€AdamsÏand€Ô_ÔArapahoeÔ_Ô€in€the€Denver€study€area,€the€working€groups€had€higher€exposures€than€the€similarÏnon„working€groups.€€This€is€to€be€expected€since€many€of€the€workers€commute€to€the€relativelyÏhigher€€exposure€downtown€area.€€ÌÌAs€an€example€of€county€comparisons€within€a€study€area,€in€Denver€the€central€county€(DenverÏcounty)€has€the€highest€exposure€for€all€demographic€groups.€€The€lowest€exposures€are€found€inÏBoulder€county,€which€is€at€a€higher€elevation€and€is€less€urbanized€than€Denver.€€Adams,ÏÔ_ÔArapahoeÔ_Ô,€and€Jefferson€counties€all€extend€from€suburban€and€rural€areas€almost€to€the€heavilyÏurbanized€downtown€section€of€Denver.€€As€might€be€expected,€these€counties€had€similarÏexposures,€which€were€lower€than€those€for€central€Denver.€€The€sixth€county€in€the€study€areaÏwas€Weld€county.€€Only€a€small€portion€of€this€county€was€included€in€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€run,€all€inÏdistrict€#19,€so€the€estimate€is€close€to€the€citywide€average.€€This€is€due€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ôððs€internalÏassumptions.€€The€true€exposure€level€for€Weld€county€is€not€known.€€For€the€Denver€study€areaÏthere€was€only€one€county€predominantly€in€district€#19,€but€in€other€study€areas€there€were€oftenÏseveral€such€counties.€€A€flag€has€been€created€to€indicate€such€counties,€and€applied€to€the€tablesÏand€maps.€€In€total,€47€out€of€102€counties€pass€this€test€(indicated€using€green€bars€on€the€maps).€Ï€ÌÐ V,V%6 ÐòòAir€District€TablesóóÐ  ÐMost€of€the€comments€made€regarding€the€city„wide€and€county„wide€tables€also€apply€to€the€airÏdistrict€tables.€€€Within€air€districts€there€are€no€longer€any€differences€between€demographicÏgroups€based€on€location€(as€there€were€in€the€county€and€city€tables),€so€the€ranking€of€theÏdemographic€groups€is€even€more€similar€across€air€districts€than€the€ranking€across€counties.€ÏSome€differences€in€ranking€still€exist€because€the€groups€average€a€different€amount€of€time€inÏeach€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô,€and€each€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€has€a€different€dependence€on€the€ambientÏconcentration.€€€The€results€for€air€districts€show€(as€for€counties)€that€the€Outdoor€Workers€wereÏusually€the€group€with€the€highest€exposure€and€the€Heart€and€Respiratory€Problem€group€had€theÏlowest€exposure.€€ÌÌòòHourly€(Diurnal)€TablesóóÐ 66 ÐThe€sequence€of€24€hourly€exposures€characterizes€the€diurnal€exposure€pattern.€€While€the€CD„¼ROM€contains€one€table€for€each€demographic€group,€for€brevity€only€the€table€for€all€persons€isÏprinted€in€this€report.€€The€diurnal€patterns€generally€follow€a€standard€pattern,€with€a€sharp€peakÏaround€8„9€a.m.€and€a€somewhat€lower€but€broader€peak€from€7„11€p.m.€€These€patterns€resembleÏstandard€diurnal€CO€ambient€concentration€profiles€primarily€due€to€traffic€patterns.€€The€twoÏtraffic€driven€peaks€are€stronger€in€the€winter€(first€and€fourth€quarters)€than€in€the€summer.€€InÏthe€second€quarter€the€evening€peak€almost€vanishes.€€This€is€due€to€the€relatively€late€sunsets€inÏMay€and€June,€which€allow€time€for€the€evening€rush€hour€emissions€to€disperse€before€theÏstrong€solar„driven€convective€mixing€ceases.€€ÌÌòòÔ_ÔMicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€TablesÐ l%l, ÐóóAs€with€the€hourly€tables,€the€full€set€of€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€tables€is€available€on€the€CD„ROM.Ð Î&Î. ÐThe€tables€for€the€group€of€all€persons€are€printed€in€this€report.€€There€are€two€tables€for€eachÏstudy€area:€a€table€of€contributions€to€total€(accumulated)€exposure€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô,€and€aÏtable€of€average€concentrations€and€durations€in€each€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ôò ò.€€ó óIt€should€be€noted€thatÐ ô*ô#4 Ðthe€tables€reflect€a€population€weighted€average€for€all€the€people€in€the€demographic€group,€notÐ \,\%6 Ðfor€any€one€individual.€€ÌÌAs€expected,€the€highest€proportion€of€total€exposure€comes€from€the€in„homeÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô,€due€to€the€great€amount€of€time€spent€there.€€Next€in€importance€are€travelÏ(mostly€by€car)€and€exposure€in€an€office€or€school.€€The€relative€contributions€of€the€variousÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€indicate€the€ones€that€dominate€the€determination€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€results.€ÏTherefore,€any€attempt€to€reduce€the€uncertainty€in€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€model€by€improving€theÏcharacterization€of€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€will€have€a€larger€impact€if€it€focuses€on€theseÏdominant€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô.€€€The€differences€in€relative€contributions€(i.e.€percent€of€total)€byÏquarter€are€not€very€large.€€ÌÌThe€second€table€illustrates€the€relative€contribution€of€concentration€and€duration€to€theÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€exposure.€€Generally,€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€with€high€exposure€also€haveÏlong€durations,€meaning€that€people€spend€a€lot€of€time€there.€€The€variations€in€concentrationÏacross€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€are€relatively€small,€and€are€mostly€due€to€the€differences€in€theirÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors.€€The€most€dominant€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€in€accumulated€exposure€isÏthe€home,€despite€having€a€moderate€average€concentration.€The€high€concentrationÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€generally€had€relatively€short€durations€and€they€did€not€dominate€theÏexposure€results.€€A€caution€should€be€made€here€against€relying€on€the€accuracy€of€either€theÏconcentration€or€the€duration€for€those€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€with€small€accumulated€exposures:Ïthe€time„activity€database€poorly€samples€those€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€and€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_ÔÏfactors€are€generally€based€on€fewer€data€points€than€for€the€more€common€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô.€ÏThe€numbers€which€are€most€reliable€are€those€which€contribute€more€heavily€to€the€overall€total.ÌNote€also€that€these€concentrations€reflect€only€the€portion€of€CO€in€that€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_ÔÏattributable€to€the€ambient€air€and€does€not€include€local€sources.€ÌÌòòVisualization€of€OutputóóÐ ô*ô#4 ÐÐ V,V%6 ÐFor€each€of€the€study€areas€a€map€is€presented€in€Appendix€B€displaying€the€population€density€atÏthe€tract€level,€the€outlines€of€the€counties€and€the€air€districts,€with€a€vertical€bar€in€each€countyÏrepresenting€the€annual€exposure€estimate€for€all€persons.€€€The€maps€generally€show€that€theÏpopulation€density€has€declined€to€low€levels€by€the€50€km€boundary€except€for€the€very€largestÏcities€(Los€Angeles€and€New€York).€€€In€a€few€cases€(particularly€for€Union€County€NJ,ÏAlexandria€VA,€and€the€counties€in€Illinois€near€St.€Louis),€population€data€were€not€availableÏfor€areas€that€would€otherwise€have€been€included€in€the€studies.€€These€areas€have€no€impact€onÏthe€exposure€estimates€for€other€counties€in€the€same€study€areas,€apart€from€a€slight€effect€on€theÏfive€commuting€demographic€groups.€€ÌÌA€general€feature€of€the€fourteen€areas€is€the€concentration€of€monitor€locations€near€the€cityÏcenter.€€This€is€pronounced€in€all€cities€except€New€York,€Los€Angeles,€and€Philadelphia.€€InÏBaltimore€and€Washington,€for€example,€all€the€monitors€are€close€to€the€central€cities€and€thereÏare€no€monitors€at€all€between€the€two€cities.€€The€effect€of€this€is€that€the€exposure€estimates€forÏthe€central€counties€tend€to€be€based€primarily€on€monitor€data€(green€exposure€bars),€whereasÏthe€estimates€for€the€outer€counties€are€often€based€on€only€a€portion€of€the€tracts€in€the€county,Ïand€often€these€tracts€are€not€particularly€close€to€an€ambient€monitor€(hence€they€are€put€inÏdistrict€19).€€€The€result€is€that€most€of€the€outer€counties€in€each€study€area€have€estimates€whichÏprobably€do€not€well€represent€the€counties.€€These€have€been€flagged€and€colored€with€yellowÏexposure€bars€on€the€maps.€€Due€to€the€predominance€of€district€19€in€these€counties,€theÏestimates€are€often€at€or€very€close€to€the€overall€city„wide€mean€exposure.€€In€order€to€makeÏexposure€estimates€for€the€population€in€these€(sometimes€extensive)€regions€far€from€ambientÏmonitors,€a€method€either€of€interpolation€between€monitors€(or€of€modeling€the€distribution€ofÏCO€in€each€study€area)€would€be€required.€€That€task€is€beyond€the€scope€of€this€report.ÌÌÐ  ’)’"2 Ðò òSummaryó óÐ +  ÐÌThe€enhancements€to€the€running€of€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€model€now€allow€€the€analyst€to€generate€a€veryÏlarge€amount€of€data€in€a€relatively€short€time.€€This€is€reflected€in€the€number€of€output€tablesÏfrom€the€model€runs.€€€From€this€point€on,€the€interpretation€of€the€results€may€consume€moreÏtime€than€the€production€of€the€actual€runs€themselves.€€This€would€be€the€case€not€only€for€theÏpresent€set€of€fourteen€study€areas,€but€also€for€any€new€study€areas,€despite€the€need€of€the€latterÏfor€data€pre„processing€prior€to€running€the€model.€€Running€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€for€other€years€besidesÏ1990€would€not€be€difficult,€as€long€as€the€same€(1990)€census€data€could€be€used.€€The€mainÏlimitation€to€applying€the€model€to€other€study€areas€is€that€most€new€areas€would€have€fewer€COÏmonitors€than€the€fourteen€areas€already€examined.€€There€are€over€3100€counties€in€the€countryÏbut€only€around€500€ambient€CO€monitors,€so€most€of€the€counties€are€not€monitored€at€all.€€€ÌÌThe€results€generally€show€consistent€patterns€across€most€study€areas.€€The€first€and€fourthÏquarters€(winter)€have€higher€exposures€than€the€other€two€quarters.€€The€Outdoor€WorkersÏgenerally€are€the€group€with€the€highest€exposure€in€each€study€area.€€The€central€cities€usuallyÏhave€higher€exposures€than€the€suburbs€and€are€also€more€heavily€monitored.€€The€hourlyÏexposure€profiles€generally€indicate€traffic€patterns,€with€peaks€at€and€following€the€morning€andÏevening€rush€hours.€€The€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€tables€indicate€the€home,€office,€school€and€travelÏare€the€major€sources€of€CO€exposure€for€the€demographic€groups€considered€in€this€report.€€ÌÑeÑÔ‡Xøû XXX3ÔÐ  Ó$¨( ÐÑÑÑTRP$Ø'3 Letter LandscapeXà3Ø' LetterØ'3 Letter Landscapeÿ3Ø'TÑԇ XXøûÔÖ€ØÖà  àà ` àà ¸ àà  àà h àà À àÔ#†Xøû X”R#Ôò òTABLE€1ó óÐ  ÐÌÔ‡ô:{õ XXøûÔList€of€ambient€CO€monitors€(from€AIRS)€operating€in€1990€within€50€km€of€the€designated€city€center.Ð ¾¦ ÐMonitors€with€less€than€75%€data€capture€(6570€hourly€values)€were€not€used€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs.ÌFor€co„located€monitors,€the€one€with€greater€data€capture€was€used.ÌThe€average€concentration€of€the€filled„in€time€series€used€by€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€is€given€in€under€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô.€€ÌMonitors€not€used€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs€have€Ô_ÔSITENUMÔ_Ô=x€and€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô=Ô_ÔxxxxÔ_Ô.€ÌAll€concentrations€reported€in€parts€per€million€(Ô_ÔppmÔ_Ô).Ô#†Xøû Xõô:{VS#Ôԇ XXøûÔÐ O7 ÐÌÌSTUDY€AREA€€€€Ô_ÔNUMÔ_Ô€€€SITE€€€€Ô_ÔSITENUMÔ_Ô€Ô_ÔUTMZÔ_Ô€€€Ô_ÔUTMNORTHÔ_Ô€€€Ô_ÔUTMEASTÔ_Ô€€€€€DIST€€€€€€N€€€€€€MIN€€€€MEAN€€€€€€€MAX€€€€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_ÔÌÓ€ÓÌBALTIMORE€€€€€€1€€€CENTER€€€€€€0€€€€€18à0 À à€€€4350.1€€€€€360.7€€€€€€€0.0€€€€€€€€€0€€€€0€€€€€€0€€€€€€€€€€€0€€€€€€€€Ðû Àà.Àà. 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