ÿWPC n}¡;Ò­YYßc.áGRštºªg¶Ã›'lù­8œ€Ó x[UéîÒçnŒS(¼-B;ºÕäZqUçEÒÇ£¡tÀ‡B°o…r?³6ƒ~q~äÑ?Ž€Úæh÷{Ó5õ6ùÿ‘d¤=ñÀ£zµVô+È򯯬-í”-qh×4qCý„Fuü¦ÐœúˆÐß@ÍX$õŠnÅ»P±" "å½Ýèð‰äìØó\G“ÎÖ®÷Þã1D¾“›k15C5&^GÀ “Èp±«šJÛb÷‰¦'/Ò ~æEËÓ€1²òý¿"(ÐÇ&› Ée©æÍ“[2^úózÜú^–ëæ_R,˜7× ÑAW“Q42‰¨Çjª!û®–vžß_Y«}¿}ê&‡wðâú7¥ "턊Ûãjhÿ -`ʵÏÊyK‹ße›‰õlx†÷Úwå:ŒÛ ih¶Æ¨#,+ˆÖ]kÌÈî ɹ4PÓ˜©ÀvƒZmÙêé6Æ€ûñó‹›7#A”8ÎŒ¹¥¶\[] ÂKËo¬ÜT#¤oMð–ó4¬íœr[ÎáDśޯTñSDý.“ RI~úi(µÌXL–uzæ`£Mb1ÖÕڮĈøfñ£-NÕÿ3#!ÊU@Në %9 0(?UJgw±4µÉØ mÚ 0CñÆ4 0eú„_EãU9FåUF+ q "y › 0L£ UFï Q5 N† ^ ˆ ˆ ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” AOœ Æë 0D± 0Dõ 0D9 Æ} D/C Br B 0L¬ AMø 0KE D3 D3à Cö˜HP LaserJet 4/4M Plus PS FileÈÚØÚÚØÈÚ0xÈhH  Z‹6Times New Roman RegularX($¡¡{,hä  Z2CG Times (W1) Regular“x¥&åï3|xKÿU‹ÿÀÀÀ(2C$§§Ý ƒ!ÝÝ  Ý1, 2, 3,Level 1Level 2Level 3Level 4Level 54#(þ2Quick 1)Úƒ ÚÚ  Ú)à0 àÛ€ Û zÝ ƒ C'ÝÝ  ÝÔ_ÔÓ  ÓÔ‡ôL‚õXXÔFINALÐ ° ÐMarch€1998´à09Z+.Courier New Regularšj aZ'.LinePrinter Regular  Ñ 8 ÑÑ  Ñ >c$"Small Circleð"ðà0 à<à09Z .Courier New Regular GÝ ƒ C'ÝÝ  ÝÔ_ÔÓ  ÓFINALÌMarch€1998úZ<'ä %'(*Cþÿ<< CÿÿƒLevel 1Level 2Level 3Level 4Level 5(3¯$¢¢Ý ƒ!ÝÝ  Ý(3¯$££Ý ƒ!ÝÝ  Ý($$””ò òÚ  Ú1Ú  Úó óLevel 1Level 2Level 3Level 4Level 5,,'÷ÿ dxd düÿP Pd>ßb$Large Circleððà0 à)'/0A<< Cÿÿ( ±þ$’’ò òFigure€Ú  Ú1Ú  Úó ó++++'ÿÿdxd,,,,'ûÿdxd ÿÿÿdÝ ƒ!ÝÝ  ÝÔ_ÔÓ€ÓÓ  ÓÌÌ€Ô‡X3XXXÔ€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€Ð tÄ Ðò òÔ‡„eè„XX3ÔFinal€Technical€Report€Ð Ö& Ѐ€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ÌAnalysis€of€Carbon€Monoxide€Exposure€Ìfor€Fourteen€Cities€using€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô-MS3Ô#†X3X„„eè¢#Ôó óÐ V  ÐÔ#†X3XXX3L#ÔÓ€Ó€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€Ð f  Ѐ€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ÌÔ‡¼Z-»XX3ÔÔ_ÔAEARÔ_Ô€WA€II-48Ð î> ÐÌÌMichael€Ô_ÔZelenkaÔ_ÔÌWork€Assignment€ManagerÌÌNational€Exposure€Research€LaboratoryÌU.S.€Environmental€Protection€AgencyÌ€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€Ì€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ÌPrepared€by:Ì€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ÌGraham€Glen,€Project€ScientistÌDoug€Ô_ÔShadwickÔ_Ô,€Project€ScientistÌ€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ÌÔ_ÔManTechÔ_Ô€Environmental€Technology,€Inc.ÌResearch€Triangle€Park,€NC€27709Ì€€€€€€€€€€€€Ì€€€€€€€€€€€ÌEPA€Contract€No.€#68-D5-0049ÌWork€Assignment€048Ô#†X3X»¼Z-C#ÔÐ  V(¦#$ ÐÖ€ÿÿÖò òÔ‡¼Z-»XX3ÔForewordÐ  ÐÓ€ÓÔ#†X3X»¼Z-B#ÔÔ‡&?V%XX3Ôó óÌÓ  ÓÔ#†X3X%&?V³#ÔThis€report€presents€the€results€of€work€performed€by€Ô_ÔManTechÔ_Ô€Environmental€Technology,€Inc.,Ð \ X Ðunder€Work€Assignment€II„48€of€Contract€68„D5„0049€for€the€National€Exposure€ResearchÏLaboratory,€U.S.€Environmental€Protection€Agency,€Research€Triangle€Park,€NC.€€This€report€hasÏbeen€reviewed€by€Ô_ÔManTechÔ_Ô€Environmental€Technology,€Inc.,€and€approved€for€publication.€ÏMention€of€trade€names€or€commercial€products€does€not€constitute€endorsement€orÏrecommendation€for€use.Ô‡¼Z-»XX3Ôò òÐ  FB  ÐÓ  ÓÌTable€of€ContentsÔ#†X3X»¼Z-,#Ôó óÐ ¢ž ÐÓcÓÓ€ÓÌChapter€1:€Exposure€Estimates€using€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€Model.............................à0 x à€€1Ð, (x(#x(# Ðà  àIntroduction..................................................................................................à0 x à€€1Ð x(#x(# Ðà  àDescription€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô................................................................................à0 x à€€2Ð x(#x(# Ðà  àChanges€and€Enhancements€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô......................................................à0 x à€€7Ðð ìx(#x(# Ðà  àData€Handling€and€Data€Management..........................................................à0 x à13ÐÜØ x(#x(# Ðà  àResults..........................................................................................................à0 x à18ÐÈÄ x(#x(# Ðà  àDiscussion....................................................................................................à0 x à25д° x(#x(# Ðà  àSummary.......................................................................................................à0 x à32Рœ x(#x(# Ðà  àTables............................................................................................................à0 x à33ÐŒˆ x(#x(# ÐÌChapter€2:€Uncertainty€Analysis...............................................................................à0 x à45Ðd` x(#x(# Ðà  àIntroduction...................................................................................................à0 x à45ÐPLx(#x(# Ðà  àComparison€of€Models€to€Sample€Data........................................................à0 x à47Ð<8x(#x(# Ðà  àAir€Quality....................................................................................................à0 x à51Ð($x(#x(# Ðà  àPopulation.....................................................................................................à0 x à52Ðx(#x(# Ðà  àTemperature..................................................................................................à0 x à53Ðüx(#x(# Ðà  àActivity€Patterns............................................................................................à0 x à53Ðìèx(#x(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔMicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€Factors.........................................................................à0 x à56ÐØÔx(#x(# Ðà  àSummary.......................................................................................................à0 x à57ÐÄÀx(#x(# Ðà  àReferences.....................................................................................................à0 x à58а¬x(#x(# Ðà  àTables............................................................................................................à0 x à59М˜x(#x(# ÐÌChapter€3:€Quality€Assurance...................................................................................à0 x à63Ðtpx(#x(# Ðà  àIntroduction...................................................................................................à0 x à63Ð` \x(#x(# Ðà  àHandling€of€Program€Code...........................................................................à0 x à63ÐL!Hx(#x(# Ðà  àEnhancements€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3...................................................................à0 x à64Ð8"4x(#x(# Ðà  àData€Management€and€Verification..............................................................à0 x à68Ð$# x(#x(# Ðà  àTables............................................................................................................à0 x à71Ð$  x(#x(# ÐÌAppendicesÐ  è%ä" ÐÓ  Óò òÔ‡¼Z-»XX3ÔÌList€of€AppendicesÔ#†X3X»¼Z-#Ôó óÐ  ÐÓñÓÓ€ÓÌÌà  àAppendix€A1:€€€Baltimore€Study€Areaà0  à€€€€€€à0p(#(#àÐð ìp(#p(# Ðà  àAppendix€A2:à0 ¸ à€€Boston€Study€Area€€€€€€€€€€à0¸ (#¸ (#àÐR N(#(# Ðà  àAppendix€A3:à0 ¸ à€€Chicago€Study€Area€€€€€€€€€€€€à0¸ (#¸ (#àд° (#(# Ðà  àAppendix€A4:à0 ¸ à€€Denver€Study€Area€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€à0p¸ (#¸ (#àÐ p(#p(# Ðà  àAppendix€A5:à0 ¸ à€€Houston€Study€Area€€€€€€€€€€€€à0¸ (#¸ (#àÐxt (#(# Ðà  àAppendix€A6:à0 ¸ à€€Los€Angeles€Study€Area€€€€€€à0¸ (#¸ (#àÐÚÖ (#(# Ðà  àAppendix€A7:à0 ¸ à€€Minneapolis„Ô_ÔSt.PaulÔ_Ô€Study€Area€à0p¸ (#¸ (#àÐ<8 p(#p(# Ðà  àAppendix€A8:€€€€New€York€City€Study€AreaÌ€€€€€€€€€€€€Appendix€A9:€€€€Philadelphia€Study€AreaÌà  àAppendix€A10:€€Phoenix€Study€AreaÌà  àAppendix€A11:€€San€Francisco€Study€AreaÌà  àAppendix€A12:€€Spokane€Study€Area€€€€€€€€€€€Ìà  àAppendix€A13:€€St.€Louis€Study€AreaÌà  àAppendix€A14:€€Washington€DC€Study€AreaÌà  àÌà  àAppendix€B:€€€€€€Maps€of€the€Fourteen€Study€AreasÐ  ® ª$ ÐÓ  Óò òÔ‡¼Z-»XX3ÔList€of€TablesÔ#†X3X»¼Z-Ã#Ôó óÐ  ÐÌÓ  Óà  àTable€1:€€€List€of€Ambient€CO€Monitors....................................................à0 x à33Ð x(#x(# Ðà  àTable€2:€€€Ô_ÔMicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€Factors......................................................à0 x à39Ðf bx(#x(# Ðà  àTable€3:€€€Meteorological€Data...................................................................à0 x à40ÐÈ Äx(#x(# Ðà  àTable€4:€€€County€Populations€and€Exposures............................................à0 x à42Ð*& x(#x(# Ðà  àTable€5:€€€Counts€of€Activity€Patterns.........................................................à0 x à59ÐŒˆ x(#x(# Ðà  àTable€6:€€€Exposure€Estimates€for€Alternative€Activity€Sequences............à0 x à60Ðîê x(#x(# Ðà  àTable€7:€€€Percentiles€for€Alternative€Activity€Sequences..........................€€€€61Ìà  àTable€8:€€€Ô_ÔFractilesÔ_Ô€for€Alternative€Activity€Sequences..............................à0 x à62в® x(#x(# Ðà  àTable€9:€€€Test€of€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô€Program........................................................à0 x à71Ðx(#x(# Ðà  àTable€10:€Test€1€of€Ô_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_Ô€Program....................................................à0 x à72Ðvrx(#x(# Ðà  àTable€11:€Test€2€of€Ô_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_Ô€Program....................................................à0 x à73ÐØÔx(#x(# Ðà  àTable€12:€Test€3€of€Ô_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_Ô€Program....................................................€€€74Ìà  àTable€13:€Comparison€of€Ô_ÔOuptutÔ_Ô€to€Previous€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs.......................à0 x à75М˜x(#x(# ÐÐ  þú ÐÑe°ÑØØò òÑ8€3XXdìdÈ8ÑÖ€ŒÖÓ  ÓCHAPTER€€1Ð  ÐÌEXPOSURE€ESTIMATES€USING€THE€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€MODELÌÓ¿(ÓÌIntroductionó óÐ  ˆ ÐÌThe€purpose€of€this€report€is€to€present€the€findings€from€an€application€of€the€Hazardous€AirÏPollutant€Exposure€Model€for€Mobile€Sources,€Version€3€(hereafter€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3,€or€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô)Ïto€fourteen€urban€areas€for€the€calendar€year€1990.€€This€report€contains€a€description€of€theÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€model,€model€results€and€discussion,€an€uncertainty€analysis,€and€a€quality€assuranceÏsection.€€The€Appendices€contain€detailed€tables€of€model€results€for€each€of€fourteen€studyÏareas,€and€a€set€of€maps€(one€per€study€area).€€The€principal€results€are€tables€of€exposureÏestimates€to€ambient€carbon€monoxide€(CO)€by€demographic€group,€quarter€of€the€year,€andÏcounty.€€Other€tables€summarizing€exposure€by€hour,€air€district,€and€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€are€alsoÏpresented,€along€with€tables€of€percentiles€and€Ô_ÔfractilesÔ_Ô€of€the€exposure€distribution€within€eachÏstudy€area.€€A€companion€report€presents€a€sensitivity€analysis,€which€investigates€theÏdependence€of€the€exposure€estimates€on€the€set€of€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€used€for€theÏanalysis.€€Ì€ÌThe€CO€exposure€estimates€were€calculated€for€a€common€set€of€€23€demographic€groups€in€eachÏstudy€area,€using€a€common€set€of€model€parameters.€€This€allows€for€the€direct€comparison€ofÏdifferent€study€areas.€€The€entire€set€of€output€tables€is€very€extensive€and€has€been€placed€on€aÏCD„ROM.€€€The€additional€tables€on€the€CD„ROM€not€printed€in€this€report€include€hourly€andÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€breakouts€for€each€demographic€group€in€each€study€area.€€The€printedÏtables€in€this€report€only€contain€these€results€for€the€demographic€group€of€ððall€personsðð.€€TheÏcomplete€set€contains€an€additional€3€x€22€x€14€=€924€€pages€of€tables€beyond€those€printed€inÏthis€report.€€Ð ù*ô#4 Ðò òDescription€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ôó óÐ  ÐÌÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€calculates€exposures€to€carbon€monoxide€(CO),€or€other€mobile€source€pollutants,€overÏa€year,€for€all€the€people€in€a€given€metropolitan€area.€€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€does€not€estimate€the€exposure€ofÏindividuals,€but€of€an€entire€demographic€group€in€a€particular€air€district.€€In€the€model,€eachÏperson€in€the€group€is€effectively€interchangeable€with€any€other€person€in€the€group,€meaningÏthat€their€activities€are€all€selected€with€the€same€probabilities€from€the€same€database.€€ThisÏresults€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€providing€an€overall€population„weighted€average€exposure€for€theÏdemographic€group.€€Due€to€the€method€of€analyzing€air€quality€data,€the€model€does€not€provideÏestimates€for€time€periods€shorter€than€a€calendar€quarter.€€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€is€therefore€a€long„term,Ïpopulation€level€exposure€model€and€should€not€be€applied€either€to€individuals€or€to€shortÏduration€events.€€Due€to€the€large€data€files€and€long€execution€time,€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€is€run€on€theÏEPAððs€IBM€mainframe€computer.ÌÌThere€are€four€main€types€of€data€used€as€inputs€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô:Ìà  àCO€Monitoring€DataÌà  àTime„Activity€DataÌà  àÔ_ÔMicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€DataÌà  àPopulation€DataÌThe€output€from€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€provides€electronic€files€and€tables€summarizing€the€quarterly€andÏannual€exposure€for€each€demographic€group.€€These€tables€and€files€have€been€extended€toÏinclude€new€types€of€output€such€as€summaries€at€the€county€level€as€well€as€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_ÔÏexposures.€€The€details€of€these€enhancements€are€provided€later€in€this€report.ÌÌòòCO€Monitoring€Data:óóÐ 5(0!0 ÐÌThe€study€area€is€divided€into€districts,€which€are€roughly€circular€areas€of€diameter€20€kmÐ ù*ô#4 Ðaround€each€ambient€CO€monitor.€€Districts€are€actually€composed€of€a€whole€number€of€censusÏtracts.€€The€data€from€the€monitors€is€extracted€from€the€AIRS€database€prior€to€runningÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€€With€N€monitors,€there€are€N+1€districts.€€For€the€23€demographic€groups€there€are€€(5ÏNòò2óó€+€33€N€+€28€)€cohorts€(defined€by€their€demographic€groups,€home€locations,€and€workÐ + & Ðlocations)€.€€From€1€to€18€monitors€per€study€area€can€be€accommodated€in€the€current€version€ofÏthe€model.€€An€extra€district€(number€19€in€the€tables)€is€created€in€each€study€area€and€it€consistsÏof€those€areas€not€close€to€(i.e.€within€10€km€of€)€any€ambient€monitor.€€The€concentration€inÏdistrict€19€is€just€set€to€the€average€concentration€of€all€the€monitors€in€the€study€area.€€€BecauseÏthis€concentration€is€assumed€rather€than€measured,€exposure€estimates€for€district€19€are€not€asÏreliable€as€those€for€other€districts.€€In€the€results,€a€flag€has€been€created€to€indicate€countiesÏwith€estimates€that€are€based€largely€on€district€19€values.ÌÌIn€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô,€the€CO€monitoring€data€is€processed€by€the€two€programs€Ô_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ô€and€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô.€ÏThe€Ô_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ô€program€smooths€the€data€and€fills€in€missing€values€by€first€performing€a€FourierÏanalysis€on€the€year„long€time€series€of€hourly€values€at€each€monitor.€€The€most€significantÏterms€are€retained.€€Ô_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ô€uses€a€second„order€Ô_ÔautoregressiveÔ_Ô€technique€incorporating€aÏrandom€factor€to€estimate€the€missing€data.€€This€means€that€the€results€from€Ô_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ô€willÏdiffer€slightly€from€run€to€run€if€there€are€any€missing€data€in€the€original€time€series.€€TheÏÔ_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô€program€then€averages€the€smoothed€time€series€into€24€hourly€averages€for€eachÏquarter€of€the€year,€at€each€monitor.€€The€analysis€by€both€programs€is€done€independently€forÏeach€monitor,€so€the€inclusion€or€exclusion€of€other€monitors€in€the€study€area€does€not€affect€theÏresults.€€These€programs€have€not€been€functionally€changed€for€the€current€set€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs.€ÏThe€average€annual€concentration€at€each€monitor€as€calculated€by€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô€is€given€in€the€lastÏcolumn€of€Table€1,€for€comparison€to€the€mean€of€the€observed€(non„missing)€data.€€SmallÏdifferences€in€the€means€are€expected€since€the€filled€values€do€not€necessarily€have€the€sameÏaverage€as€the€rest€of€the€data.ÌÐ ù*ô#4 ЇòòTime€Activity€Data:óóÐ  ÐÌThe€time„activity€data€originally€comes€from€the€three„city€database€(data€from€Denver,ÏWashington€DC,€and€Cincinnati,€collected€in€1982„1985).€€The€records€are€specially€processedÏfor€use€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€The€file€currently€contains€€3568€person„days€of€data,€divided€into€8€statesÏ(combinations€of€three€binary€divisions:€winter/summer,€weekend/weekday,€and€warm/coolÏweather),€with€information€on€the€time€spent€during€each€clock€hour€in€each€of€37ÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô.€€The€warm/cool€division€for€the€states€is€set€at€84òòð-ðóóF€in€June,€July€andÐ ³®  ÐAugust,€and€at€55òòð-ðóóF€during€the€remaining€months.€€This€database€has€not€been€altered€from€theÐ   Ðone€used€in€previous€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€and€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€runs.€€ÌÌAlthough€the€time„activity€database€has€not€changed,€the€method€of€extracting€patterns€from€itÏhas€been€improved.€€Up€until€the€present€runs,€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€used€stochastic€sampling€to€extractÏrecords€from€this€activity€database,€selecting€a€random€time„activity€day€from€the€appropriateÏsubgroup€for€each€day€of€the€year.€€These€patterns€in€effect€are€realizations€of€annual€time„¼activity€patterns€created€by€repeated€independent€random€sampling€of€daily€patterns.€€TheÏexposure€estimates€therefore€apply€to€each€particular€realization,€rather€than€a€true€mean€over€allÏpossible€activity€patterns.€€€To€obtain€a€better€estimate€of€the€mean,€and€also€to€estimate€the€sizeÏof€this€stochastic€variation,€it€was€customary€to€repeat€the€entire€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs€typically€ten€timesÏeach.€With€the€changes€and€enhancements€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€(described€in€the€next€section),€this€featureÏwas€replaced€with€an€exact€calculation€of€the€mean€and€variance€associated€with€this€method€ofÏcreating€annual€activity€time„series.€€A€single€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€run€now€provides€all€the€information€(andÏmore)€than€the€ten€runs€did€previously.€€€€€€ÌÌThe€time„activity€database€(stored€on€the€EPAððs€IBM€mainframe€computer€under€the€file€nameÏÔ_ÔMEDUR.DATAÔ_Ô)€records€the€time€spent€in€each€of€the€37€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€duringÏeach€clock€hour€of€the€day.€€The€data€for€the€same€hours€on€all€the€days€in€each€calendar€quarterÐ ù*ô#4 Ðare€averaged€together€before€being€combined€with€concentration€data,€since€a€similar€averagingÏwas€already€carried€out€for€the€concentration€data€by€the€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô€program.€€ÌA€new€program€called€Ô_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ô€has€been€added€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€to€average€the€patterns€that€apply€toÏa€single€demographic€group.€€These€averages€are€used€for€the€hourly€and€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_ÔÏexposure€calculations.ÌÌòòÔ_ÔMicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€Data:óóÐ QL  ÐÌThe€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€are€entered€into€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€as€data,€and€can€be€varied€by€the€user.€ÏThe€values€used€in€the€current€runs€are€on€the€file€MEFILE5.€These€factors€are€derived€from€theÏfactors€used€in€previous€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs,€with€the€main€difference€that€the€additive€terms€are€all€setÏto€zero.€€This€choice€was€motivated€by€the€argument€that€the€multiplicative€factors€represent€theÏpenetration€of€ambient€CO€into€other€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô,€while€the€additive€terms€representÏsources€within€the€given€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô.€€The€goal€of€the€present€model€runs€was€to€estimateÏthe€exposure€to€ambient€CO€rather€than€total€CO.€€There€was€one€other€change€from€the€factorsÏused€in€previous€runs:€the€four€in„home€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€(#13„16)€were€combined€into€aÏsingle€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô,€since€these€four€differ€only€in€the€potential€for€local€(in„home)Ïemissions.€€A€€list€of€the€factors€used€for€the€current€analysis€is€given€in€Table€2.€€A€furtherÏdiscussion€of€the€choice€of€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€and€their€impact€on€the€exposureÏestimates€is€presented€in€the€sensitivity€analysis€report.ÌÌThe€Ô_ÔMECONCÔ_Ô€program€is€used€to€calculate€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€concentrations.€€It€must€beÏrun€after€the€two€air€quality€programs€(Ô_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ô€and€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô)€and€requires€a€file€ofÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors.€€The€file€of€factors€is€named€MEFILE5.€€The€results€from€Ô_ÔMECONCÔ_ÔÏare€stored€on€the€file€MECONC5.€€The€Ô_ÔMECONCÔ_Ô€program€must€be€run€before€the€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_ÔÏprogram.€€ÌÐ ù*ô#4 ÐòòPopulationóóÐ  ÐÌThe€1990€Census€provides€excellent€detail€on€home€location€and€on€demographic€groups,€andÏsomewhat€less€information€on€work€location.€€The€primary€census€unit€used€in€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_ÔÏmodel€is€the€census€tract,€which€typically€contains€about€5000€people.€€€The€study€areas€used€forÏthe€present€runs€contain€anywhere€from€100€to€4000€tracts.€€The€census€provides€the€number€ofÏpeople€in€each€demographic€group€living€in€each€tract,€and€also€the€distribution€of€commutingÏtimes€for€each€tract.€€For€previous€model€runs,€the€POP90€program€aggregated€the€populationÌdata€directly€to€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€district€(air€monitor)€level.€€Since€the€current€set€of€runs€require€theÏnew€feature€of€summarizing€exposure€by€county,€the€POP90€program€has€been€modified€toÏprovide€summaries€of€populations€for€each€€(county€x€district)€combination.€€ÌÌTwo€programs€are€used€in€the€commuting€calculations:€Ô_ÔTVLTIMEÔ_Ô€and€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô.€€The€Ô_ÔTVLTIMEÔ_ÔÏprogram€reads€the€census€commuting€times€and€creates€an€array€of€them€for€later€use€by€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô.€ÏThe€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô€program€has€been€rewritten€slightly€and€now€combines€the€functions€of€three€earlierÏprograms€(DIST,€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô,€and€Ô_ÔTTFRAÔ_Ô).€€€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô€calculates€the€number€of€people€whoÏcommute€from€any€one€census€tract€to€any€other.€€This€is€an€iterative€calculation€that€looks€for€aÏsolution€consistent€with€the€commuting€time€totals€from€the€census.€€Once€found,€the€results€areÏaggregated€up€to€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€air€district€level€and€stored€in€the€HOMEWORK€file.€ÌÌAll€of€the€above€pieces€can€be€considered€as€data€pre„processing.€€These€are€necessary€steps€priorÏto€the€actual€exposure€calculations.€€Previously,€the€exposure€calculations€were€carried€out€by€theÏMERGE€and€GRAPH€programs.€€For€the€current€runs,€these€have€been€replaced€by€the€newÏprograms€€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô€and€Ô_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_Ô.€€The€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô€program€calculates€exposure€by€countyÏand€also€by€air€district,€for€each€demographic€group€and€quarter€of€the€year.€The€Ô_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_ÔÏprogram€calculates€average€exposures€by€hour€of€the€day€and€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€for€eachÏdemographic€group,€on€a€city„wide€basis.€€€€€€€Ð ù*ô#4 Ðò òChanges€and€enhancements€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ôó óÐ  ÐÌÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€currently€is€comprised€of€ten€Fortran€programs€as€outlined€in€the€previous€section.€€€€€ÏThe€changes€made€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€for€the€current€runs€do€not€affect€the€nature€of€the€model€or€any€ofÏthe€model€assumptions,€but€serve€the€following€main€purposes:€Ìà  àÌà0  àà0` (#(#àà  à1)€to€add€new€features€to€the€output€tables€(including€county€and€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_ÔÐ ` (#` (# Ѐ€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€information,€as€well€as€more€detailed€percentile€and€Ô_ÔfractileÔ_Ô€tables),Ìà  à2)€to€give€exact€mean€and€variance€calculations€instead€of€stochastic€estimates,Ìà  à3)€to€obtain€results€for€all€demographic€groups€in€a€single€run,€andÌà  à4)€to€speed€up€program€execution.ÌÌThe€results€from€the€modified€programs€were€compared€to€previous€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs.€€This€wasÏdone€for€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€runs€for€San€Francisco€carried€out€in€1996.€€All€demographic€groupsÏwere€run€for€the€study€year€1990,€using€the€same€monitors€and€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€as€inÏthe€previous€runs€(presented€in€a€report€to€EPA€prepared€by€IT€Corporation€entitledÏððDevelopment€and€Evaluation€of€Enhancements€to€the€Hazardous€Air€Pollutant€Exposure€ModelÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3').€€The€results€from€the€two€sets€of€runs€agreed€within€the€stated€uncertainties.€€ÏThe€results€of€this€comparison€are€presented€in€greater€detail€in€the€quality€assurance€section.€€€InÏaddition,€a€separate€calculation€was€carried€out€in€SAS€to€test€the€algorithms€for€the€mean€andÏvariance€calculations€carried€out€in€the€new€Fortran€routines€added€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.Ì.€ÌThe€ten€programs€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€can€be€divided€into€three€groups:€those€that€did€not€change;€thoseÏwith€minor€changes;€and€new€programs.ÌÓ€ÓÐ  5(0!0 ÐÌÌà  àPROGRAMà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àCHANGESà0À(#(#àSUMMARY€DESCRIPTION€OF€CHANGESÐÝØÀ(#À(# ÐßA€+) °°xdE°È xAßà  àÐ É Ä Ðà  àÔ_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànoneà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àÐØ ÓÀ(#À(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànone€à0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àÐÄ ¿À(#À(# Ðà  àDIST90à0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànoneà0h(#(#àа «h(#h(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔTVLTIMEÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànoneМ —(#(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔODESTÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àminorà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àDIST,€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô,€Ô_ÔTTFRAÔ_Ô€combined€(to€run€faster)Ј ƒÀ(#À(# Ðà  àPOP90à0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àminorà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àCounty€level€information€retainedÐto À(#À(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔMECONCÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànewà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àUsed€to€be€part€of€MERGE,€now€separateÐ`[ À(#À(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànewà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àPart€of€mean€and€variance€calculationsÐLG À(#À(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànewà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àCreates€tables€by€county€and€air€districtÐ83 À(#À(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànewà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àCreates€tables€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€and€hour€€Ð$ À(#À(# ÐÌÌà  àÌÓ€ÓòòDetailed€Description€of€Program€ChangesóóÐ ÔÏ ÐÌÔ_ÔODESTÔ_ÔÌPreviously,€a€sequence€of€four€programs€(Ô_ÔTVLTIMEÔ_Ô,€DIST,€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô,€and€Ô_ÔTTFRAÔ_Ô)€had€to€be€runÏto€carry€out€the€commuting€algorithms€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€While€no€changes€in€functionality€have€beenÏmade€to€this€section€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô,€it€was€found€that€for€large€cities€these€programs€were€very€slowÏin€execution.€€Investigation€showed€that€both€DIST€and€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô€wrote€very€large€files€that€wereÏsubsequently€read€back€in€to€the€next€program€and€were€not€needed€by€any€other€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_ÔÏprograms.€€These€files€each€had€a€number€of€€records€equal€to€the€square€of€the€number€of€censusÏtracts€in€the€study€region.€€By€combining€the€code€of€the€last€three€commuting€programs,€aÏsubstantial€reduction€in€computing€time€was€achieved€(for€New€York€the€reduction€is€from€nearlyÏone€hour€on€the€IBM€mainframe€to€just€four€minutes).€€The€program€now€called€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô€uses€theÏsame€input€files€(Ô_ÔTVLTIMEÔ_Ô€and€DISTRICT)€and€output€file€(HOMEWORK€),€with€the€sameÏformat,€as€the€old€set€of€three€programs€used,€but€without€creating€any€intermediate€files.€€ÌÌÌPOP90Ð ô+ï$1 ÐTwo€features€have€been€added€to€the€POP90€program:€the€retention€of€county€information€andÏthe€ability€to€process€data€for€all€demographic€groups€in€one€run.€€The€program€reads€in€censusÏtract€information€which€includes€the€state€and€county€Ô_ÔFIPSÔ_Ô€(Federal€Information€ProcessingÏStandard)€codes€as€part€of€the€tract€ID.€€A€list€of€distinct€counties€is€created€and€sorted€in€Ô_ÔFIPSÔ_ÔÏorder.€€In€order€to€process€all€the€demographic€groups,€the€majority€of€the€POP90€program€wasÏput€into€a€long€loop€which€is€run€once€for€each€group.€€The€final€step€in€this€loop€is€to€rewind€allÏthe€input€files€for€re„use€for€the€next€demographic€group.€€This€was€the€easiest€way€(i.e.€leastÏlikely€to€introduce€new€programming€errors)€to€modify€the€program,€although€it€would€be€moreÏefficient€to€read€the€files€just€once€and€simultaneously€apply€the€information€to€all€theÏdemographic€groups.€€ÌÌÔ_ÔMECONCÔ_ÔÌThis€is€a€short€program€that€combines€the€ambient€air€data€from€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô€with€theÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€to€calculate€CO€concentrations€in€each€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô.€€This€taskÏwas€previously€carried€out€in€the€MERGE€program,€which€is€no€longer€used.€€It€would€also€beÏpossible€in€future€to€combine€this€task€with€the€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô€program,€thereby€reducing€the€numberÏof€programs€by€one.€€This€was€not€done€at€present€because€of€the€need€to€test€the€new€programsÏusing€a€special€Ô_ÔMECONCÔ_Ô€file.€€€This€file€(called€DUMMY)€had€all€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_ÔÏconcentrations€set€to€a€single€value€(1.0€Ô_ÔppmÔ_Ô),€so€that€errors€in€the€exposure€calculation€could€beÏeasily€detected.€€The€results€from€this€testing€are€described€in€the€quality€assurance€chapter.€ÌÌÔ_ÔDURAVGÔ_ÔÌThis€program€averages€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€durations€of€all€individuals€in€a€demographicÏgroup.€€The€criteria€for€demographic€group€membership€are€defined€in€this€program€and€appliedÏto€the€records€in€the€time„activity€database.€€€The€results€are€used€by€the€Ô_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_Ô€program€toÏcalculate€exposures€at€the€hourly€and€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€level.€€€Note€that€Ô_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ô€is€the€onlyÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€program€that€needs€to€be€run€only€once,€as€it€applies€to€all€study€areas€as€long€as€the€setÐ ù*ô#4 Ðof€demographic€groups€does€not€change.€€In€fact,€the€output€file€(stored€as€Ô_ÔAVMEDUR.DATAÔ_Ô)Ïcan€simply€be€regarded€as€an€additional€part€of€the€activity€database.€€ÌÌÔ_ÔEXPCODIÔ_ÔÌThis€program€first€calculates€exposure„days€of€data€for€each€air€district€for€each€person„day€in€theÏtime„activity€database.€€Separate€home€and€work€exposures€are€calculated€for€each€air€district,Ïwhich€are€later€combined€with€the€commuting€data€to€produce€cohort€exposures.€€€This€procedureÏreduces€the€number€of€exposures€calculated€for€each€person€in€the€time„activity€database€from€theÏsquare€of€the€number€of€districts€to€just€twice€the€number€of€districts.€€In€previous€sets€of€runs,ÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€used€the€person„day€as€the€unit€for€assembling€a€year„long€time„activity€time€series€byÏstochastic€Ô_ÔresamplingÔ_Ô.€€The€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô€program€allows€the€results€of€this€process€to€be€evaluatedÏby€direct€calculation,€since€the€mean€and€variance€of€a€random€sample€can€be€calculated€directlyÏfrom€the€characteristics€of€the€universe€that€the€sample€is€drawn€from.€€€These€steps€obviate€theÏneed€to€perform€repeated€runs€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô,€thus€saving€time,€computer€resources,€and€eliminatingÏthe€need€for€extensive€post„processing.€€ÌÌThe€daily€exposures€are€then€summed€by€demographic€group,€home€district,€work€district,€quarterÏof€the€year,€and€time„activity€state€(weekend/weekday,€etc.).€€The€data€are€combined€with€theÏoutput€from€the€POP90€program€(the€Ô_ÔPOPALLÔ_Ô€files)€and€the€results€of€the€commuting€algorithmÏ(the€HOMEWORK€files)€to€determine€the€number€of€people€in€each€category.€€This€allows€bothÏthe€creation€of€the€exposure€tables€(by€county€and€district)€and€the€calculation€of€population„¼weighted€averages.€€Each€table€reports€the€mean€and€standard€deviation€for€the€average€exposureÏrate€(in€micrograms€per€cubic€meter)€for€each€quarter€and€annually,€for€all€the€demographicÏgroups.€€There€is€one€such€table€for€each€county€and€one€for€each€air€district€in€the€study€area.€ÏThis€program€also€produces€a€similar€single€city„wide€average€table.€€The€tables€are€storedÏelectronically€and€can€easily€be€imported€into€a€word€processor€for€manipulation€and€printing.ÏThe€county€tables€are€stored€in€a€directory€named€Ô_ÔEXPCOÔ_Ô€and€the€district€tables€are€stored€inÐ ù*ô#4 ÐÔ_ÔEXPDIÔ_Ô.€ÌÌÌÔ_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_ÔÌThis€program€is€similar€to€the€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô€program,€except€that€instead€of€printing€tables€byÏgeographical€divisions,€it€creates€tables€of€exposure€for€all€demographic€groups€by€temporalÏ(hour€of€the€day)€and€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€divisions.€€For€the€hourly€tables,€the€mean€exposure€Ìand€the€percentage€of€daily€exposure€obtained€each€hour€are€reported.€€There€€are€two€types€ofÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€tables:€one€reporting€the€total€accumulated€exposure€(in€Ô_ÔððgÔ_Ô/Ô_Ômòò3Ô_Ôóó„year)€alongÐ   Ðwith€the€percentage€of€the€total€obtained€in€each€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô;€and€the€other€reporting€theÏaverage€concentration€and€duration€in€each€of€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô.€€Both€of€these€tablesÏpertain€to€all€persons€in€the€study€area.€€Note€that€due€to€the€way€in€which€year„long€time„activityÏsequences€are€assembled€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô,€the€calculation€of€a€variance€for€these€tables€would€beÏdifficult€since€there€is€significant€covariance€between€different€hours€or€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô.€ÏThat€problem€is€beyond€the€scope€of€the€current€project.€€The€hourly€tables€are€stored€in€aÏdirectory€€named€Ô_ÔEXPHRÔ_Ô€and€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€tables€are€stored€in€Ô_ÔEXPMEÔ_Ô.€ÌÌÌÌJob€Control€Language€(JCL)€FilesÌÌTo€perform€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs€for€the€fourteen€study€areas,€each€of€the€9€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€programs€(notÏcounting€Ô_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ô)€had€to€be€run€14€times€each,€a€total€of€126€small€jobs€on€the€IBM.€Ï(Ô_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ô€was€only€run€once).€€Also,€each€of€the€programs€needs€compilation€before€being€runÏthe€first€time.€€These€small€jobs€can€be€batched€together€in€one€of€two€ways:€either€a€singleÏprogram€is€compiled€and€run€14€times€(once€per€study€area)€in€a€single€job,€or€else€all€theÏprograms€could€be€applied€to€one€study€area€in€a€single€batch€job.€€The€former€method€isÐ ù*ô#4 Ðpreferable€if€the€programs€are€still€under€development€and€testing.€€The€latter€method€would€beÏpreferable€if€the€code€is€not€being€changed,€and€the€user€wished€to€apply€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€to€another€city.€ÏSince€several€of€the€programs€had€to€be€modified€and€checked€during€the€course€of€this€project,Ïthe€former€method€of€organization€is€used.€€All€of€the€programs€except€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô€and€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_ÔÏcan€process€all€14€study€areas€in€less€than€five€minutes€of€CPU,€which€is€a€system€cutoff€used€forÏthe€fast€processing€queue.€€€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô€can€be€run€for€all€13€cities€excluding€New€York€in€less€thanÏfive€minutes,€and€New€York€alone€takes€another€four€minutes.€€The€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô€program€takesÏabout€65€seconds€per€study€area€(independent€of€population),€so€four€study€areas€can€be€run€at€aÏtime€in€the€fast€queue.€€All€told,€the€14€study€areas€require€a€total€of€37€minutes€of€CPU€toÏcompile€and€run€the€complete€set€of€programs.€Ì€€Ð  ÙÔ  Ðò òData€Handling€and€Data€Management€ó óÐ  ÐÌThe€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€model€requires€several€types€of€data€as€inputs€to€the€exposure€calculations.€€€ÏHourly€ambient€CO€monitoring€data,€hourly€ambient€temperature€data,€U.S.€census€populationÏdata,€and€duration€of€activity€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€data€from€the€time„activity€database€areÏprocessed€by€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€programs€into€forms€that€are€used€in€the€exposure€calculations.€€TheÏsources,€€handling,€€and€management€of€this€raw€data€are€discussed€in€this€section.ÌÌòòFile€StructureóóÐ   ÐWith€fourteen€different€study€areas€and€the€potential€for€running€multiple€years€within€studyÏareas€(not€carried€out€under€the€present€task),€the€problem€of€organizing€data€is€crucial.€€ÌThe€data€that€vary€with€study€area€or€time€were€placed€in€partitioned€data€sets€on€the€IBMÏmainframe.€€Each€study€area€was€labeled€with€a€three€character€code€derived€from€its€name,€andÏfor€time€varying€data€the€year€was€added€as€a€suffix.€€For€example,€the€data€for€Denver€for€1990Ïare€found€in€members€named€(Den90).€€All€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€files€now€follow€this€convention.ÌÓ€ÓÌà  àSTUDY€AREA€à0  àà0h(#(#àSTATE(S)à0h(#h(#àà0p(#(#àABBREVIATIONЯªp(#p(# ÐÌà  àBaltimoreà0 ¸ à€€à0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àMDà0Àh(#h(#àà0À(#À(#àà0p(#(#àÔ_ÔBALÔ_ÔЇ‚!p(#p(# Ðà  àBostonà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔMA,NHÔ_Ôà0h(#h(#àà0p(#(#àBOSÐsn"p(#p(# Ðà  àChicagoà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔIL,INÔ_Ôà0Àh(#h(#àà0À(#À(#àà0p(#(#àCHIÐ_ Z#p(#p(# Ðà  àDenverà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àCOà0Àh(#h(#àà0À(#À(#àà0p(#(#àDENÐK!F$p(#p(# Ðà  àHoustonà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àTXà0Àh(#h(#àà0À(#À(#àà0p(#(#àÔ_ÔHOUÔ_ÔÐ7"2%p(#p(# Ðà  àLos€Angelesà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àCAà0Àh(#h(#àà0À(#À(#àà0p(#(#àLAXÐ##&p(#p(# Ðà  àMinneapolis€/€Ô_ÔSt.PaulÔ_Ôà0  àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔMN,WIÔ_Ôà0h(#h(#àà0p(#(#àÔ_ÔMSPÔ_ÔÐ$ 'p(#p(# Ðà  àNew€York€Cityà0  àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔNY,NJ,CTÔ_Ôà0h(#h(#àà0p(#(#àNYCÐû$ö(p(#p(# Ðà  àPhiladelphiaà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔPA,NJ,DEÔ_Ôà0h(#h(#àà0p(#(#àÔ_ÔPHLÔ_ÔÐç%â)p(#p(# Ðà  àPhoenixà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àAZà0Àh(#h(#àà0À(#À(#àà0p(#(#àÔ_ÔPHXÔ_ÔÐÓ&Î*p(#p(# Ðà  àSan€Franciscoà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àCAà0Àh(#h(#àà0À(#À(#àà0p(#(#àÔ_ÔSFBÔ_Ôп'º +p(#p(# Ðà  àSpokaneà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àWAà0Àh(#h(#àà0À(#À(#àà0p(#(#àÔ_ÔSPOÔ_ÔЫ(¦!,p(#p(# Ðà  àSt.€Louisà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔMO,ILÔ_Ôà0h(#h(#àà0p(#(#àÔ_ÔSTLÔ_ÔЗ)’"-p(#p(# Ðà  àWashington€D.C.à0  àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔDC,VA,MDÔ_Ôà0h(#h(#àà0p(#(#àÔ_ÔWDCÔ_ÔЃ*~#.p(#p(# ÐÓ€ÓÐ o+j$/ ЇòòAir€Quality€DataóóÐ  ÐHourly€average€CO€monitoring€data€were€obtained€from€the€U.S.€EPA€òòÔ_ÔAóóerometricÔ_Ô€òòIóónformationÐ gb Ðand€òòRóóetrieval€òòSóóystem€(AIRS)€by€means€of€interactive€menus€on€the€U.S.€EPA€mainframe€IBMÐ É Ä Ðcomputer.€€Initially,€all€of€the€hourly€average€CO€monitoring€data€for€the€entire€U.S.€for€theÏcalendar€year€1990€was€extracted€from€AIRS€in€Ô_ÔEBCDICÔ_Ô€files€maintained€on€the€mainframeÏcomputer.€€The€extracted€files€contain€coordinate€information€on€the€geographic€location€of€Ïmonitors€that€was€used€to€obtain€specific€monitoring€data€for€a€particular€urban€area.€€A€summaryÏof€the€hourly€average€CO€monitoring€data€for€calendar€year€1990€that€was€used€in€each€urbanÏarea€is€shown€in€Table€1.ÌÌTable€1€shows€the€urban€area,€€€AIRS€monitor€ID,€€the€Ô_ÔUTMÔ_Ô€zone€and€coordinates,€the€distanceÏform€the€city€center,€€the€number€of€valid€hourly€average€CO€values€for€calendar€year€1990,€theÏminimum,€mean,€and€maximum€hourly€average€concentrations€for€the€year,€and€the€averageÏconcentration€as€calculated€by€the€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô€program€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€€The€first€line€for€each€cityÏ(monitor€0)€is€not€a€monitor€but€is€the€location€of€the€designated€city€center.€€The€city€centerÏlocations€were€generally€the€same€ones€used€in€earlier€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs€(Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€runs€for€theÏyear€1988).€€The€San€Francisco€city€center€was€moved€slightly€to€allow€inclusion€of€the€monitorsÏin€Contra€Costa€county,€and€new€city€centers€were€designated€for€Baltimore€and€Chicago,€whichÏwere€not€run€previously.€€The€number€of€valid€observations€and€the€maximum€hourly€averageÏconcentration€were€compared€to€values€in€the€AIRS€data€base€using€an€online€browse€facility€inÏAIRS.€€These€matched€exactly€in€the€extracted€data€and€the€data€shown€in€the€AIRS€browseÏfacility.€€Only€those€monitors€with€at€least€75%€data€capture€were€used€in€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs.€ÏAlso,€in€the€case€of€co„located€monitors,€only€the€monitor€with€the€fewer€number€of€missingÏvalues€was€used.€€The€deleted€monitors€are€marked€with€Ô_ÔSITENUMÔ_Ô=ððxðð€and€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô=ððÔ_ÔxxxxÔ_Ôðð.€ÏThe€AIRS€formatted€Ô_ÔEBCDICÔ_Ô€files€of€hourly€average€CO€data€are€used€directly€in€the€programÏÔ_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ô€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€€The€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô€results€are€printed€here€in€part€as€a€check€that€the€dataÏreally€are€for€the€intended€monitor.€€The€monitor€numbers€and€locations€must€be€specified€in€theÐ ù*ô#4 ÐDIST90€program,€which€does€not€examine€the€AIRS€files€directly.€€€The€€Ô_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ô€programÏprocesses€all€data€on€the€AIRS€files€without€checking€the€monitor€numbers€or€locations.€€It€isÏtherefore€very€easy€to€create€incompatible€lists€in€the€two€sections€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€The€user€mustÏtherefore€be€careful€to€check€that€the€monitor€lists€agree€in€both€number€and€order.€€A€mistake€inÏnumber€is€usually€manifest€as€a€monitor€with€all€zero€concentrations.€€A€mistake€in€order€resultsÏin€two€monitors€having€each€otherððs€data€(and€hence€mean€concentration).€€These€problems€wereÏchecked€for€and€eliminated€from€the€model€runs.€ÌÌòòÔ_ÔMicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€FactorsóóÐ   ÐThe€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€are€used€to€estimate€concentration€for€each€of€the€37€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_ÔÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô,€which€are€modeled€as€linear€functions€of€the€ambient€concentration.€€€TheÏfactors€used€for€the€present€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs€were€a€modified€version€of€factors€used€in€earlier€runs.€ÏThe€major€change€is€that€the€additive€terms€were€all€set€to€zero€in€the€current€runs,€to€eliminateÏnon„ambient€sources.€€A€second€change€from€previous€sets€of€factors€is€that€the€four€residentialÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€have€been€combined,€using€a€common€factor€which€is€the€average€of€the€fourÏseparate€factors€used€previously.€€€The€factors€used€for€the€current€set€of€model€runs€are€listed€inÏTable€2.ÌÌÌòòMeteorological€DataóóÐ K!F& ÐHourly€average€temperature€data€was€obtained€in€hourly€format€for€each€of€the€fourteen€urbanÏareas€for€calendar€year€1990.€€€A€PC„SAS€program€called€Ô_ÔMET.SASÔ_Ô€was€written€to€calculateÏdaily€mean€and€maximum€and€write€these€values€to€files€in€the€format€used€by€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€TheÏfiles€were€then€transferred€to€the€IBM€mainframe€as€members€of€a€partitioned€data€set.€ÌÌThe€only€function€of€the€meteorological€data€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€is€to€select€activity€patterns€based€on€aÏdistinction€between€ððwarmðð€and€ððcoolðð€days.€€The€winter€and€summer€seasons€have€differentÐ ù*ô#4 Ðdefinitions:€warm€days€start€at€55òòð-ðóóF€and€84òòð-ðóóF€in€winter€and€summer,€respectively.€€The€frequencyÐ  Ðof€warm€and€cool€days€for€each€calendar€quarter€is€given€in€Table€3€for€each€of€the€fourteen€studyÏareas.€€€ÌÌòòPopulation€DataóóÐ  ˆ ÐThe€1990€U.S.€tract€level€population€data€was€provided€by€the€EPA€in€the€form€of€three€files€perÏstudy€area.€€(There€were€too€many€variables€for€their€software€to€handle€on€a€single€file).€€A€PC„¼SAS€program€called€Ô_ÔALLCITIES.SASÔ_Ô€was€written€to€read€these€files€and€reorganize€the€data€intoÏ25€output€directories€as€required€by€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€Each€of€these€directories€contained€fourteen€filesÏ(one€file€per€study€area).€€Upon€transfer€to€the€IBM,€each€directory€became€a€partitioned€data€setÏand€each€file€became€a€member.€€ÌÌThe€population€files€did€not€always€completely€cover€the€intended€study€area.€€The€three€mainÏareas€that€were€missing€were€Union€County€NJ€(part€of€NYC);€Alexandria€and€Fairfax€cities€inÏVirginia€(part€of€Ô_ÔWDCÔ_Ô);€and€the€Illinois€counties€near€St.€Louis€(Ô_ÔSTLÔ_Ô).€€€The€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€modelÏprocessed€all€available€data.€€The€missing€data€do€not€affect€the€estimates€for€the€other€countiesÏin€their€study€areas€at€all€for€the€18€non„commuting€demographic€groups,€and€have€at€most€aÏsmall€effect€on€the€commuting€patterns€for€the€remaining€five€demographic€groups€since€theÏcentral€city€areas€were€not€missing€in€any€of€these€cases.ÌÌThe€populations€of€specific€demographic€groups€appear€in€the€county€and€district€tables€inÏAppendices€A1„A14.€€€These€values€are€consistent€with€the€census€definitions€for€all€but€the€threeÏdemographic€groups€(outdoor€children,€outdoor€workers,€and€heart€and€respiratory€problems)€thatÏare€not€directly€based€on€census€data.€€€Some€explanatory€notes€regarding€the€calculation€andÏmeaning€of€these€populations€are€provided€in€the€results€section.€€ÌÌTable€4€summarizes€the€population€data€used€in€the€model€runs.€€For€each€county,€the€totalÐ ù*ô#4 Ðpopulation€from€the€census,€and€the€population€in€the€portion€of€the€county€inside€the€study€areaÏare€given.€€A€flag€is€also€provided.€€There€are€two€criteria€which€may€set€the€flag:€a)€if€Ô_ÔHAPPOPÔ_ÔÏis€less€than€half€of€the€census€population,€and€b)€if€the€population€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€monitor€districts€1„¼18€totals€less€than€a€quarter€of€€the€census€population.€€If€either€condition€is€met€then€the€flag€isÏset€to€one.€€Table€4€is€also€used€to€report€average€exposure€level€by€county,€which€is€a€modelingÏresult€and€is€discussed€in€a€later€section€of€the€report.ÌÌòòTime„Activity€DataóóÐ ³®  ÐThe€time„activity€database€containing€duration€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€was€supplied€with€theÏcurrent€version€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€€No€additional€activity€survey€data€were€added€(or€deleted)€for€theÏcurrent€runs,€but€the€existing€data€were€reorganized€into€array€form€of€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€by€hourÏby€home„work,€while€standardizing€the€record€lengths€for€all€the€person„days.€This€allowed€for€aÏsimplification€of€the€programs€to€read€and€process€data€that€were€already€in€array€form.€€ThereÏare€3568€person„days€of€data.€€€The€time„activity€file€is€named€Ô_ÔMEDUR.DATAÔ_Ô.€€€As€one€of€theÏfirst€steps€in€the€model€runs,€the€program€Ô_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ô€was€run€to€calculate€averages€for€each€Ïdemographic€group.€€This€summarized€activity€data€is€stored€on€the€file€Ô_ÔAVMEDUR.DATAÔ_Ô.€€€ÌÐ  %   ÐÑe°Ñò òResultsó óÐ  ÐÌThe€foregoing€sections€of€this€report€detail€the€changes€and€enhancements€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€that€wereÏcarried€out€for€the€calculation€of€population€exposure€to€CO€in€fourteen€urban€areas.€€€The€majorÏresult€of€the€modifications€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€are€twofold.€€€The€range€of€calculations€that€can€be€carriedÏout€by€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€has€been€extended€in€certain€directions€(e.g.€calculation€of€exposure€byÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô).€€The€second€result€is€that€file€management€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€output€files€can€beÏcarried€out€in€an€efficient€manner.€€Since€there€are€no€longer€multiple€runs€for€simulation€ofÏspecific€sequences€of€daily€activity€patterns€over€a€quarter€or€year,€€the€number€of€output€files€toÏbe€managed€in€any€run€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€has€been€reduced€significantly.€€€Results€for€multiple€citiesÏcan€be€shared€in€partitioned€data€sets€so€that€single€data€sets€are€used€to€accumulate€outputs€fromÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€ÌÌDetailed€CO€exposure€results€from€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs€are€given€in€tables€in€Appendices€A1€„€A14Ïto€this€report;€one€section€for€each€of€the€fourteen€study€areas.€€For€every€study€area€the€followingÏtables€are€provided:Ìà  à1)€city„wide€exposure€by€quarter€and€annually€for€all€demographic€groups,Ìà  à2)€county€level€exposure€by€quarter€and€annually€for€all€demographic€groups,Ìà  à3)€air€district€tables€of€exposure€by€quarter€and€annually€for€all€demographic€groups,Ìà  à4)€a€table€of€percentile€distribution€of€annual€citywide€exposure€for€all€persons,Ìà  à5)€a€table€of€Ô_ÔfractilesÔ_Ô€of€annual€citywide€exposure€for€all€persons,à0  àЭ"¨( (# (# Ðà  à6)€a€table€of€citywide€accumulated€exposure€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€for€all€personsÌà  à7)€a€table€of€citywide€average€concentration€and€duration€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô,€Ìà  à8)€a€table€of€citywide€average€hourly€exposure€for€all€persons€(diurnals).à0 x àÐÓ&Î.x(#x(# ÐIn€addition,€a€map€of€each€study€area€is€provided€in€Appendix€B.ÌÌExcept€for€the€tables€of€accumulated€exposure€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô,€all€the€other€exposureÏtables€report€exposure€in€units€of€micrograms€per€cubic€meter€(Ô_ÔððgÔ_Ô/Ô_Ôm3Ô_Ô).€€This€is€not€strictly€anÐ [,V%6 Ðexposure,€which€should€have€the€units€of€(concentration€x€time),€but€an€exposure€rate.€€ItÏrepresents€the€time„weighted€average€concentration€to€which€the€group€is€exposed€over€the€timeÏperiod€of€interest.€€€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€has€traditionally€expressed€exposures€in€this€way,€which€allows€forÏeasier€comparisons€between€different€time€periods,€such€as€hourly,€daily,€quarterly,€and€annualÏexposures.€€The€exception€to€this€is€the€table€of€accumulated€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€exposures,Ïwhich€depend€heavily€on€duration€and€indicate€the€relative€contributions€of€eachÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€to€the€total.€€The€second€table€showing€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€breakoutsÏindicates€the€average€concentrations€and€durations€that€compose€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_ÔÏexposure.€€ÌÌòòExposure€ResultsóóÐ ÙÔ  ÐTable€4€contains€county€level€populations€and€annual€exposure€levels€for€all€persons.€€The€censusÏpopulation€(for€the€entire€county)€is€given€in€the€CENSUS€column.€€The€population€of€the€part€ofÏthe€county€included€in€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€run€is€in€the€column€labeled€Ô_ÔHAPPOPÔ_Ô.€€For€counties€whichÏare€only€partly€in€the€study€area€this€number€is€less€than€the€total€county€population.€€The€flagÏindicates€whether€or€not€the€county€passes€both€of€the€population€criteria.€€The€first€of€these€isÏthat€at€least€half€of€the€county€population€be€included€in€the€study€area.€€The€second€is€that€atÏleast€a€quarter€of€the€county€population€be€within€10€km€of€an€ambient€monitor€(i.e.€in€districts€Ì1„18).€€If€both€conditions€are€met€then€the€FLAG€variable€is€set€to€zero€and€the€exposureÏestimates€on€the€maps€in€Appendix€B€are€colored€in€green.€€If€either€condition€is€not€met€thenÏFLAG=1,€and€the€bar€on€the€map€is€colored€yellow.€€ÌÌòòCity„Wide€and€County„Wide€TablesóóÐ q%l, ÐThe€city„wide€and€county„wide€tables€share€the€same€format;€€both€provide€the€mean€and€theÏstandard€deviation€of€CO€exposures€in€micrograms€per€cubic€meter€(Ô_ÔððgÔ_Ô/Ô_Ôm3Ô_Ô)€by€calendar€quarterÏand€annually€for€the€twenty€three€demographic€groups€considered€for€this€report.€€In€addition,€€theÏpopulation€numbers€as€used€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€for€each€demographic€group€are€listed€in€a€separateÏcolumn€of€the€output.€€In€the€header€on€each€page€are€the€total€county€population,€the€populationÐ [,V%6 Ðin€the€area€used€by€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô,€and€the€population€assigned€to€district€19€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€(which€is€theÏdistrict€composed€of€all€tracts€not€within€10€km€of€any€air€monitor).€€The€larger€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_ÔÏpopulation€and€the€smaller€the€District€19€population,€the€more€reliable€are€the€exposureÏestimates.€€At€the€end€of€the€header€the€estimates€either€pass€or€do€not€pass€the€population€criteriaÏ(this€is€the€flag€discussed€in€Table€4).€€€At€the€bottom€of€each€page€the€final€five€lines€identify€the€Ïdemographic€group€with€the€highest€exposure€in€each€quarter€and€annually.€€€There€is€one€city„¼wide€table€for€each€study€area,€and€one€table€per€county€(from€1€to€18€additional€tables€per€studyÏarea).ÌÌòòAir€District€TablesóóÐ wr  ÐThe€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€model€divides€the€study€area€into€a€set€of€non„overlapping€air€districts,€which€areÏcomposed€of€census€tracts€located€within€10€km€of€an€ambient€carbon€monoxide€monitor.€€ThereÏis€one€air€district€per€monitor,€plus€an€additional€district€(#€19)€which€is€assigned€the€city„wideÏaverage€concentration€(i.e.€the€average€of€all€the€monitors).€€The€tables€by€air€district€have€theÏsame€format€as€the€city„wide€and€county€level€tables,€showing€the€mean€and€standard€deviationÏof€exposure€both€quarterly€and€annually,€along€with€the€identification€of€the€demographic€groupsÏwith€the€highest€exposures.€€€There€are€from€five€to€seventeen€air€districts€in€each€study€area.ÌÌòòHourly€(Diurnal)€Exposure€TablesóóÐ éä$ ÐA€table€of€the€calendar€quarter€and€annual€average€CO€exposures€by€hour€of€the€day€is€includedÏfor€each€study€area.€€€The€table€applies€to€all€persons€in€the€study€area..€€The€table€reports€theÏaverage€hourly€exposure€in€Ô_ÔððgÔ_Ô/Ô_Ôm3Ô_Ô€and€the€percent€of€the€daily€total€exposure€obtained€during€thatÏhour.€€If€exposure€were€constant,€each€hour€would€contribute€4.17%€of€the€daily€total.€€€Hour€1€inÏthe€table€corresponds€to€the€hour€between€midnight€and€1€a.m.,€and€so€on.€€All€times€are€localÏand€refer€to€daylight€savings€time€when€applicable.€€€ÌÌThe€hourly€tables€do€not€include€an€estimation€of€€the€variance€due€to€selection€of€activityÏpatterns.€€Unlike€the€quarterly€and€annual€totals,€it€is€difficult€to€calculate€the€variation€for€theÐ [,V%6 Ðhourly€exposures€due€to€the€significant€covariance€between€hours.€€If€estimates€of€variance€wereÏdesired,€then€the€easiest€way€would€be€to€use€a€Monte€Carlo€approach€involving€multiple€runs€toÏgauge€the€extent€of€this€variation.ÌÌòòÔ_ÔMicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€Exposure€TablesóóÐ  ˆ ÐThe€exposures€per€quarter€and€annually€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€are€presented€in€two€tables€for€eachÏstudy€area.€€The€first€table€gives€the€accumulated€exposure€and€the€percentage€of€the€total€acrossÏall€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô.€€This€table€is€useful€in€distinguishing€the€relative€importance€of€theÏvarious€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€to€the€long„term€total€exposure.€€The€second€table€reports€the€averageÏconcentrations€and€durations€in€each€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô.€€As€discussed€in€the€uncertainty€sectionÏof€the€report,€these€tables€should€be€used€with€caution€as€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€with€long€totalÏdurations€are€based€on€relatively€more€sample€data,€and€hence€have€more€reliable€durations€andÏconcentrations€than€do€those€with€short€total€duration.€€€The€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€model€is€designed€toÏestimate€the€total€exposure€over€a€year€(or€quarter),€and€these€totals€have€less€relative€error€thanÏthe€total€for€any€one€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô.€€As€for€the€hourly€tables,€due€to€covariance€in€exposureÏamong€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô,€it€is€difficult€to€calculate€variances€computationally.€€If€an€estimateÏwere€necessary,€then€a€Monte€Carlo€approach€could€be€used€although€this€would€substantiallyÏincrease€the€computer€time€needed€for€the€modeling.€ÌÌòòPercentiles€and€Ô_ÔFractilesÔ_ÔóóÐ K!F& ÐCharacterizations€of€the€distribution€of€exposure€to€CO€across€a€study€area€for€a€singleÏdemographic€group€(All€persons)€are€presented€in€tables€of€selected€percentiles€and€Ô_ÔfractilesÔ_Ô.€€ÏSince€the€city„wide€annual€CO€exposure€represents€a€population€weighted€average€across€all€airÏdistricts,€€the€variation€in€annual€CO€exposure€of€differences€between€air€districts€due€to€airÏquality€are€to€a€large€extent€averaged€out.€€€This€leads€to€a€very€small€standard€deviation€for€theÏcity„wide€annual€CO€exposure.€€Thus,€the€distribution€based€on€the€city„wide€annual€COÏexposure€is€very€narrow€and€does€not€capture€the€range€of€annual€CO€exposures€seen€across€airÏdistricts.€€€To€better€characterize€the€distribution€of€annual€CO€exposures€across€air€districts€in€aÐ [,V%6 Ðstudy€area,€the€following€procedure€was€adopted.ÌÌA€normal€distribution€of€annual€CO€exposure€was€constructed€for€each€air€district€in€a€study€areaÏusing€the€mean€and€standard€deviation€of€annual€CO€exposure€as€calculated€for€the€air€district€byÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€€The€total€mass€of€the€normal€distribution€for€a€particular€air€district€was€set€to€beÏproportional€to€the€percent€of€the€total€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€population€represented€by€the€air€district.€€TheÏsum€of€the€proportionality€factors€across€all€air€districts€(i.e.€for€the€study€area)€was€set€to€unity.€€ÏThus€a€population€weighted€distribution€for€annual€CO€exposure€was€constructed€for€the€wholeÏstudy€area.ÌÌThe€population€weighted€distribution€for€annual€CO€exposure€was€used€to€calculate€percentilesÏand€Ô_ÔfractilesÔ_Ô€for€annual€CO€exposure€in€the€usual€manner.€€€That€is,€€€for€the€Ô_ÔfractileÔ_Ô€calculation,€€Ïthe€level€of€the€annual€CO€exposure€was€set€and€the€percent€of€the€population€weightedÏdistribution€at€or€below€the€fixed€level€was€computed€by€summing€the€contributions€(in€percent)Ïfrom€the€portions€of€the€individual€air€district€distributions€at€or€below€the€fixed€level€of€annualÏCO€exposure.€€€Similarly€for€the€percentile€calculation,€€the€desired€percentile€was€fixed.€€€TheÏtotal€percent€of€the€annual€CO€exposure€was€accumulated€across€air€districts€for€increasing€levelsÏof€annual€CO€exposure€until€it€matched€the€fixed€percentile.€€The€value€of€the€annual€COÏexposure€at€this€point€is€taken€as€the€value€of€the€fixed€percentile.ÌÌThe€procedure€described€above€for€the€construction€of€percentiles€and€Ô_ÔfractilesÔ_Ô€for€annual€COÏexposure€across€a€study€area€is€not€to€be€interpreted€as€characterizing€the€distribution€of€annualÏCO€exposure€across€individuals€in€the€study€area.€€€The€calculations€pertain€to€variations€betweenÏthe€annual€CO€exposures€computed€from€the€annual€activity€sequences€as€composed€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€ÏAs€discussed€in€the€chapter€on€uncertainty€analysis,€€€other€ways€to€construct€annual€activityÏpatterns€can€be€considered€that€better€represent€activity€patterns€for€individuals.ÌÌòòPercentile€TablesóóÐ [,V%6 ÐA€table€of€percentiles€of€the€city„wide€annual€exposure€distribution€for€each€demographic€groupÏis€presented€for€each€study€area.€€€The€values€in€these€tables€indicate€the€average€concentrationsÏbelow€which€certain€proportions€of€the€demographic€group€population€are€exposed.€€The€pointsÏrepresented€in€these€tables€are€the€Ô_ÔquartilesÔ_Ô€and€the€90òòthóó,€95òòthóó,€and€99òòthóó€€percentiles€of€theÐ + & Ðdistribution.€€Most€of€the€variation€within€a€demographic€group€arises€from€the€distribution€of€theÏgroup€among€the€various€monitor€districts.€€Within€any€one€district,€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€does€not€adequatelyÏcapture€the€true€extent€of€the€variation€among€individuals,€for€reasons€discussed€elsewhere€in€thisÏreport.€€€It€is€not€correct€to€conclude€that€99%€of€the€individuals€in€a€study€area€are€exposedÏbelow€the€level€in€the€table;€rather€that€for€a€particular€demographic€group,€assigned€to€aÏparticular€air€district€with€a€probability€based€on€the€relative€population€of€that€district,€there€is€aÏ99%€chance€that€the€exposure€for€that€group€would€be€below€the€stated€concentration.ÌÌòòÔ_ÔFractileÔ_Ô€TablesóóÐ ˜ ÐA€table€of€Ô_ÔfractilesÔ_Ô€of€the€city„wide€annual€exposure€distribution€for€each€demographic€group€isÏpresented€for€each€study€area.€€€These€differ€from€the€percentile€tables€in€that€the€Ô_ÔfractileÔ_Ô€tablesÏshow€the€percentage€of€the€demographic€group€exposed€at€or€below€fixed€points€in€exposure,Ïwhereas€the€percentile€tables€showed€the€exposure€levels€for€fixed€percentage€points€in€theÏdistribution.€€€The€Ô_ÔfractileÔ_Ô€tables€indicate€the€fractions€at€or€below€each€100€Ô_ÔððgÔ_Ô/Ô_Ômòò3Ô_Ôóó€€increment.€€Ð ‡‚" ÐAll€€the€groups€in€all€study€areas€were€exposed€at€or€below€2000€€Ô_ÔððgÔ_Ô/Ô_Ômòò3Ô_Ôóó.€€The€remarks€regardingÐ éä$ Ðthe€individual€variation€within€monitor€districts€made€in€the€above€paragraph€on€percentile€tablesÏalso€pertain€to€the€Ô_ÔfractileÔ_Ô€tables.€€ÌÌÌòòData€VisualizationóóÐ Ó&Î. ÐA€series€of€fourteen€maps€(one€per€study€area)€are€presented€in€Appendix€B.€€Each€map€indicatesÏthe€extent€of€the€study€area€(generally,€census€tracts€within€50€km€of€the€center€of€the€study€area),Ïthe€population€density€(in€shades€of€red),€the€monitor€locations€(numbers€in€blue€boxes),€theÏextent€of€the€monitor€districts€(outlined€in€blue),€the€county€boundaries,€major€roads€and€bodiesÐ [,V%6 Ðof€water,€and€the€annual€average€exposure€level€for€all€persons€by€county€(vertical€bars).€€TheÏexposure€levels€use€green€bars€for€estimates€that€pass€the€population€criteria€and€yellow€bars€forÏthose€that€do€not€pass€(these€are€usually€counties€further€from€the€city€center).€€All€of€the€mapsÏare€drawn€to€the€same€scale€and€use€the€same€shadings€for€population€density€and€the€sameÏheight€scale€for€the€exposure€bars,€to€allow€for€comparisons€between€maps.€€The€center€of€theÏstudy€area€is€marked€and€a€50€km€radius€circle€is€drawn€to€indicate€the€potential€extent€of€theÏstudy€area.€€Not€all€counties€within€50€km€of€the€city€center€were€included€in€each€designatedÏstudy€area,€usually€because€the€census€definition€of€the€Ô_ÔMSAÔ_Ô€or€Ô_ÔCMSAÔ_Ô€did€not€include€them.€€InÏa€few€cases€(e.g.€Union€county€in€NJ€and€Alexandria€VA),€areas€which€should€have€beenÏincluded€were€not€because€the€tract€level€population€data€were€not€available€at€the€time€of€theÏmodel€runs.€€€€€ÌÌòòAdditional€Results€on€the€CD„ROMóóÐ ˜˜ ÐIn€addition€to€the€tables€in€this€report,€the€CD„ROM€contains€tables€of€hourly€exposures,€ÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€exposures,€concentrations,€and€durations,€and€percentile€tables€and€Ô_ÔfractileÔ_ÔÏtables€for€each€demographic€group€in€each€study€area.€€All€of€the€tables€are€provided€in€ASCIIÏfiles,€without€headers€and€page€breaks,€ready€to€read€into€a€program€or€spreadsheet.€€In€addition,Ïall€of€the€tables€printed€in€Appendices€A1„A14€of€this€report€are€available€in€electronic€form€onÏthe€CD„ROM€as€WordPerfect€files.€€Descriptions€of€the€directory€structure€and€file€formats€are€toÏbe€found€in€README€files€on€the€CD„ROM.ÌÌÌÌÑÃÈÑò òDiscussionó óÐ Î&Î. ÐÌResults€on€population€exposure€to€carbon€monoxide€from€ambient€air€were€generated€using€theÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€model€as€applied€to€23€demographic€groups€in€14€urban€areas.€€€The€changes€Ïmade€in€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€computational€method€have€allowed€for€a€more€efficient€use€of€computerÐ V,V%6 Ðresources,€with€the€result€that€a€very€extensive€set€of€output€tables€can€now€be€generated€withÏrelative€ease.€€The€difficulty€has€now€shifted€from€the€production€of€the€results€to€theÏinterpretation€of€the€results.€€It€is€not€possible€to€examine€all€the€tables€in€detail;€it€is€not€evenÏpractical€to€print€all€of€the€tables€that€were€generated.€€€However,€the€salient€points€relating€toÏeach€type€of€table€are€discussed€below.ÌÌòòCity„Wide€and€County„Wide€TablesóóÐ LL  ÐThe€city„wide€tables€provide€a€comparison€of€results€across€demographic€groups€and€quarters.€€AÏgeneral€result€is€that€the€outdoor€worker€group€usually€had€the€highest€exposure€in€all€study€areas.€ÏThis€is€reasonable,€since€these€model€runs€were€intended€to€represent€exposure€to€ambient€air,Ïand€this€exposure€is€naturally€higher€outdoors€than€indoors.€€Another€general€result€is€that€theÏfirst€and€fourth€quarters€have€higher€exposures€than€the€second€and€third€quarters.€€This€is€a€wellÏknown€property€of€carbon€monoxide€concentrations€(due€to€slower€dispersion€in€winter)€and€it€isÏexpected€that€exposure€patterns€would€be€similar.€€In€all€cases,€the€computed€variances€inÏexposure€are€found€to€be€smaller€than€those€from€previous€runs€of€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€model.€€This€isÏdue€to€the€choice€of€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€and€is€discussed€at€greater€length€in€theÏsensitivity€analysis€report.€€In€short,€the€absence€of€additive€factors€results€in€less€difference€inÏconcentration€between€two€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô,€and€hence€less€variation€in€exposure€due€toÏdifferences€in€activity€patterns.ÌÌAll€the€population€numbers€in€the€tables€except€for€three€specialized€demographic€groupsÏ(outdoor€children,€outdoor€workers,€and€heart€and€respiratory€problems)€are€derived€directly€fromÏthe€1990€census.€€The€numbers€pertain€to€those€tracts€included€in€the€study€area,€not€necessarilyÏthe€entire€Metropolitan€Statistical€Area€(Ô_ÔMSAÔ_Ô).€€€There€are€two€main€breakouts€which€shouldÏinclude€each€person€exactly€one:€the€five€income€categories,€and€the€eleven€categories€fromÏchildren€age€0„17€to€women€age€65+.€€€The€totals€in€these€categories€are€very€close€to€(but€notÏalways€exactly€equal)€the€population€of€all€persons.€€Possible€reasons€for€this€are€a)€the€manner€inÏwhich€missing€responses€are€handled,€b)€the€extrapolation€of€information€obtained€only€on€theÐ V,V%6 Ðlong€census€form€(given€to€1/6€of€the€households)€to€the€rest€of€the€population,€and€c)€roundingÏerrors€when€percentages€are€applied€to€the€population.€€€The€first€two€demographic€groups€areÏCaucasians€and€African„Americans.€€The€census€also€considers€other€races€such€as€Asian,ÏAmerican€Indian,€and€Other,€but€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€does€not€have€enough€time„activity€data€for€theseÏgroups€to€calculate€a€valid€exposure€estimate.€€The€third€group€in€the€tables€is€the€HispanicÏgroup.€€The€census€bureau€asks€respondents€if€they€consider€themselves€Hispanic€in€a€separateÏquestion€from€the€question€on€race.€€Therefore,€Hispanics€might€also€be€counted€in€one€of€theÏrace€categories€(e.g.€Caucasian,€or€African„American,€or€Other)€as€well.€€Due€to€the€missing€raceÏgroups,€and€the€possible€double€counting€of€Hispanics,€the€first€three€demographic€groups€mayÏnumerically€add€up€to€either€less€or€more€than€the€all€persons€group.€€The€three€groups€notÏsupplied€by€the€census€(outdoor€children,€outdoor€workers,€and€heart€and€respiratory€problems)Ïwere€defined€for€previous€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs€carried€out€by€IT€Corporation.€€The€fractions€of€outdoorÏchildren€and€of€people€with€heart€and€respiratory€problems€are€functions€of€age.€€These€areÏaggregated€over€the€known€age€distributions€for€each€study€area.€€The€fraction€of€OutdoorÏWorkers€as€a€function€of€occupation€was€also€determined€by€IT€Corporation,€using€data€for€LosÏAngeles€in€1994.€€These€fractions€were€applied€to€the€census€data€on€occupational€€category€forÏeach€study€area.€€ÌÌThe€county€level€tables€exhibit€the€same€patterns€in€exposure€as€the€city„wide€tables.€€TheÏprimary€difference€between€counties€is€the€overall€level€of€exposure.€€The€relative€ranking€ofÏdemographic€groups€and€of€quarters€is€generally€the€same€across€counties.€€This€is€due€to€the€useÏof€the€same€activity€patterns,€the€same€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors,€and€the€same€meteorologicalÏdata€in€all€counties€in€a€study€area.€€The€only€difference€is€in€the€ambient€air€quality,€which€actsÏas€an€overall€scale€factor€which€applies€to€all€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€and€demographic€groups.€ÏSome€differences€between€demographic€groups€arise€at€the€county€level€due€to€differentÏpopulations€per€air€district€(hence€different€county„wide€averages),€but€the€general€rankings€ofÏthe€demographic€group€exposures€are€similar€in€most€counties.ÌÐ V,V%6 ÐThe€demographic€group€with€the€highest€exposure€was€the€Outdoor€Worker€group,€while€theÏHeart€and€Respiratory€Problem€group€generally€had€the€lowest€exposure.€€These€results€are€due€toÏdifferences€in€the€activity€patterns.€€The€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€are€generally€higher€forÏoutdoor€locations€as€compared€to€indoor€ones.€€Comparisons€between€groups€based€on€race€orÏincome€differences€tend€to€be€small€in€counties€with€only€one€air€district,€indicating€that€exposureÏdifferences€due€to€activity€patterns€alone€are€not€very€great.€€For€counties€with€two€or€more€airÏdistricts,€larger€differences€are€seen,€reflecting€the€geographical€separation€of€the€groups.€€€BothÏthe€individual€counties€and€the€citywide€averages€show€that€males€have€consistently€higherÏexposures€than€females.€€This€is€almost€certainly€due€to€the€fact€that€men€spend€more€timeÏoutdoors€and€in€travel€than€women€do€on€average.€€Finally,€for€suburban€counties€such€as€AdamsÏand€Ô_ÔArapahoeÔ_Ô€in€the€Denver€study€area,€the€working€groups€had€higher€exposures€than€the€similarÏnon„working€groups.€€This€is€to€be€expected€since€many€of€the€workers€commute€to€the€relativelyÏhigher€€exposure€downtown€area.€€ÌÌAs€an€example€of€county€comparisons€within€a€study€area,€in€Denver€the€central€county€(DenverÏcounty)€has€the€highest€exposure€for€all€demographic€groups.€€The€lowest€exposures€are€found€inÏBoulder€county,€which€is€at€a€higher€elevation€and€is€less€urbanized€than€Denver.€€Adams,ÏÔ_ÔArapahoeÔ_Ô,€and€Jefferson€counties€all€extend€from€suburban€and€rural€areas€almost€to€the€heavilyÏurbanized€downtown€section€of€Denver.€€As€might€be€expected,€these€counties€had€similarÏexposures,€which€were€lower€than€those€for€central€Denver.€€The€sixth€county€in€the€study€areaÏwas€Weld€county.€€Only€a€small€portion€of€this€county€was€included€in€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€run,€all€inÏdistrict€#19,€so€the€estimate€is€close€to€the€citywide€average.€€This€is€due€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ôððs€internalÏassumptions.€€The€true€exposure€level€for€Weld€county€is€not€known.€€For€the€Denver€study€areaÏthere€was€only€one€county€predominantly€in€district€#19,€but€in€other€study€areas€there€were€oftenÏseveral€such€counties.€€A€flag€has€been€created€to€indicate€such€counties,€and€applied€to€the€tablesÏand€maps.€€In€total,€47€out€of€102€counties€pass€this€test€(indicated€using€green€bars€on€the€maps).€Ï€ÌÐ V,V%6 ÐòòAir€District€TablesóóÐ  ÐMost€of€the€comments€made€regarding€the€city„wide€and€county„wide€tables€also€apply€to€the€airÏdistrict€tables.€€€Within€air€districts€there€are€no€longer€any€differences€between€demographicÏgroups€based€on€location€(as€there€were€in€the€county€and€city€tables),€so€the€ranking€of€theÏdemographic€groups€is€even€more€similar€across€air€districts€than€the€ranking€across€counties.€ÏSome€differences€in€ranking€still€exist€because€the€groups€average€a€different€amount€of€time€inÏeach€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô,€and€each€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€has€a€different€dependence€on€the€ambientÏconcentration.€€€The€results€for€air€districts€show€(as€for€counties)€that€the€Outdoor€Workers€wereÏusually€the€group€with€the€highest€exposure€and€the€Heart€and€Respiratory€Problem€group€had€theÏlowest€exposure.€€ÌÌòòHourly€(Diurnal)€TablesóóÐ 66 ÐThe€sequence€of€24€hourly€exposures€characterizes€the€diurnal€exposure€pattern.€€While€the€CD„¼ROM€contains€one€table€for€each€demographic€group,€for€brevity€only€the€table€for€all€persons€isÏprinted€in€this€report.€€The€diurnal€patterns€generally€follow€a€standard€pattern,€with€a€sharp€peakÏaround€8„9€a.m.€and€a€somewhat€lower€but€broader€peak€from€7„11€p.m.€€These€patterns€resembleÏstandard€diurnal€CO€ambient€concentration€profiles€primarily€due€to€traffic€patterns.€€The€twoÏtraffic€driven€peaks€are€stronger€in€the€winter€(first€and€fourth€quarters)€than€in€the€summer.€€InÏthe€second€quarter€the€evening€peak€almost€vanishes.€€This€is€due€to€the€relatively€late€sunsets€inÏMay€and€June,€which€allow€time€for€the€evening€rush€hour€emissions€to€disperse€before€theÏstrong€solar„driven€convective€mixing€ceases.€€ÌÌòòÔ_ÔMicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€TablesÐ l%l, ÐóóAs€with€the€hourly€tables,€the€full€set€of€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€tables€is€available€on€the€CD„ROM.Ð Î&Î. ÐThe€tables€for€the€group€of€all€persons€are€printed€in€this€report.€€There€are€two€tables€for€eachÏstudy€area:€a€table€of€contributions€to€total€(accumulated)€exposure€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô,€and€aÏtable€of€average€concentrations€and€durations€in€each€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ôò ò.€€ó óIt€should€be€noted€thatÐ ô*ô#4 Ðthe€tables€reflect€a€population€weighted€average€for€all€the€people€in€the€demographic€group,€notÐ \,\%6 Ðfor€any€one€individual.€€ÌÌAs€expected,€the€highest€proportion€of€total€exposure€comes€from€the€in„homeÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô,€due€to€the€great€amount€of€time€spent€there.€€Next€in€importance€are€travelÏ(mostly€by€car)€and€exposure€in€an€office€or€school.€€The€relative€contributions€of€the€variousÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€indicate€the€ones€that€dominate€the€determination€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€results.€ÏTherefore,€any€attempt€to€reduce€the€uncertainty€in€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€model€by€improving€theÏcharacterization€of€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€will€have€a€larger€impact€if€it€focuses€on€theseÏdominant€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô.€€€The€differences€in€relative€contributions€(i.e.€percent€of€total)€byÏquarter€are€not€very€large.€€ÌÌThe€second€table€illustrates€the€relative€contribution€of€concentration€and€duration€to€theÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€exposure.€€Generally,€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€with€high€exposure€also€haveÏlong€durations,€meaning€that€people€spend€a€lot€of€time€there.€€The€variations€in€concentrationÏacross€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€are€relatively€small,€and€are€mostly€due€to€the€differences€in€theirÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors.€€The€most€dominant€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€in€accumulated€exposure€isÏthe€home,€despite€having€a€moderate€average€concentration.€The€high€concentrationÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€generally€had€relatively€short€durations€and€they€did€not€dominate€theÏexposure€results.€€A€caution€should€be€made€here€against€relying€on€the€accuracy€of€either€theÏconcentration€or€the€duration€for€those€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€with€small€accumulated€exposures:Ïthe€time„activity€database€poorly€samples€those€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€and€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_ÔÏfactors€are€generally€based€on€fewer€data€points€than€for€the€more€common€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô.€ÏThe€numbers€which€are€most€reliable€are€those€which€contribute€more€heavily€to€the€overall€total.ÌNote€also€that€these€concentrations€reflect€only€the€portion€of€CO€in€that€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_ÔÏattributable€to€the€ambient€air€and€does€not€include€local€sources.€ÌÌòòVisualization€of€OutputóóÐ ô*ô#4 ÐÐ V,V%6 ÐFor€each€of€the€study€areas€a€map€is€presented€in€Appendix€B€displaying€the€population€density€atÏthe€tract€level,€the€outlines€of€the€counties€and€the€air€districts,€with€a€vertical€bar€in€each€countyÏrepresenting€the€annual€exposure€estimate€for€all€persons.€€€The€maps€generally€show€that€theÏpopulation€density€has€declined€to€low€levels€by€the€50€km€boundary€except€for€the€very€largestÏcities€(Los€Angeles€and€New€York).€€€In€a€few€cases€(particularly€for€Union€County€NJ,ÏAlexandria€VA,€and€the€counties€in€Illinois€near€St.€Louis),€population€data€were€not€availableÏfor€areas€that€would€otherwise€have€been€included€in€the€studies.€€These€areas€have€no€impact€onÏthe€exposure€estimates€for€other€counties€in€the€same€study€areas,€apart€from€a€slight€effect€on€theÏfive€commuting€demographic€groups.€€ÌÌA€general€feature€of€the€fourteen€areas€is€the€concentration€of€monitor€locations€near€the€cityÏcenter.€€This€is€pronounced€in€all€cities€except€New€York,€Los€Angeles,€and€Philadelphia.€€InÏBaltimore€and€Washington,€for€example,€all€the€monitors€are€close€to€the€central€cities€and€thereÏare€no€monitors€at€all€between€the€two€cities.€€The€effect€of€this€is€that€the€exposure€estimates€forÏthe€central€counties€tend€to€be€based€primarily€on€monitor€data€(green€exposure€bars),€whereasÏthe€estimates€for€the€outer€counties€are€often€based€on€only€a€portion€of€the€tracts€in€the€county,Ïand€often€these€tracts€are€not€particularly€close€to€an€ambient€monitor€(hence€they€are€put€inÏdistrict€19).€€€The€result€is€that€most€of€the€outer€counties€in€each€study€area€have€estimates€whichÏprobably€do€not€well€represent€the€counties.€€These€have€been€flagged€and€colored€with€yellowÏexposure€bars€on€the€maps.€€Due€to€the€predominance€of€district€19€in€these€counties,€theÏestimates€are€often€at€or€very€close€to€the€overall€city„wide€mean€exposure.€€In€order€to€makeÏexposure€estimates€for€the€population€in€these€(sometimes€extensive)€regions€far€from€ambientÏmonitors,€a€method€either€of€interpolation€between€monitors€(or€of€modeling€the€distribution€ofÏCO€in€each€study€area)€would€be€required.€€That€task€is€beyond€the€scope€of€this€report.ÌÌÐ  ’)’"2 Ðò òSummaryó óÐ +  ÐÌThe€enhancements€to€the€running€of€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€model€now€allow€€the€analyst€to€generate€a€veryÏlarge€amount€of€data€in€a€relatively€short€time.€€This€is€reflected€in€the€number€of€output€tablesÏfrom€the€model€runs.€€€From€this€point€on,€the€interpretation€of€the€results€may€consume€moreÏtime€than€the€production€of€the€actual€runs€themselves.€€This€would€be€the€case€not€only€for€theÏpresent€set€of€fourteen€study€areas,€but€also€for€any€new€study€areas,€despite€the€need€of€the€latterÏfor€data€pre„processing€prior€to€running€the€model.€€Running€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€for€other€years€besidesÏ1990€would€not€be€difficult,€as€long€as€the€same€(1990)€census€data€could€be€used.€€The€mainÏlimitation€to€applying€the€model€to€other€study€areas€is€that€most€new€areas€would€have€fewer€COÏmonitors€than€the€fourteen€areas€already€examined.€€There€are€over€3100€counties€in€the€countryÏbut€only€around€500€ambient€CO€monitors,€so€most€of€the€counties€are€not€monitored€at€all.€€€ÌÌThe€results€generally€show€consistent€patterns€across€most€study€areas.€€The€first€and€fourthÏquarters€(winter)€have€higher€exposures€than€the€other€two€quarters.€€The€Outdoor€WorkersÏgenerally€are€the€group€with€the€highest€exposure€in€each€study€area.€€The€central€cities€usuallyÏhave€higher€exposures€than€the€suburbs€and€are€also€more€heavily€monitored.€€The€hourlyÏexposure€profiles€generally€indicate€traffic€patterns,€with€peaks€at€and€following€the€morning€andÏevening€rush€hours.€€The€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€tables€indicate€the€home,€office,€school€and€travelÏare€the€major€sources€of€CO€exposure€for€the€demographic€groups€considered€in€this€report.€€ÌÑeÑÔ‡Xøû XXX3ÔÐ  Ó$¨( ÐÑÑÑTRP$Ø'3 Letter LandscapeXà3Ø' LetterØ'3 Letter Landscapeÿ3Ø'TÑԇ XXøûÔÖ€ØÖà  àà ` àà ¸ àà  àà h àà À àÔ#†Xøû X”R#Ôò òTABLE€1ó óÐ  ÐÌÔ‡ô:{õ XXøûÔList€of€ambient€CO€monitors€(from€AIRS)€operating€in€1990€within€50€km€of€the€designated€city€center.Ð ¾¦ ÐMonitors€with€less€than€75%€data€capture€(6570€hourly€values)€were€not€used€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs.ÌFor€co„located€monitors,€the€one€with€greater€data€capture€was€used.ÌThe€average€concentration€of€the€filled„in€time€series€used€by€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€is€given€in€under€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô.€€ÌMonitors€not€used€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runs€have€Ô_ÔSITENUMÔ_Ô=x€and€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô=Ô_ÔxxxxÔ_Ô.€ÌAll€concentrations€reported€in€parts€per€million€(Ô_ÔppmÔ_Ô).Ô#†Xøû Xõô:{VS#Ôԇ XXøûÔÐ O7 ÐÌÌSTUDY€AREA€€€€Ô_ÔNUMÔ_Ô€€€SITE€€€€Ô_ÔSITENUMÔ_Ô€Ô_ÔUTMZÔ_Ô€€€Ô_ÔUTMNORTHÔ_Ô€€€Ô_ÔUTMEASTÔ_Ô€€€€€DIST€€€€€€N€€€€€€MIN€€€€MEAN€€€€€€€MAX€€€€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_ÔÌÓ€ÓÌBALTIMORE€€€€€€1€€€CENTER€€€€€€0€€€€€18à0 À à€€€4350.1€€€€€360.7€€€€€€€0.0€€€€€€€€€0€€€€0€€€€€€0€€€€€€€€€€€0€€€€€€€€Ðû Àà.Àà. 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àTABLE€4€(continued)€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€Ì€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ÌSTUDY€AREA€€€€€Ô_ÔNUMÔ_Ô€€COUNTY€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€Ô_ÔFIPSÔ_Ô€€€€CENSUS€€€Ô_ÔHAPPOPÔ_Ô€€FLAG€€EXPOSUREÌ€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ÌSan€Francisco€€11€€€Santa€Clara€County€€€€€06085€€1497577€€1321940€€€€0€€€€€€772€€€€ÌSan€Francisco€€11€€€Santa€Cruz€County€€€€€€06087€€€229734€€€€12867€€€€1€€€€€€698€€€Ì€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ÌSpokane€€€€€€€€12€€€Spokane€County€€€€€€€€€53063€€€361364€€€361364€€€€0€€€€€1172€€€Ì€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ÌSt.€Louis€€€€€€13€€€Jefferson€County€€€€€€€29099€€€171380€€€133376€€€€1€€€€€€443€€€€ÌSt.€Louis€€€€€€13€€€St.€Charles€County€€€€€29183€€€212751€€€175339€€€€1€€€€€€443€€€ÌSt.€Louis€€€€€€13€€€St.€Louis€County€€€€€€€29189€€€993529€€€993529€€€€0€€€€€€420€€€ÌSt.€Louis€€€€€€13€€€St.€Louis€city€€€€€€€€€29510€€€396685€€€396685€€€€0€€€€€€473€€€Ì€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€ÌWashington€DC€€14€€€District€of€Columbia€€€11001€€€606900€€€606900€€€€0€€€€€€696€€€ÌWashington€DC€€14€€€Ô_ÔCalvertÔ_Ô€County€€€€€€€€€24009€€€€51372€€€€16095€€€€1€€€€€€505€€€ÌWashington€DC€€14€€€Charles€County€€€€€€€€€24017€€€101154€€€€82668€€€€1€€€€€€505€€€ÌWashington€DC€€14€€€Montgomery€County€€€€€€24031€€€757027€€€757027€€€€1€€€€€€512€€€ÌWashington€DC€€14€€€Prince€George's€County€24033€€€729268€€€729268€€€€1€€€€€€506€€€ÌWashington€DC€€14€€€Arlington€County€€€€€€€51013€€€170936€€€170936€€€€0€€€€€€491€€€ÌWashington€DC€€14€€€Fairfax€County€€€€€€€€€51059€€€818584€€€818584€€€€0€€€€€€437€ÌWashington€DC€€14€€€Ô_ÔLoudounÔ_Ô€County€€€€€€€€€51107€€€€86129€€€€54937€€€€1€€€€€€505€€ÌWashington€DC€€14€€€Prince€William€County€€51153€€€215677€€€192195€€€€1€€€€€€505ÌÔ#†Xøû XœÚ#Ôԇ XXøûÔÌÌÔ#†Xøû XÂÂd#ÔÔ‡ô:{õ XXøûÔÐ  ¸  ÐÔ#†ôL‚õõô:{I®#ÔÔ#†X3XõôL‚¨#ÔÓ  Óò òCHAPTER€€€2Ð  ÐÌUNCERTAINTY€ANALYSISÌó óÓ"ÓÓ€ÓÌò òIntroductionó óÐ > & ÐÌThe€fundamental€notion€of€uncertainty€that€will€be€discussed€in€this€chapter€is€that€the€true€valueÏof€a€quantity€in€a€process€is€not€known€with€exactitude€and€can€only€approximated€throughÏestimation.€€The€quantity€of€interest€€for€which€this€uncertainty€analysis€applies€is€the€annualÏmean€exposure€of€a€demographic€group€to€carbon€monoxide.€€€The€estimate€of€the€annual€meanÏexposure€was€calculated€using€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€model.€€€There€are€no€direct€measurements€ofÏannual€mean€exposure€to€carbon€monoxide€and€thus€it€is€not€possible€to€make€direct€comparisonsÏbetween€measurements€of€annual€mean€exposure€and€estimates€derived€from€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3.€€ÏThus,€a€statement€of€the€sort€ð ðthe€estimate€of€annual€mean€exposure€from€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€isÏwithin€x%€of€measured€valuesðð€cannot€be€made€and€statistical€quantities€such€as€bias€andÏdistributional€properties€of€annual€mean€exposure€to€carbon€monoxide€cannot€be€fully€evaluated.ÌÌThere€are€two€types€of€€analyses€that€will€be€carried€out€in€regard€to€the€uncertainty€in€exposureÏestimates€to€carbon€monoxide€as€carried€out€using€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3.€€€The€first€analysis€will€discussÏa€comparison€of€the€models€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€and€Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€as€carried€out€in€a€report€byÏInternational€Technologies€Corporation€(IT,€1996).€€€Also,€a€technical€paper€that€compares€shortÏterm€personal€exposure€monitor€estimates€of€exposure€to€carbon€monoxide€to€Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€(Law,Ïòòet€al.óó,€1997)€will€be€discussed.€€€The€second€analysis€examines€€the€components€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3Ð "# ) Ðand€judges€whether€or€not€a€component€is€representative€in€a€quantitative€sense€of€selected€partsÏof€the€measurement€process.€€€The€components€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€can€be€divided€between€thoseÏthat€are€derived€from€empirical€measurements€and€those€that€are€due€to€modeling€assumptions€ofÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3.€€€The€organization€of€the€following€material€is€to€identify€the€components€of€theÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€estimates€and€discuss€uncertainty€due€to€the€empirical€measurements€and€due€toÏthe€modeling€assumptions€together€for€a€given€component.ÌThe€components€of€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€estimates€that€are€discussed€below€are€the€following:Ð Ð,¸&7 ÐÝ‚ (þÿÝÝ  Ýà  àÝ‚ (þ…ÝÚƒ Ú1Ú  Ú)à0 ` àÝ  ÝAir€quality€in€terms€of€the€ambient€air€quality€obtained,€€averaging€procedures€toÐ  Ðobtain€quarterly€average€diurnal€data€and€assignment€of€air€monitoring€districts;݃ (þ…¬ÝÛ€ یР` (#` (# ÐŒÝ  ÝÝ‚ (þÿÝÝ  Ýà  àÝ‚ (þüÝÚƒ Ú2Ú  Ú)à0 ` àÝ  ÝPopulation€data€in€terms€of€data€sources;݃ (þü#ÝÛ€ ÛŒÐÜÄ` (#` (# ÐŒÝ  Ýà  àÝ‚ (þÿÝÝ  ÝÝ‚ (þøÝÚƒ Ú3Ú  Ú)à0 ` àÝ  ÝTemperature€data€in€terms€of€data€sources.݃ (þøÝÛ€ ÛŒÐ> &` (#` (# ÐŒÝ  Ýà0  àÝ‚ (þÿÝÝ  ÝÝ‚ (þéÝÚƒ Ú4Ú  Ú)à0` (#(#àÝ  ÝActivity€patterns€in€terms€of€the€activity€database€and€the€selection€of€activityÐ   ˆ Ðpatterns€to€compose€year€long€sequences€of€activity€patterns;݃ (þéÝÛ€ یР` (#` (# ÐŒÝ  ÝÝ‚ (þÿÝÝ  Ýà  àÝ‚ (þGÝÚƒ Ú5Ú  Ú)à0 ` àÝ  ÝÔ_ÔMicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€in€terms€of€sources€of€data€and€composition€ofÐ dL  Ðspecific€factors.݃ (þGnÝÛ€ یР` (#` (# ÐŒÝ  ÝÐ  (  Ðò òComparison€of€Models€to€Sample€Dataó ó€€Ð  ÐÌQuantitative€comparisons€of€€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€annual€average€exposure€estimates€to€sample€data€isÏnot€possible€due€to€the€lack€of€sample€data€of€annual€exposure€to€carbon€monoxide.€€€SomeÏindirect€comparisons€of€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€model€estimates€to€short€term€estimates€of€exposureÏare€available€through€a€somewhat€circuitous€route.€€€Namely,€estimates€of€annual€averageÏexposure€to€CO€have€been€run€concurrently€(IT,€€1996)€using€the€two€models€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€andÏÔ_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO.€€€Comparisons€of€Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€estimates€of€1€hour€daily€maximum€and€8€hour€dailyÏmaximum€exposure€to€Ô_ÔPEMÔ_Ô€CO€measurements€have€been€published€(Law,€òòet€al.óó,€1997).€€TheÐ .  Ðresults€of€these€two€studies€are€presented€in€summary€form€below€and€inference€about€uncertaintyÏin€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€estimates€relative€to€sample€measurements€is€proposed.ÌÌThe€IT€report€lays€out€a€comparison€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€and€Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€exposure€estimates€forÏcarbon€monoxide.€€€The€estimates€are€carried€out€for€Denver,€CO€for€1988€air€quality€carbonÏmonoxide€data.€€€In€the€study,€estimates€for€11€demographic€groups€for€age€and€work€status€in€6Ïhome€districts€were€computed.€€€Additionally,€€analyses€were€done€for€the€11€demographicÏgroups€and€33€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô.€€€Ten€runs€of€both€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€and€Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€were€carriedÏout€and€the€resulting€means€and€standard€errors€over€the€ten€runs€were€compared.ÌÌThe€results€indicated€that€there€was€no€significant€bias€between€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€andÏÔ_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€estimates€for€the€exposure€means.€€€The€investigators€examined€runs€covering€six€airÏmonitoring€districts€and€eleven€demographic€groups.€€They€found€that€the€following€regressionÏequation€best€fit€the€paired€results:ÌÌà  àÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€mean€=€0.365€+€0.738€(Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€mean),ÌÌwith€an€Ròò2óó€value€of€0.286.€€The€ratios€of€(Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€mean)€to€(Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€mean)€values€wereÐ *ú#4 Ðalso€calculated€and€had€a€mean€value€of€1.028€and€a€median€of€1.0329.€€This€represents€a€smallÏbias,€considering€that€the€individual€results€(single€demographic€groups€and€air€districtÐ Ö,¾&8 Ðcombinations)€showed€considerable€variation€in€both€the€means€and€the€ratios.€€€For€the€standardÏerrors,€the€IT€report€found€the€relationshipÌÌà  àÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€standard€error€=€0.010€+€0.169€(Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€standard€error).ÌÌThe€indication€is€that€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€standard€error€is€less€than€the€Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€standard€error.ÌThis€is€confirmed€by€the€median€value€of€the€ratio€(Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€standard€error)/(Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/COÏstandard€error)€being€0.417,€which€is€significantly€smaller€than€one.ÌÌSimilar€results€were€found€for€comparisons€among€paired€runs€for€various€combinations€ofÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€and€demographic€groups€with€the€derived€relationships:ÌÌà  àÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€mean€=€0.471€+€0.573€(Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€mean),Ìà  àÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€standard€error€=€0.0369€+€0.0622€(Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€standard€error).ÌÌFinally,€€€the€ratio€of€the€(HAPEM„MS2€mean)/(Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€mean)€had€a€median€value€of€0.5405Ìand€the€ratio€of€the€(Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€standard€error)/(Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€standard€error)€had€a€medianÏvalue€of€0.1532.€€€ÌÌThe€results€indicate€that€when€summarized€by€district€there€is€little€bias€evident€between€the€twoÏmodels.€€However,€for€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€breakout€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€results€were€usuallyÏ(but€not€always)€lower€than€the€Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€results.€€Since€the€overall€average€across€districtsÏshould€equal€the€overall€average€across€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô,€this€result€seems€a€little€strange€atÏfirst.€€The€explanation€is€that€the€averages€must€be€weighted€according€to€the€probability€ofÏoccurrence€of€each€of€the€combinations.€€In€practice,€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€tended€to€underestimateÏexposure€relative€to€Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€in€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€that€are€infrequently€visited,€so€that€aÏstraight€(Ô_ÔunweightedÔ_Ô)€mean€across€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€shows€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€to€Ô_ÔunderpredictÔ_ÔÏexposure,€whereas€a€weighted€(by€duration)€mean€shows€little€difference€between€the€models.ÌBy€comparison,€the€standard€error€for€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€estimates€is€generally€much€less€than€forÐ Ð,¸&8 Ðthe€Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€estimates€for€both€of€the€above€sets€of€runs.€€This€would€generally€be€expectedÏsince€Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€uses€distributions€for€several€of€the€factors€affecting€exposure€whereasÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€uses€point€estimates.€€The€only€distribution€modeled€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€is€theÏduration€due€to€the€stochastic€sampling€of€activity€patterns.€€The€general€use€of€point€estimatesÏwill€result€in€less€variability€than€the€use€of€distributions.€ÌÌThe€second€study€by€Law,€òòet€al.óó€(1997)€compared€daily€maximum€1„hour€and€8„hour€averageÐ dL  Ðcarbon€monoxide€exposure€estimates€between€personal€environmental€monitor€(Ô_ÔPEMÔ_Ô€)€resultsÏand€Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€exposure€estimates.€€€The€Ô_ÔPEMÔ_Ô€data€was€collected€during€the€winter€of€1982„¼1983€in€Denver,€CO.€€€The€authors€state€in€the€Summary€and€Conclusions€section€thatÏðð....Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€over„predicts€the€Ô_ÔCFDÔ_Ô€of€population€exposure€at€low€exposures€and€under„¼predicts€the€Ô_ÔCFDÔ_Ô€at€high€exposuresðð.€€€The€analysis€was€limited€to€four€demographic€groups.€€ÏFurthermore,€€their€Table€2€shows€that€at€the€median€the€simulated€values€are€greater€than€theÏobserved€values€in€two€of€four€cases.€€€Their€graphs€(shown€as€Figure€A€on€the€next€page)€showÏthat€the€measured€and€modeled€Cumulative€Probability€plots€cross€each€other€in€all€four€cases,Ïwith€small€differences€near€the€medians.€€From€this,€€it€can€be€inferred€that€the€estimates€of€theÏmean€of€the€exposure€are€subject€to€little€bias,€but€that€the€dispersion€of€the€simulated€values€isÏless€than€the€mean€of€the€observed€values.€ÌÌCombining€both€of€the€above€analyses,€the€conclusion€would€be€that€there€is€no€evidence€for€aÏsystematic€bias€in€the€means€for€either€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS2€or€Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€models.€€However,€theÏÔ_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO€model€underestimates€the€true€variance€of€exposure€in€the€population,€and€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„¼MS2€provides€even€lower€variance€estimates€than€Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO.€€Thus,€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€varianceÏestimates€do€not€adequately€represent€the€variance€in€the€population.€€This€was€expected,€as€it€hasÏbeen€argued€elsewhere€that€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€attempts€to€model€the€average€for€a€whole€demographicÏgroup,€not€the€individuals€who€may€be€at€the€extremes€of€the€group.Ð  ª(’"2 ÐÌò òÓ  ÓFigure€A€„€not€available€in€electronic€copyÐ zb ÐÓX6Óó óÐ  ÜÄ Ðò ò€Air€Qualityó óÐ  ÐÌThe€ambient€monitored€CO€data€was€obtained€from€the€U.S.€EPA€AIRS€database.€€€The€data€inÏAIRS€is€not€meant€to€represent€results€from€a€designed€air€monitoring€network.€€€Instead€state€andÏlocal€agencies€contribute€data€obtained€from€local€continuous€CO€monitors.€€€The€maps€in€theÏappendix€B€show€the€geographical€locations€of€the€monitors€used€in€the€HAPEM„MS3€estimatesÏof€CO€air€quality.€€€The€coverage€of€the€HAPEM„MS3€modeling€area€(within€50€km)€of€theÏdefined€city€center)€in€highly€variable€from€city€to€city.€€€For€example,€€€in€Baltimore€€the€COÏambient€air€monitors€are€all€clustered€in€a€small€area.€€€On€the€other€hand,€€€the€€CO€ambient€airÏmonitors€in€Los€Angeles€are€fairly€evenly€distributed€over€the€modeling€area.€€€The€spatialÏdistribution€of€monitors€in€Los€Angeles€should€result€in€a€more€representative€CO€air€qualityÏestimate€for€the€city€as€a€whole€than€is€the€case€in€Baltimore.€€€In€either€case,€€€uncertainty€inÏambient€air€levels€of€CO€in€unmonitored€locations€has€not€been€evaluated€for€the€HAPEM„MS3Ïestimates.€€ÌÌThe€treatment€of€the€ambient€monitored€CO€data€by€HAPEM„MS3€leads€to€several€sources€ofÏuncertainty€for€the€air€quality€estimates€used€in€HAPEM„MS3.€€€The€€missing€values€in€ambientÏmonitored€CO€data€are€first€estimated€€via€Fourier€analysis€and€then€all€hourly€average€CO€valuesÏ(monitored€and€estimated)€are€used€to€obtain€quarterly€average€diurnal€concentrations.€€€The€dataÏfrom€each€monitor€is€arbitrarily€assigned€an€influence€in€a€20€km€diameter€circle€centered€on€theÏmonitor€location.€€Areas€outside€the€€influence€of€any€ambient€monitor€(air€district€19)€areÏassigned€a€CO€concentration€that€is€the€average€of€all€other€monitors€within€the€modeling€area.€ÏSome€sources€of€uncertainty€that€arise€from€these€procedures€are€the€following:ÌØ€ ØÝ‚ (þÿÝÝ  Ýà0  àÝ‚ (þ>ÝÚƒ Ú1Ú  Ú)à0` (#(#àÝ  ÝCO€concentrations€cannot€be€assigned€in€a€spatially€continuous€way€to€allÐ æ%Î. Ðgeographic€areas.€€The€most€profound€impact€of€this€is€that€rather€extensiveÏgeographical€areas€can€be€assigned€to€air€district€19€(the€average€of€all€ambientÏmonitors).€€€The€geometry€and€population€of€air€district€19€is€highly€variable€fromÏcity€to€city.€€In€Baltimore,€€€for€example,€€€air€district€19€completely€surroundsÏBaltimore€City.€€€In€Los€Angeles,€€€air€district€19€is€much€less€extensive€than€inÐ Ð,¸&8 ÐBaltimore€but€pockets€of€air€district€19€are€found€between€the€other€air€districts.€ÏThe€exposures€of€people€in€air€district€19€are€inherently€uncertain.€Ýƒ (þ>7>ÝÛ€ یР` (#` (# ÐŒÝ  ÝÝ‚ (þÿÝÝ  Ýà0  àÝ‚ (þ|AÝÚƒ Ú2Ú  Ú)à0` (#(#àÝ  ÝAnother€spatial€effect€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€is€that€the€CO€concentration€effectively€has€aÐ ÜÄ Ðdiscontinuity€at€each€monitor€district€boundary:€people€living€just€on€one€side€ofÏthe€boundary€may€have€concentrations€different€by€a€factor€of€two€or€more€fromÏpeople€next€door€on€the€other€side€of€the€district€boundary.€€€If€it€is€assumed€thatÏthe€true€concentration€does€not€have€this€discontinuity,€then€one€or€both€of€theÏestimates€on€either€side€of€the€boundary€must€be€incorrect,€and€the€size€of€theÏdiscontinuity€provides€a€measure€of€this€effect.݃ (þ|A£AÝÛ€ یР` (#` (# ÐŒÝ  ÝÝ‚ (þÿÝÝ  Ýà  àÝ‚ (þŽDÝÚƒ Ú3Ú  Ú)à0 ` àÝ  ÝThe€current€version€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€does€not€allow€for€the€discrimination€of€weekdayÐ Šr  Ðand€weekend€days€for€air€quality.€€€Generally€for€CO,€€€the€highest€concentrationsÏare€reported€on€weekdays€due€to€mobile€source€contributions€during€rush€hours,Ïwhich€are€absent€on€weekends.€€€If€the€weekend/weekday€distinction€were€made€inÏthe€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€air€quality€programs,€then€it€would€result€in€slightly€higher€exposureÏestimates€overall€(because€more€people€are€out€driving€and€getting€exposed€whenÏthe€air€quality€is€bad;€and€of€course€this€is€because€the€air€quality€is€bad€wheneverÏmore€driving€occurs.).€€Ýƒ (þŽDµDÝÛ€ یР` (#` (# ÐŒÝ  ÝÌ.Ìò òPopulationó óÐ ^ F& ÐÌThe€population€data€used€for€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€estimates€was€obtained€from€the€1990€U.S.ÏPopulation€Census.€€€The€census€tract€level€data€is€used€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€to€obtain€populationÏestimates€for€a€specified€demographic€group.€€€There€is€not€any€uncertainty€introduced€in€the€wayÏthe€population€estimates€are€incorporated€in€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€estimates€for€the€non„commutingÏdemographic€groups.€€For€the€commuters,€the€location€of€the€workplaces€is€not€known€a€priori,Ïand€is€assigned€using€an€iterative€algorithm€in€the€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô€program.€€€In€some€cases,€this€is€likelyÏto€Ô_ÔmisallocateÔ_Ô€workers.€€For€example,€a€large€number€of€workers€in€a€non„central€€area€where€fewÏpeople€live€(such€as€a€industrial€park)€might€be€assigned€to€tracts€closer€to€the€central€city€by€theÐ Ð,¸&8 Ðcommuting€algorithm.€€The€size€of€this€potential€effect€has€not€been€estimated.€€However,Ïrelatively€few€(only€five€out€of€23)€of€the€demographic€groups€commute,€and€even€in€those€casesÏthe€population€data€do€not€affect€the€exposure€of€any€one€of€the€particular€cohorts.€€TheÏpopulation€data€is€used€only€to€obtain€population€weighted€averages€across€the€cohorts€inÏexposure€estimates.Ìò òÌTemperatureó óÐ dL  ÐÌThe€daily€maximum€temperature€is€used€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€only€to€determine€the€number€of€warmÏand€cool€days,€used€for€the€selection€of€daily€activity€patterns€to€compose€the€annual€activityÏpatterns.€€Aside€from€making€this€determination€in€a€different€way€based€on€temperature€in€theÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€estimate,€€€there€is€no€obvious€effect€on€uncertainty€in€annual€average€COÏexposure€due€to€the€way€temperature€data€is€treated€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3.Ìò òÌÌActivity€Patternsó óÐ Ö¾ ÐÌThe€variance€that€has€been€computed€for€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€estimates€of€annual€average€COÏexposure€arises€entirely€from€variation€in€duration€in€the€daily€activity€patterns€as€represented€inÏthe€activity€data€base.€€€In€addition€to€this€rather€small€variance€due€to€variation€in€time„activityÏduration,€€€there€are€several€other€factors€that€affect€uncertainty€due€to€selection€of€daily€activityÏpatterns€and€construction€of€annual€activity€patterns.€€€These€factors€include€the€following:ÌØ€ ØÝ‚ (þÿÝÝ  Ýà  àÝ‚ (þÆQÝÚƒ Ú1Ú  Ú)à0 ` àÝ  ÝThe€activity€database€is€constructed€from€a€relatively€small€number€of€studies€andÐ „$l, Ðthe€studies€were€not€of€a€consistent€quality;݃ (þÆQíQÝÛ€ یР` (#` (# ÐŒÝ  ÝÝ‚ (þÿÝÝ  Ýà  àÝ‚ (þSÝÚƒ Ú2Ú  Ú)à0 ` àÝ  ÝThe€construction€of€annual€activity€patterns€is€carried€out€in€a€manner€that€reducesÐ H'0!0 Ðoverall€variability€in€annual€average€CO€exposure.݃ (þS@SÝÛ€ یР` (#` (# ÐŒÝ  ÝOne€of€the€most€obvious€sources€of€uncertainty€arises€from€the€construction€of€the€activityÏdatabase€itself.€€€The€database€was€constructed€from€activity€diaries€obtained€in€Denver,€CO,ÏWashington,€D.C.€€and€Cincinnati,€OH€in€1982€„€1985.€€€The€sampling€in€Denver€andÐ Ð,¸&8 ÐWashington€was€carried€out€only€in€one€winter€(November„February)€and€the€CincinnatiÏsampling€was€done€in€March€and€August€of€another€year.€€€This€can€lead€to€several€major€sourcesÏof€uncertainty€in€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€estimates.€€€€First,€€Denver,€Washington€and€Cincinnati€are€inÏclimatically€similar€areas.€€€Cities€with€different€climate€patterns€such€as€Los€Angeles€andÏHouston€may€not€be€well€represented€by€the€activity€patterns€in€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€activityÏdatabase.€€€The€duration€of€activity€in€particular€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€is€likely€to€differ€at€leastÏseasonally€between€warm€climate€cities€and€cold€climate€cities.€€€In€other€words,€€the€variation€inÏduration€activity€is€likely€to€be€small€in€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€activity€database€relative€to€variationÏin€duration€activity€across€all€cities€in€the€continental€United€States.€€Second,€seasonal€variabilityÏin€activity€is€not€well€represented€in€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€database.€€€The€only€summer€season€dataÏin€the€database€are€obtained€from€the€Cincinnati€activity€diaries.€€€The€summer€activities€in€the€14Ïcities€considered€in€this€report€are€represented€only€by€a€survey€of€activities€in€Cincinnati€in€oneÏmonth€of€one€summer€(August€1985).€€Third,€there€may€be€a€slow€but€significant€change€inÏactivities€over€time.€€For€example,€it€is€known€that€the€number€of€vehicle„miles€traveled€perÏperson€is€steadily€increasing.€€This€means€that€after€several€years€the€activity€patterns€in€the€realÏpopulation€may€differ€substantially€from€those€found€in€the€activity€database.€€All€these€points€Ïcould€be€addressed€by€examining€the€impact€of€using€other,€more€recent€activity€studies€in€placeÏof€the€existing€activity€database.€€This€would€require€a€substantial€effort€that€is€beyond€the€scopeÏof€the€current€work.€€Without€such€comparisons€between€activity€duration€estimates,€€Ïuncertainties€in€both€the€level€and€variation€of€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€estimates€of€annual€averageÏexposure€cannot€be€meaningfully€addressed.ÌÌThe€second€major€point€is€that€the€way€in€which€daily€activity€duration€sequences€are€selected€toÏrepresent€annual€activity€duration€sequences€results€in€a€substantial€reduction€in€variance€for€theÏannual€exposures.€€€Depending€on€the€state€(fixed€by€weekend\weekday€day,€summer\winterÏseason,€high\low€daily€maximum€temperature)€of€a€particular€day€of€the€year,€€€a€daily€activityÏduration€sequence€is€selected€uniformly€from€all€daily€activity€sequences€in€the€database€for€thatÏstate€and€demographic€group.€€A€particular€year€long€activity€duration€sequence€does€not€inÏgeneral€represent€the€activity€duration€sequence€of€any€individual€in€the€population€of€interest.€€InÐ Ð,¸&8 Ðfact,€€€if€a€year€long€activity€duration€sequence€is€interpreted€as€representing€the€activity€durationÏsequence€of€a€particular€individual€in€the€population,€€this€may€not€conform€to€a€sequence€thatÏcan€ever€be€realized.€€This€is€not€a€problem€when€it€comes€to€estimating€the€mean€exposure,€sinceÏthe€independent€random€selection€of€patterns€does€not€bias€the€mean,€but€in€general€it€will€resultÏin€a€great€decrease€in€the€variance€of€the€exposure.€€A€sample€calculation€is€given€below€toÏexamine€the€effect€of€altering€this€method€of€constructing€year„long€activity€patterns.ÌÌAnother€problem€regarding€the€activity€patterns€is€that€the€number€of€daily€activity€durationÏsequences€for€a€given€demographic€group€and€state€may€be€very€small.€€€Table€5€shows€theÏcounts€of€the€number€of€daily€activity€patterns€by€demographic€group€and€state.€€€Note€that€someÏdemographic€groups€such€as€ððCaucasiansðð€have€at€least€125€daily€activity€duration€sequences€forÏeach€of€€the€eight€states.€€In€contrast€to€this,€€the€ððOutdoor€workersðð€demographic€group€isÏrepresented€by€only€one€sequence€for€state€six.€€€The€effect€of€having€a€small€number€of€durationÏactivity€sequences€to€select€from€is€estimates€of€duration€are€likely€to€be€biased€relative€toÏpopulation€durations,€as€the€mean€for€a€small€handful€of€individuals€may€not€necessarily€be€closeÏto€the€mean€for€the€population.€€In€addition€the€€variability€in€duration€becomes€more€difficult€toÏestimate.€€In€the€extreme€case€of€just€one€activity€pattern,€the€model€exhibits€no€variance€at€all.ÌÌThe€way€in€which€€daily€activity€patterns€are€selected€can€affect€the€variance€of€the€annualÏaverage€exposure.€€€To€illustrate€this,€suppose€that€instead€of€selecting€a€new€random€patternÏevery€day,€a€new€pattern€is€selected€only€the€first€time€a€particular€combination€of€quarter€andÏstate€actually€occurs.€€€€Thereafter€the€particular€selected€daily€activity€duration€sequence€is€usedÏeach€time€the€same€combination€is€encountered.€€€This€introduces€a€correlation€in€the€year€long€Ïactivity€duration€sequence.€€€It€can€be€shown€that€the€annual€average€exposure€is€unaffected€byÏusing€this€new€sampling€scheme.€€That€is,€€the€annual€average€exposure€is€identical€as€comparedÏto€the€actual€sampling€scheme€currently€used€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô.€€€However,€The€variance€in€exposure€isÏgreatly€increased.€€The€results€for€this€alternative€sampling€scheme€are€seen€in€Table€6,€in€whichÏthe€column€ððAnnualðð€contains€the€annual€average€exposure,€and€the€standard€deviations€are€givenÏin€the€ððIndependentðð€and€ððCorrelatedðð€columns.€€This€table€presents€results€for€Denver,€and€showsÐ Ð,¸&8 Ðthat€the€standard€deviation€for€the€estimated€annual€average€exposure€for€the€correlated€sequenceÏis€about€five€times€€that€of€the€uncorrelated€sequence.€€€However,€comparisons€of€the€Ô_ÔfractilesÔ_ÔÏ(Table€7)€and€percentiles€€(Table€8)€show€only€modest€changes€when€comparing€the€statistics€forÏthese€sampling€schemes.€€This€is€because€the€variance€between€individuals€in€the€same€air€districtÏeven€with€the€new€sampling€scheme€is€still€generally€less€than€the€variation€between€different€airÏdistricts.€€The€conclusion€is€that€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€model€underestimates€variance,€and€thisÏvariance€estimate€can€be€sensitive€to€the€particular€algorithms€used€internally€in€the€model.€ÏHowever,€the€effect€on€the€mean€exposure€(if€any)€is€€rather€small.ÌÌÌò òÔ_ÔMicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€Factorsó óÐ ìÔ  ÐÌIn€general,€the€discussion€of€uncertainty€in€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€parallels€theÏdiscussion€of€activity€patterns€above.€€€The€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€were€derived€from€dataÏcollected€in€the€Washington€and€Denver€studies.€€€Thus,€€the€comments€on€seasonal€and€annualÏvariation€as€in€the€previous€comments€on€activity€patterns€apply€here€also.€€€Namely,€€the€DenverÏand€Washington€studies€were€undertaken€only€in€the€winter€over€a€four€month€period.€€€TheÏapplicability€of€the€factors€to€cities€with€a€different€climate€type€also€leads€to€uncertainty€of€theÏtrue€range€of€values€(variability)€that€the€factors€can€assume.€€€Also,€the€seasonal€variation€of€theÏfactors€is€not€considered€(although€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€allows€it),€since€there€is€no€data€available€toÏderive€factors€for€other€seasons.€€The€factors€were€derived€for€the€CO€environment€in€the€earlyÏ1980's€and€many€changes€in€the€manner€in€which€vehicles€and€buildings€are€constructed€haveÏtaken€place€since€the€early€1980's.€€€Thus,€three€potential€sources€of€biases€may€be€present€in€theÏfactors:€geographical,€seasonal,€and€secular€(aperiodic€changes€over€time).ÌÌSeparate€estimates€of€exposure€to€carbon€monoxide€within€certain€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€can€beÏmisleading€because€of€€uncertainties€in€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€and€the€durations€asÏderived€from€time„activity€patterns.€€Any€annual€exposure€estimate€for€a€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_ÔÏwhere€the€total€accumulated€duration€is€short€is€likely€to€be€uncertain€due€to€two€causes.€€First,Ð Ð,¸&8 Ðthe€amount€of€data€used€to€derive€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€is€very€limited,€and€so€theÏregression€equation€used€to€derive€the€factors€may€be€subject€to€substantial€error€(especially€forÏweakly€correlated€data).€€€Second,€the€estimate€of€exposure€depends€on€the€duration€as€obtainedÏfrom€diaries.€€Any€short€duration€events€(i.e.€less€than€ten€minutes)€tend€to€be€Ô_ÔunderreportedÔ_Ô€inÏdiaries.€€Also,€for€rare€events€the€small€sample€size€for€certain€demographic€groups€means€thatÏthere€are€large€relative€errors€in€both€the€mean€and€the€variance€of€duration€in€the€Ô_ÔactivtityÔ_ÔÏdatabase.€€€ÌÌÌò òSummaryó óÐ Šr  ÐÌOverall,€most€of€the€discussion€on€the€sources€of€uncertainty€in€the€estimates€of€annual€averageÏexposure€is€qualitative€in€nature.€€This€is€for€two€reasons:€a)€there€are€no€direct€measurements€ofÏannual€CO€exposure€to€compare€the€model€results€with,€and€b)€there€are€an€enormous€number€ofÏcombinations€of€ways€to€use€alternate€modeling€assumptions€and€databases,€and€only€a€few€ofÏthese€have€been€examined€in€detail.€€The€cited€papers€used€in€comparisons€between€models€andÏcomparison€with€personal€monitoring€estimates€suggest€that€there€is€no€evident€bias€in€the€mean€ÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€exposures,€but€that€the€variances€(or€standard€deviations)€are€substantiallyÏunderestimated€compared€to€the€true€variability€among€individuals.€€The€indirect€nature€of€theÏcomparison€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€to€another€model€(rather€than€to€observed€data)€makes€it€difficult€toÏassign€a€quantitative€confidence€limit€to€the€exposure€estimates.€€€The€standard€errors€that€haveÏbeen€calculated€for€the€many€tables€in€the€Appendices€to€this€report€are€very€small€and€representÏonly€the€variation€arising€from€the€method€of€selecting€activity€patterns.€€The€calculation€basedÏon€an€alternative€selection€scheme€presented€above€illustrates€that€the€model€can€easily€produceÏlarger€variances€in€exposure€with€only€modest€changes€in€the€model€assumptions.€€€TheÏdiscussion€on€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€points€out€that€the€exposures€(and€theÏconcentrations€and€durations)€in€those€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€with€high€accumulated€exposure€tendÏto€have€much€smaller€relative€errors€than€those€with€low€accumulated€exposures.€ÌÐ Ð,¸&8 Їò òReferencesÐ  ÐÌó óLaw€€Ô_ÔP.L.Ô_Ô,€Ô_ÔP.J.Ô_Ô€Ô_ÔLioyÔ_Ô,€M.P.€Ô_ÔZelenkaÔ_Ô,€A.H.€Huber,€Ô_ÔT.R.McCurdyÔ_Ô,€(1997),€ð ðEvaluation€of€aÐ ÜÄ Ðprobabilistic€exposure€model€applied€to€carbon€monoxide€(Ô_ÔpNEMÔ_Ô/CO)€using€Denver€personalÏexposure€monitoring€dataðð,€Journal€of€the€Air€&€Waste€Management€Association€ò ò47ó ó:491„500.€€€Ð   ˆ ÐÌIT€(International€Technology)€Corporation,€(1996),€ð ðDevelopmental€research€for€the€hazardousÏair€pollutant€exposure€model€(Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô)€as€applied€to€mobile€source€pollutantsðð,€IT€ProjectÏnumber€453212„3,€Report€to€the€U.S.€Environmental€Protection€Agency.€Ð  .  Ðà  àà ` àà ¸ àà  àò òà h àTABLE€€5€ó óÐ  ÐÌÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô-MS3€Counts€of€Activity€Patterns€by€Activity€Pattern€State€ÌÔ‡ôL‚õXX3ÔState€1€=€€Cool€Non„summer€Weekdayà0 h àà0Àh(#h(#àState€5€€=€€Cool€Summer€WeekdayÐ> &À(#À(# ÐState€2€=€€Cool€Non„summer€Weekendà0 h àà0Àh(#h(#àState€6€€=€€Cool€Summer€WeekendÐg OÀ(#À(# ÐState€3€=€€Warm€Non„summer€Weekdayà0 h àà0Àh(#h(#àState€7€€=€€Warm€Summer€Weekdayà0xÀ(#À(#àÐ x x(#x(# ÐState€4€=€Warm€Non„summer€Weekend€€à0 h àà0Àh(#h(#àState€8€€=€€Warm€Summer€WeekendÔ#†X3XõôL‚ý‚#ÔÔ‡Â(²ÂXX3Ôй ¡ À(#À(# ÐÔ‡ÂÂÂÂ(²ÔÌ€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€StateÌDemographic€Group€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€1€€€€€2€€€€€3€€€€€4€€€€€5€€€€€6€€€€€7€€€€€8€€€AllÌÌCaucasians€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€316€€€154€€€496€€€162€€€610€€€125€€€209€€€212€€2284ÌAfrican€Americans€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€14€€€€€8€€€€25€€€€10€€€€41€€€€€9€€€€15€€€€11€€€133ÌHispanics€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€16€€€€11€€€€35€€€€11€€€€44€€€€10€€€€17€€€€11€€€155ÌHousehold€income€lt€$10K€€€€€€€€€€€19€€€€€8€€€€43€€€€€6€€€€17€€€€€3€€€€15€€€€€9€€€120ÌHousehold€income€$10K-$25K€€€€€€€€€59€€€€28€€€€69€€€€25€€€103€€€€21€€€€25€€€€37€€€367ÌHousehold€income€$25K-$50K€€€€€€€€126€€€€69€€€228€€€€86€€€241€€€€47€€€€90€€€€90€€€977ÌHousehold€income€$50K-$75K€€€€€€€€€73€€€€33€€€107€€€€30€€€133€€€€20€€€€41€€€€40€€€477ÌHousehold€income€gt€$75K€€€€€€€€€€€12€€€€€2€€€€10€€€€€6€€€€48€€€€16€€€€20€€€€13€€€127ÌChildren,€0€to€17€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€130€€€€54€€€198€€€€68€€€225€€€€29€€€€80€€€€80€€€864ÌÔ_ÔNonworkingÔ_Ô€men,€18€to€44€€€€€€€€€€€13€€€€13€€€€22€€€€€5€€€€20€€€€€9€€€€€2€€€€€4€€€€88ÌWorking€men,€18€to€44€€€€€€€€€€€€€207€€€€72€€€135€€€€32€€€117€€€€29€€€€20€€€€33€€€645ÌÔ_ÔNonworkingÔ_Ô€women,€18€to€44€€€€€€€€€76€€€€35€€€€63€€€€26€€€€52€€€€12€€€€32€€€€28€€€324ÌWorking€women,€18€to€44€€€€€€€€€€€219€€€€98€€€143€€€€47€€€€80€€€€15€€€€32€€€€34€€€668ÌÔ_ÔNonworkingÔ_Ô€men,€45€to€64€€€€€€€€€€€23€€€€€6€€€€€7€€€€€4€€€€€6€€€€€1€€€€€4€€€€€2€€€€53ÌWorking€men,€45€to€64€€€€€€€€€€€€€€62€€€€25€€€€62€€€€16€€€€36€€€€13€€€€€6€€€€12€€€232ÌÔ_ÔNonworkingÔ_Ô€women,€45€to€64€€€€€€€€€67€€€€32€€€€44€€€€15€€€€41€€€€11€€€€19€€€€€9€€€238ÌWorking€women,€45€to€64€€€€€€€€€€€€77€€€€30€€€€57€€€€17€€€€33€€€€€5€€€€17€€€€€8€€€244ÌMen,€65+€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€21€€€€€7€€€€21€€€€€3€€€€20€€€€€4€€€€€7€€€€€7€€€€90ÌWomen,€65+€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€35€€€€€9€€€€22€€€€€9€€€€26€€€€€8€€€€€7€€€€€6€€€122ÌOutdoor€workers€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€11€€€€€5€€€€19€€€€€4€€€€€8€€€€€1€€€€€2€€€€€2€€€€52ÌOutdoor€children€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€43€€€€14€€€€68€€€€25€€€112€€€€18€€€€42€€€€46€€€368ÌHeart€and€respiratory€€€€€€€€€€€€€€33€€€€14€€€€51€€€€€5€€€€42€€€€10€€€€23€€€€12€€€190ÌAll€persons€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€930€€€381€€€774€€€242€€€656€€€136€€€226€€€223€€3568ÌÔ#†Xøû XÂÂ5…#ÔÐ  2("D ÐѰÑѰ„Ñò òÔ#†X3X XXøûs…#ÔÓ  ÓTABLE€6Ô‡Xøû XXX3Ôó óÔ‡ô:{õ XXøûÔÐ ° ÐÓÞŽÓÓ€ÓÌÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô-MS3€Average€Annual€ExposureÔ#†Xøû Xõô:{#ÔÔ‡ô:{õ XXøûÔÐ Ä ÐStandard€Deviations€Ô#†Xøû Xõô:{Î#ÔÔ‡ô:{õ XXøûÔ(in€Ô_ÔððgÔ_Ô/Ô_Ômòò3Ô_Ôóó)Ô#†Xøû Xõô:{9#ÔÔ‡ô:{õ XXøûÔ€for€Independent€and€Correlated€ActivityÐ vÆ ÐSequencesÌRatio€=€Correlated/IndependentÌDenver:€Air€District=CitywideÌÔ#†Xøû Xõô:{Î#ÔÔ‡ô:{õ XXøûÔò òÌÌó óÔ#†Xøû Xõô:{”‘#Ôԇ XXøûÔÌDemographic€Group€€€€€€€€€€€€Population€€€Annual€€€Independent€€Correlated€€€RatioÌ€€à  àà ` àà ¸ àà  àà h àà À à€€€Mean€€€€Std.€Dev.€€€€Std.€Dev.Ð ö F  Ðò òÌó óCaucasians€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€1529709€€€€561€€€€€€€1.53€€€€€€€€7.76€€€€€€€€5.08Ð @  ÐAfrican€Ô_ÔamericansÔ_Ô€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€96042€€€€692€€€€€€€3.37€€€€€€€19.34€€€€€€€€5.74ÌHispanics€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€225415€€€€586€€€€€€€2.02€€€€€€€11.57€€€€€€€€5.73ÌHousehold€income€lt€$10K€€€€€€€€€253323€€€€572€€€€€€€1.20€€€€€€€€6.71€€€€€€€€5.59ÌHousehold€income€$10K-$25K€€€€€€€517117€€€€582€€€€€€€1.47€€€€€€€€7.19€€€€€€€€4.91ÌHousehold€income€$25K-$50K€€€€€€€607809€€€€566€€€€€€€1.78€€€€€€€€9.14€€€€€€€€5.14ÌHousehold€income€$50K-$75K€€€€€€€238244€€€€555€€€€€€€1.44€€€€€€€€7.34€€€€€€€€5.11ÌHousehold€income€gt€$75K€€€€€€€€€135089€€€€530€€€€€€€1.42€€€€€€€€7.84€€€€€€€€5.54ÌChildren,€0€to€17€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€449919€€€€564€€€€€€€1.49€€€€€€€€7.34€€€€€€€€4.92ÌÔ_ÔNonworkingÔ_Ô€men,€18€to€44€€€€€€€€€€97037€€€€603€€€€€€€1.41€€€€€€€€7.39€€€€€€€€5.23ÌWorking€men,€18€to€44€€€€€€€€€€€€318840€€€€604€€€€€€€0.99€€€€€€€€5.19€€€€€€€€5.24ÌÔ_ÔNonworkingÔ_Ô€women,€18€to€44€€€€€€€154786€€€€556€€€€€€€1.31€€€€€€€€6.47€€€€€€€€4.93ÌWorking€women,€18€to€44€€€€€€€€€€269914€€€€576€€€€€€€0.71€€€€€€€€3.63€€€€€€€€5.09ÌÔ_ÔNonworkingÔ_Ô€men,€45€to€64€€€€€€€€€€37533€€€€557€€€€€€€1.01€€€€€€€€4.47€€€€€€€€4.41ÌWorking€men,€45€to€64€€€€€€€€€€€€119334€€€€605€€€€€€€0.87€€€€€€€€4.76€€€€€€€€5.46ÌÔ_ÔNonworkingÔ_Ô€women,€45€to€64€€€€€€€€62442€€€€537€€€€€€€1.00€€€€€€€€5.18€€€€€€€€5.17ÌWorking€women,€45€to€64€€€€€€€€€€100773€€€€564€€€€€€€0.77€€€€€€€€3.97€€€€€€€€5.16ÌMen,€65+€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€79550€€€€590€€€€€€€1.37€€€€€€€€7.42€€€€€€€€5.40ÌWomen,€65+€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€85930€€€€561€€€€€€€1.23€€€€€€€€6.80€€€€€€€€5.51ÌOutdoor€workers€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€49647€€€€700€€€€€€€0.96€€€€€€€€4.97€€€€€€€€5.15ÌOutdoor€children€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€127781€€€€588€€€€€€€1.18€€€€€€€€6.04€€€€€€€€5.13ÌHeart€and€respiratory€€€€€€€€€€€€236093€€€€544€€€€€€€1.13€€€€€€€€5.62€€€€€€€€4.97ÌAll€persons€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€1776026€€€€575€€€€€€€1.60€€€€€€€€8.35€€€€€€€€5.20Ìò òÐ   ð% ÐÔ#†Â(²ÂÂÂñŽ#ÔÔ#†X3XÂÂ(²Þ‘#ÔÓ  ÓTABLE€€7Ð ° Ðó óÔ‡Â(²ÂXX3ÔÔ‡ÂÂÂÂ(²ÔÌÓH›ÓÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô-MS3€Percentiles€in€Micrograms€per€cubic€meter€(Ô_ÔððgÔ_Ô/Ô_Ômòò3Ô_Ôóó)Ð <Œ ÐCorrelated€and€Uncorrelated€Activity€SequencesÌDenver:€City-wide€Annual€CO€Exposure€for€1990ÌÌDemographic€Group€€€€€€€€€€€€€€25th€€€50th€€€75th€€€90th€€€95th€€€99thÌòòÌCorrelated€SequencesóóÐ ü L 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ÐCaucasians€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€6.4€€12.7€€22.0€€74.7€€85.9€€88.1€€99.6€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_ÔÌAfrican€Ô_ÔamericansÔ_Ô€€€€€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€0.7€€€1.8€€€7.5€€39.6€€42.2€€66.7€€99.3€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_ÔÌHispanics€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€1.4€€€3.6€€21.1€€64.6€€81.0€€91.8€€99.9€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_ÔÌHousehold€income€lt€$10K€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€1.8€€€9.1€€32.2€€68.8€€73.0€€94.1€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌHousehold€income€$10K-$25K€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€3.0€€€9.1€€21.4€€68.4€€80.5€€84.9€€99.9€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_ÔÌHousehold€income€$25K-$50K€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€5.7€€10.4€€19.7€€75.1€€86.2€€88.4€€99.4€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_ÔÌHousehold€income€$50K-$75K€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€9.2€€14.6€€20.0€€78.2€€88.0€€88.9€€99.6€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_ÔÌHousehold€income€gt€$75K€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€15.8€€23.8€€30.3€€79.1€€86.3€€87.5€€99.5€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_ÔÌChildren,€0€to€17€€€€€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€6.6€€10.4€€19.1€€75.1€€86.4€€88.5€€99.8€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_ÔÌÔ_ÔNonworkingÔ_Ô€men,€18€to€44€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€3.6€€13.4€€16.6€€60.3€€77.9€€79.2€€97.2€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_ÔÌWorking€men,€18€to€44€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€1.1€€12.1€€12.3€€58.2€€82.9€€86.5€€99.8€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_ÔÌÔ_ÔNonworkingÔ_Ô€women,€18€to€44€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€4.7€€12.3€€31.5€€73.7€€80.8€€89.6€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌWorking€women,€18€to€44€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€4.8€€12.0€€12.6€€73.6€€83.4€€87.4€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌÔ_ÔNonworkingÔ_Ô€men,€45€to€64€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€6.1€€10.4€€33.9€€74.8€€80.0€€89.7€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌWorking€men,€45€to€64€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€0.3€€13.1€€13.3€€50.9€€83.8€€87.2€€99.6€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_ÔÌÔ_ÔNonworkingÔ_Ô€women,€45€to€64€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€7.4€€11.6€€38.2€€78.3€€81.7€€95.3€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌWorking€women,€45€to€64€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€7.9€€12.9€€15.0€€73.4€€84.4€€89.1€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌMen,€65+€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€3.8€€€8.6€€24.8€€64.3€€76.5€€81.4€€99.9€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_ÔÌWomen,€65+€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€3.8€€€8.1€€36.1€€72.2€€75.9€€94.9€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌOutdoor€workers€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€2.1€€€7.8€€€7.9€€67.2€€84.2€€88.8€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_ÔÌOutdoor€children€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€7.0€€11.2€€11.7€€64.7€€86.0€€87.2€€97.2€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_ÔÌHeart€and€respiratory€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€5.5€€11.0€€34.3€€77.7€€81.6€€94.7€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌAll€persons€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€5.7€€11.5€€19.9€€70.7€€82.8€€85.5€€99.4€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_ÔÌòòÌUncorrelated€SequencesóóÐ 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ÐCaucasians€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€6.4€€12.7€€21.1€€74.4€€86.1€€86.5€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌAfrican€Ô_ÔamericansÔ_Ô€€€€€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€0.7€€€1.8€€€6.9€€39.8€€41.8€€56.3€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌHispanics€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€1.4€€€3.6€€20.0€€60.0€€80.7€€93.1€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌHousehold€income€lt€$10K€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€1.7€€€9.1€€31.4€€70.2€€72.6€€99.8€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌHousehold€income€$10K-$25K€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€3.0€€€9.1€€22.6€€65.4€€80.6€€84.8€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌHousehold€income€$25K-$50K€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€5.7€€10.4€€17.6€€75.6€€86.4€€86.7€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌHousehold€income€$50K-$75K€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€9.2€€14.6€€15.3€€79.7€€88.2€€88.2€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌHousehold€income€gt€$75K€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€15.8€€23.8€€25.9€€81.0€€86.5€€86.6€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌChildren,€0€to€17€€€€€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€6.6€€10.4€€18.5€€74.1€€86.5€€87.0€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌÔ_ÔNonworkingÔ_Ô€men,€18€to€44€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€3.6€€13.4€€13.4€€64.4€€78.4€€78.4€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌWorking€men,€18€to€44€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€0.0€€12.3€€12.3€€65.1€€83.4€€88.0€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌÔ_ÔNonworkingÔ_Ô€women,€18€to€44€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€4.7€€12.3€€35.3€€76.9€€80.7€€86.7€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌWorking€women,€18€to€44€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€4.9€€12.0€€12.0€€73.6€€83.4€€87.1€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌÔ_ÔNonworkingÔ_Ô€men,€45€to€64€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€6.1€€10.4€€36.3€€77.7€€80.0€€86.1€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌWorking€men,€45€to€64€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€0.0€€13.3€€13.3€€47.0€€84.7€€88.4€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌÔ_ÔNonworkingÔ_Ô€women,€45€to€64€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€7.4€€11.6€€37.1€€78.7€€81.7€€99.8€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌWorking€women,€45€to€64€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€8.0€€12.9€€12.9€€73.3€€84.4€€87.4€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌMen,€65+€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€3.8€€€8.6€€27.2€€59.4€€76.5€€78.1€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌWomen,€65+€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€3.7€€€8.1€€34.0€€72.8€€75.6€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_ÔÌOutdoor€workers€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€3.2€€€7.8€€€7.8€€70.5€€84.3€€88.9€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_ÔÌOutdoor€children€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€7.0€€11.2€€11.2€€74.9€€86.8€€87.2€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌHeart€and€respiratory€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€5.5€€11.0€€34.4€€79.0€€81.6€€99.1€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌAll€persons€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€0.0€€€0.0€€€5.7€€11.5€€17.0€€70.8€€83.0€€83.2€100.0€Ô_Ô100.0Ô_Ô€100.0ÌÌÐ  &j!; ÐÔ#†EG/-ÿB¬#ÔÔ#†X3X/EGs­#ÔÓ€Óò òÓ  ÓCHAPTER€3Ð ° ÐQUALITY€ASSURANCEÌÌÓ•ÇÓIntroductionó óÐ Ö& ÐÌIn€the€application€of€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€model€to€the€fourteen€study€areas€examined€in€this€report,€€twoÏmain€activities€were€carried€out€which€directly€involved€quality€assurance€considerations.€€TheseÏwere€1)€enhancements€to€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€model,€and€2)€obtaining€data€and€running€theÏenhanced€model€for€the€14€study€areas.€€€The€model€enhancements€did€not€change€the€modelÏassumptions€or€algorithms,€but€they€improved€model€performance€in€several€key€areas€includingÏdata€management,€speed€of€execution,€calculation€of€mean€and€variance,€the€production€of€tablesÏof€exposure€broken€down€by€county,€and€tables€broken€down€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô.€€The€€modelÏruns€included€the€San€Francisco€study€area,€which€was€run€previously€under€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€andÏserved€as€a€basis€for€comparing€the€model€output€before€and€after€the€enhancements.€€ÌÌÌò òHandling€of€Program€Codeó óÐ Ð   ÐÌThe€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€model€is€written€in€Fortran€and€runs€on€the€EPAððs€IBM€mainframe.€€ThreeÏsets€of€directories€on€the€mainframe€were€established€to€hold€program€code.€€Each€of€these€setsÏhas€three€pieces,€a€subdirectory€for€the€Fortran€source€code€(.FORT),€another€for€the€compiledÏcode€(.LOAD),€and€a€third€for€the€compilation€programs€and€the€Job€Control€Language€(JCL)Ïused€to€submit€runs€(.Ô_ÔCNTLÔ_Ô).€€The€original€code€(before€enhancements€were€added)€isÏmaintained€in€the€ððEXPO.JLCEXPO.HAPEM3ðð€directory€(with€.FORT,€.LOAD,€and€.Ô_ÔCNTLÔ_ÔÏsubdirectories).€€Modified€programs€under€development€and€testing€are€in€theÏððEXPO.HAPEM3.NEWðð€directory.€€Once€the€modified€versions€are€in€final€form€they€are€placedÏin€the€ððEXPO.HAPEM3.FINALðð€directory.€€Copies€of€the€source€code€and€the€JCL€are€alsoÏmaintained€on€local€PCs€both€for€backup€and€for€ease€of€printing.€€à È àAccess€to€the€code€(both€readÐ *V%6 Ðand€write)€on€the€IBM€is€open€to€those€individuals€who€are€part€of€the€EXPO€group.€€€Ð h+¸&8 ЇÌò òEnhancements€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€ó óÐ b ÐÌIn€the€following€discussion€of€the€program€modifications€and€testing€of€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€program,€allÏtables€and€results€report€exposure€in€parts€per€million€(Ô_ÔppmÔ_Ô).€€This€is€the€base€unit€used€by€all€theÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€programs.€€The€output€tables€for€the€fourteen€study€runs€report€exposure€in€microgramsÏper€cubic€meter€(Ô_ÔððgÔ_Ô/Ô_Ôm3Ô_Ô).€€This€unit€conversion€was€made€during€the€post„processing€phase.ÌÌThere€are€10€main€programs€in€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3,€which€can€be€divided€into€three€groups:€those€thatÏdid€not€change;€those€with€minor€changes;€and€new€programs.ÌÌÓ€Óà  àPROGRAMà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àCHANGESà0À(#(#àSUMMARY€DESCRIPTION€OF€CHANGESÐæ6À(#À(# ÐßA€+) °°xdô E°ÑxAßÐ Ò" ÐÌÓ€Óà  àÔ_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànoneà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àÐÍÀ(#À(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànone€à0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àÐ/À(#À(# Ðà  àDIST90à0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànoneà0h(#(#àБáh(#h(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔTVLTIMEÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànoneÐóC(#(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔODESTÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àminorà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àDIST,€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô,€Ô_ÔTTFRAÔ_Ô€combined€(to€run€faster)ÐU¥!À(#À(# Ðà  àPOP90à0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àminorà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àCounty€level€information€retainedз#À(#À(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔMECONCÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànewà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àUsed€to€be€part€of€MERGE,€now€separateÐi%À(#À(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànewà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àPart€of€mean€and€variance€calculationsÐ{Ë'À(#À(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànewà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àCreates€tables€by€county€and€air€districtÐÝ -)À(#À(# Ðà  àÔ_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_Ôà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#ànewà0h(#(#àà0Àh(#h(#àCreates€tables€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€and€hour€€Ð?"+À(#À(# Ðà  àÌThe€change€to€the€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô€program€consisted€of€simply€combining€three€programs€thatÏpreviously€ran€separately€into€one€program.€€This€resulted€in€a€considerable€improvement€inÏprogram€execution€time,€in€what€was€the€slowest€step€in€the€model.€€The€improvement€cameÏsolely€from€avoiding€the€need€to€write€out€millions€of€data€records€that€were€only€used€when€readÏback€in€again€into€the€next€program.€€The€output€from€the€modified€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô€program€(a€fileÏcalled€HOMEWORK,€consisting€of€a€20€x€20€array€of€partitioning€factors)€was€compared€to€theÐ í+='9 ÐÔ_Ôoutput€from€the€original€Ô_ÔODESTÔ_Ô.€€There€was€general€agreement€between€the€files,€withÏoccasional€differences€in€the€least€significant€digit.€€These€small€differences€arise€from€roundingÏand€do€not€have€an€appreciable€impact€on€subsequent€analysis.ÌÌThe€POP90€program€was€modified€to€retain€the€information€on€county€of€residence€that€wasÏpreviously€not€needed€by€the€model.€€The€output€file€now€has€two€extra€fields€(the€county€nameÏand€number)€per€record.€€There€are€also€more€records,€since€each€county€is€now€done€separately.€ÏThe€population€numbers€on€the€new€output€file€were€checked€in€two€ways:€across€counties€theÏtotals€match€the€totals€from€the€previous€version€of€POP90,€and€within€counties€the€ALLÏPERSONS€total€matches€the€total€county€population€from€the€census.€€ÌÌThere€were€four€new€programs€added€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€which€replaced€the€MERGE€and€GRAPHÏprograms.€€€These€were€Ô_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ô,€Ô_ÔMECONCÔ_Ô,€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô,€and€Ô_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_Ô.ÌÌThe€Ô_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ô€program€calculates€the€average€duration€in€each€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€(by€hour)€forÏeach€of€the€defined€demographic€groups,€by€summing€all€the€relevant€records€in€the€time„activityÏdatabase.€€In€the€previous€version€of€the€model,€a€random€selection€of€these€patterns€was€madeÏand€the€resulting€time€series€was€used€to€estimate€annual€exposure.€€BY€repeated€runs,€both€theÏmean€and€variance€could€be€estimated.€€The€direct€calculation€of€the€mean€by€Ô_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ô€is€usefulÏin€the€calculation€of€the€tables€with€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€and€hourly€exposure€breakdowns,€sinceÏfor€these€tables€no€variance€estimate€is€provided.€€The€Ô_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ô€program€is€not€used€in€theÏcalculation€of€the€quarterly€and€annual€totals,€since€for€those€a€variance€estimate€is€needed.ÌThe€Ô_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ô€program€was€checked€by€summing€the€average€durations€across€allÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô.€€These€showed€a€total€of€60€minutes€of€in€every€hour,€as€is€necessary.ÌÌThe€Ô_ÔMECONCÔ_Ô€program€uses€the€ambient€air€quality€data€and€a€file€of€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_ÔÏfactors€to€calculate€pollutant€concentration€in€each€of€the€37€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô.€€The€resultantÏoutput€file€should€have€equal€concentrations€for€any€pair€of€Ô_ÔmicroenironmentsÔ_Ô€with€equal€factors.€ÏThis€was€found€to€be€the€case.Ð h+¸&8 ЇThe€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô€program€calculates€exposures€summarized€two€ways:€by€county,€and€by€airÏmonitor€district.€€Both€of€these€tables€can€then€be€summed€independently€to€produce€a€city„wideÏaverage.€€These€were€carried€out€and€agree€to€machine€precision€(six€digits).€€The€program€wasÏalso€tested€in€another€way,€by€creating€a€special€input€file€with€all€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€inputÏconcentrations€set€to€1.0€€Ô_ÔppmÔ_Ô€for€all€air€districts.€€As€a€result,€the€exposure€for€everyone€mustÏtotal€1.0€Ô_ÔppmÔ_Ô€regardless€of€activity€pattern€or€location.€€€Table€9€shows€the€mean€exposure€byÏcohort€calculated€to€single€precision.€€The€exposure€is€correct€within€3€parts€per€million,€which€isÏthe€appropriate€size€for€the€accumulated€roundoff€error€at€single€precision.€€The€internal€tablesÏused€by€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€are€kept€to€double€precision,€and€show€a€mean€exposure€of€1.0€Ô_ÔppmÔ_Ô€and€aÏvariance€of€zero€to€at€least€seven€significant€digits.ÌÌThe€Ô_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_Ô€program€calculates€exposures€by€hour€and€demographic€group,€€€and€alsoÏcalculates€tables€of€total€quarterly€and€annual€exposure€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô.€€The€hourly€tablesÏwere€previously€produced€by€the€MERGE€program,€and€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€tables€are€new.€ÏBoth€sets€of€tables€were€summed€to€calculate€the€overall€exposure,€and€were€found€to€beÏconsistent€with€each€other€and€also€consistent€with€the€city„wide€average€calculated€by€theÏÔ_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô€program.€€Tables€10€and€11€show€the€exposure€by€hour€and€by€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô.€€InÏthe€latter€table,€the€accumulated€exposure€is€given,€which€is€proportional€to€the€time€spent€in€eachÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô,€so€the€numbers€are€not€uniform.€€However,€the€total€across€allÏÔ_ÔmicroenvironmentsÔ_Ô€should€equal€the€number€of€hours€in€the€quarters€and€in€the€year€(i.e.€2160,Ï2184,€2208,€2208,€and€8760,€respectively).€€These€totals€come€within€roundoff€error€of€theÏcorrect€totals.€€€Table€12€is€an€extract€from€the€Ô_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_Ô€run€on€the€IBM,€showing€the€meanÏexposures€calculated€to€single€precision.€€ÌÌIn€general,€single€precision€is€adequate€for€most€of€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€calculations.€€There€wereÏsome€exceptions,€with€the€most€significant€of€these€being€in€the€accumulation€of€the€sums€andÏthe€sum€of€squares€of€the€exposures,€used€to€calculate€mean€and€variance.€€The€reason€doubleÏprecision€is€needed€here€is€because€the€variance€calculation€involves€subtracting€two€nearly€equalÏvalues,€for€which€single€precision€is€not€adequate.€€The€old€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€programs€usually€useÐ h+¸&8 Ðsingle€precision€except€in€special€cases€such€as€the€commuting€algorithm.€€The€new€programsÏ(Ô_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ô,€Ô_ÔMECONCÔ_Ô,€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô,€and€Ô_ÔEXPMEHRÔ_Ô)€use€double€precision€as€standard.€ÌÌThe€new€programs€were€tested€on€the€data€used€for€the€1990€San€Francisco€study.€€The€resultsÏfrom€the€earlier€version€of€this€study€(before€program€modification)€are€given€in€the€1996€reportÏby€IT€Corporation€entitled€€ððDevelopment€and€Evaluation€of€Enhancements€to€the€Hazardous€AirÏPollutant€Exposure€Model€(Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3)ðð.€€These€numbers€are€given€in€Table€13€under€theÏheading€ððIT€1996'.€€€Also€provided€in€the€table€are€the€results€of€a€single€run€of€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3Ïperformed€in€late€1997€(under€the€heading€ððTEST97'),€and€the€results€of€the€new€algorithms€forÏcalculating€mean€and€variance€of€exposure.€€These€algorithms€were€tested€in€both€SAS€andÏFortran€implementations€to€ensure€that€two€very€different€program€styles€gave€similar€results€(i.e.Ïthat€the€program€code€actually€carried€out€the€algorithm€as€intended).€€The€SAS€versions€wereÏnot€calculated€for€the€five€commuting€demographic€groups€since€it€would€have€been€time„¼consuming€to€implement€the€commuting€algorithm€in€the€SAS€program.€€In€this€table,€theÏpopulations€of€the€demographic€groups€are€also€given€as€calculated€for€the€present€set€of€modelÏruns.€€These€numbers€agree€with€the€population€totals€for€each€demographic€group€given€in€theÏ1996€IT€report,€verifying€that€the€same€definitions€were€used€for€each€of€the€demographic€groups.ÌNote€that€the€exposure€of€the€demographic€group€ððall€personsðð€was€not€evaluated€in€the€1996€ITÏreport€and€so€was€not€run€for€these€comparative€tests.ÌÌÐ  X ¨( Ðò òData€Management€and€Verification€ó óÐ ° ÐÌBefore€the€current€enhancements€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3,€the€data€management€problem€wasÏsignificant,€especially€if€14€study€areas€were€to€be€run.€€The€main€problems€were€that€althoughÏÔ_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€was€generally€able€to€handle€multiple€demographic€groups,€key€programs€(e.g.ÏMERGE)€only€handled€a€single€demographic€group€at€a€time.€€Also,€in€order€to€obtain€varianceÏestimates,€multiple€runs€(usually€ten€times)€were€required€per€demographic€group.€€This€impliesÏmore€than€200€runs€per€study€area,€each€producing€multiple€output€files.€€In€the€reorganizedÏversion,€only€a€single€run€is€needed€to€calculate€mean€and€variance€for€all€demographic€groups,Ïwhich€are€Ô_ÔsumarizedÔ_Ô€in€four€output€files€per€study€area.€€On€the€IBM€mainframe,€four€partitionedÏdata€sets€(named€Ô_ÔEXPCOÔ_Ô,€Ô_ÔEXPDIÔ_Ô,€Ô_ÔEXPHRÔ_Ô,€Ô_ÔEMPMEÔ_Ô)€in€the€ððEXPO.HAPEM3.FINALððÏdirectory.€€Each€of€these€contains€one€member€for€each€study€area,€with€a€standard€three€letterÏcode€indicating€the€study€area,€and€a€two€digit€suffix€for€the€year.€€(In€addition,€each€contains€aÏfifteenth€member€for€the€DUMMY€run€used€in€program€testing).€€€In€the€sensitivity€analysis,€Ïseveral€variations€of€the€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentalÔ_Ô€factors€file€are€being€tested.€€In€order€to€distinguishÏthem,€each€factors€file€has€a€numerical€suffix.€€The€same€suffix€is€then€added€to€the€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„¼MS3€output€file€names,€so€as€to€clearly€indicate€which€data€were€used€for€those€runs.ÌÌòòà  àStudy€Areaà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àCode€used€in€file€namesóóДä$(#(# ÐÓ€Óà  àBaltimoreà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔBALÔ_ÔÐöF&h(#h(# Ðà  àBostonà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àBOSÐâ2'h(#h(# Ðà  àChicagoà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àCHIÐÎ (h(#h(# Ðà  àDenverà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àDENк! )h(#h(# Ðà  àHoustonà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔHOUÔ_ÔЦ"ö*h(#h(# Ðà  àLos€Angelesà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àLAXÐ’#â+h(#h(# Ðà  àMinneapolisà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔMSPÔ_ÔÐ~$Î,h(#h(# Ðà  àNew€York€Cityà0  àà0h(#(#àNYCÐj%º -h(#h(# Ðà  àPhiladelphiaà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔPHLÔ_ÔÐV&¦!.h(#h(# Ðà  àPhoenixà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔPHXÔ_ÔÐB'’"/h(#h(# Ðà  àSan€Franciscoà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔSFBÔ_ÔÐ.(~#0h(#h(# Ðà  àSpokaneà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔSPOÔ_ÔÐ)j$1h(#h(# Ðà  àSt.€Louisà0 ¸ àà0¸ (#¸ (#àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔSTLÔ_ÔÐ*V%2h(#h(# Ðà  àWashington,€D.C.à0  àà0h(#(#àÔ_ÔWDCÔ_Ôà À àÐò*B&3h(#h(# Ðà  àÐ Þ+.'4 ÐÓ€ÓThe€input€data€to€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€is€of€four€types.€€The€time„activity€data€is€a€single€file€Ì(ððEXPO.HAPEM3.Ô_ÔFINAL.MEDUR.DATAÔ_Ôðð)€used€for€all€the€study€areas.€€This€file€containsÏ3568€person„days€of€activity€data,€the€same€as€the€file€used€for€the€previous€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô„MS3€runs.€ÏThe€data€has€been€reorganized€into€an€array€of€€hour€and€Ô_ÔmicroenvironmentÔ_Ô€totals€per€person,Ïwhereas€the€file€previously€used€contained€a€time€sequence€of€activities.€€€The€current€form€(theÏarray)€was€summed€and€compared€to€the€time„sequence€file,€and€was€found€to€agree€exactly.€ÏThis€file€is€read€by€the€Ô_ÔDURAVGÔ_Ô€and€Ô_ÔMECONCÔ_Ô€programs,€which€are€new,€and€which€have€a€Ïlogically€simpler€structure€if€the€data€is€explicitly€in€array€form.ÌÌThe€second€type€of€input€data€is€meteorological€data,€consisting€of€daily€mean€and€maximumÏtemperatures€for€each€day€of€the€study€year.€€This€data€was€uploaded€from€a€PC€into€the€fileÏððEXPO.HAPEM3.Ô_ÔFINAL.METÔ_Ôðð,€with€each€study€area€saved€as€a€member€using€the€namingÏconvention€described€above.€€This€data€is€used€to€count€the€frequency€of€each€type€of€day,€forÏsampling€from€the€activity€database.€€The€counts€for€San€Francisco€agreed€with€the€countsÏobtained€in€the€earlier€San€Francisco€runs.Ì€€€€ÌThe€third€type€of€input€data€is€population€counts€for€demographic€groups€from€the€1990€census.€ÏThe€data€for€the€14€study€areas€was€provided€by€the€EPA,€and€was€uploaded€into€25€partitionedÏdata€sets€on€the€IBM,€each€data€set€containing€14€members.€€€The€structure€of€creating€andÏmaintaining€these€25€data€sets€is€somewhat€awkward,€but€this€was€the€form€used€by€the€POP90Ïprogram.€€This€program€was€altered€slightly€to€retain€county€information€on€its€output,€but€theÏdata€input€routines€were€not€altered,€so€the€25€separate€files€were€retained.€€€The€populationÏcounts€at€the€county€level€match€the€known€county€totals.€€ÌÌThe€fourth€type€of€input€data€is€air€quality€data€for€carbon€monoxide€(CO)€extracted€from€theÏAIRS€database.€€This€data€is€summarized€in€Table€1€in€Chapter€1€of€this€report.€€The€monitor€ID,Ïthe€number€of€valid€measurements,€the€minimum,€the€mean,€and€the€maximum€at€each€monitor,Ïwere€compared€to€the€annual€summary€statistics€provided€by€AIRS€itself,€and€were€found€toÏagree.€€The€data€is€then€input€into€the€Ô_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ô€and€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô€programs,€which€were€not€alteredÐ h+¸&8 Ðexcept€to€remove€some€unnecessary€PRINT€statements€and€comments.€€The€output€fromÏÔ_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ô€and€Ô_ÔAQAVGÔ_Ô€was€checked,€as€was€found€to€agree€with€earlier€outputs,€except€in€theÏcase€where€the€original€AIRS€monitor€data€was€missing.€€In€these€cases,€Ô_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ô€estimates€theÏmissing€values€using€a€second„order€Ô_ÔautoregressiveÔ_Ô€algorithm€with€an€additional€random€term.€ÏThe€random€term€cannot€be€reproduced€from€run€to€run€since€it€is€reinitialized€using€theÏcomputerððs€internal€clock€on€each€run.€€€Therefore,€if€an€exact€comparison€of€two€Ô_ÔHAPEMÔ_Ô€runsÏis€desired,€then€the€Ô_ÔTSERIESÔ_Ô€part€should€not€be€recalculated€(i.e.€use€the€results€from€the€first€runÏdirectly€in€the€second€run).€ÌÌÐ  "r  ÐÑ9°ÑÓ  Óò òTABLE€9ó óÐ ° ÐÌÓ ÓExtract€of€Summary€Data€from€Dummy€Run€of€€Ô_ÔEXPCODIÔ_Ô€ProgramÌÔ‡XÒÞ+XXX3ÔÓ€ÓÌ€IEF375I€€JOB/Ô_ÔNZCÔ_Ô€€€€€/START€1998043.1459Ì€IEF376I€€JOB/Ô_ÔNZCÔ_Ô€€€€€/STOP€€1998043.1501€CPU€€€€1MIN€08.27SECÏÔ_ÔSRBÔ_Ô€€€€0MIN€00.13SECÌ€Compute€statistics€for€Ô_Ôcohorts,districts,states,qsÔ_ÔÌ€Read€population€numbersÌ€Read€commuting€fractionsÌ€Compute€populations€for€all€cohortsÌ€Compute€statesÌ€Compute€statistics€for€Ô_Ôcohorts,districts,quartersÔ_ÔÌ€Compute€statistics€for€Ô_Ôcohorts,quartersÔ_Ô€by€countyÌ€Compute€statistics€for€Ô_Ôcohorts,quartersÔ_Ô€by€districtÌ€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€€1€€0.999998689Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€€2€€0.999998033Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€€3€€0.999998033Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€€4€€0.999998271Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€€5€€0.999998868Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€€6€€0.999999046Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€€7€€0.999997854Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€€8€€0.999998093Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€€9€€0.999998748Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€10€€0.999998033Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€11€€€1.00000000Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€12€€0.999997973Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€13€€€1.00000000Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€14€€0.999999046Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€15€€€1.00000000Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€16€€0.999999344Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€17€€0.999999344Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€18€€0.999998391Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€19€€0.999998510Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€20€€0.999999881Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€21€€0.999998510Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€22€€0.999997854Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€23€€0.999999106Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€24€€0.999999046Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€25€€0.999998927Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€26€€0.999999166Ì€COHORT€MEAN=€€€€€€€€€27€€0.999998271Ð Z-ª(, ÐÔ#†X3X+XXÒÞ:#ÔÒ£°ÒÒ °ÒÑTRP$Ø'3 Letter LandscapeXà3Ø' LetterØ'3 Letter Landscape3Ø' LetterTÑÓ  Óò òTABLE€10ó óÐ ° ÐÓª 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