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 Establishing
Baselines for Projects
A baseline typically establishes some standard against which the GHG benefits
of a project can be evaluated.
A baseline can take different forms, such as a project-by-project approach, or
a benchmark or performance standard for a sector or region.
Furthermore, baselines
may be static or dynamic (i.e., change over time). For agricultural
and forestry projects, the baseline could be the level of GHG emissions
or carbon sequestration that would occur in the absence of project implementation.
Analyses have shown that the baseline-setting method chosen can have
a significant effect on the estimation of a project's GHG benefits. Furthermore,
calculating the baseline can reveal whether or not a proposed project
is targeting the most suitable location and activities (i.e., where the
project-based activities might generate the most GHG benefits relative
to ongoing or expected land-use trends).
There is currently no standard
method for establishing baselines for agricultural and forestry projects;
nor do standard methods exist for GHG mitigation projects in other sectors
of the economy. However, a number of processes are developing guidance
and methods to establish baselines (e.g., DOE
1605(b) revisions, WRI/WBCSD
Protocol). 
In the case of a proposed afforestation project, if the baseline
demonstrates no or little tree planting on the proposed site in
the absence of the proposed project's activities, then tree planting
on the proposed site may be likely to provide significant GHG benefits..
If, on the other hand, the baseline reveals a strong likelihood
that the proposed site may be converted to trees over the baseline's
timeframe, even in the absence of project implementation, then
the likelihood of the project generating GHG benefits relative
to the baseline is low. A different project location with a different
baseline may be needed.
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The papers and links listed below are provided for information and discussion.
The opinions and findings expressed in the information below do not necessarily
represent those of the Environmental Protection Agency.
General/Overview references:
More specific references:
- Comparison
of modeling approaches based on US AID and US EPA studies. (PDF
2.0 MB) Presented by S. Brown, Winrock International, at US AID and Government
of Mexico Workshop on Modeling Deforestation in Mexico and Implications
for Carbon Sequestration Projects, March 2003.
- Sommer, A., B.Murray and K. Andrasko (2004)
Project Specific or Performance-standard Baseline? Testing the alternatives
for a forest carbon sequestration project. (PDF, 28 pp., 444
KB) Prepared for the proceedings of the 3rd DOE Carbon Sequestration
Conference, May 3-6, 2004, Alexandria, VA.
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