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 Identifying
Leakage for Projects
The IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (2000)
defines leakage as "the unanticipated decrease or increase in greenhouse
gas (GHG) benefits outside of the project's accounting boundary as a result
of project activities."
The potential for leakage implies that the GHG impacts of a project may
not begin and end with the immediate project boundary. Therefore, it may
be necessary to 1) identify if the project has any leakage potential;
2) try to mitigate the potential for leakage through project location
and design; and 3) account for any leakage when estimating total project
GHG benefits.
There is currently no standard method to identify or quantify leakage
effects due to GHG mitigation projects, either in agriculture and forestry
or other sectors of the economy. Work on this issue is underway, however,
and methods are emerging.
The classic example of leakage in forestry is a project to increase
protection of a clearly threatened forest. By protecting the forest
from logging, the project developer in this case could be avoiding
the release of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere
(i.e., continued deforestation of the forest would be the baseline
condition had the forest not been protected). However, if the demand
for wood remains constant then the logging may simply be displaced
to an area outside the protected (project) area. The CO2
emissions that result from the displaced logging could partially
or completely negate the benefits of avoiding CO2 emissions
in the protected forest. |
The papers and links listed below are provided for information and discussion.
The opinions and findings expressed in the information below do not necessarily
represent those of the Environmental Protection Agency.
General/Overview references:
More specific references:
- Aukland,
L., P. Moura Costa and S. Brown (2003) A conceptual framework and its
application to addressing leakage: the case of avoided deforestation.
Climate Policy, 3(2): 123-136.
(PDF, 14 pp., 159 KB, About
PDF)
- Murray,
B.C, B.A. McCarl and H.C. Lee (2002) Estimating Leakage From Forest
Carbon Sequestration Programs. RTI International Working Paper 02_06.
(PDF, 29 pp., 149 KB, About
PDF)
- Murray, B.C., B.A. McCarl and H.C. Lee (2004) Estimating
Leakage From Forest Carbon Sequestration Programs. Land
Economics, vol. 80(1).
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