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State and Local Climate and Energy Program

Projected Impacts of State Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Policies

EPA and many states rely on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (PDF) (244pp, 5.2M, About PDF) (AEO) demand forecast for power sector modeling and emissions planning. The AEO forecast includes some energy efficiency and renewable energy policies (EE/RE), but does not include all key existing EE/RE policies that many states have adopted. EPA previously developed an approach to account for the projected energy and emission impacts of these key state policies for AEO 2010.

EPA has now updated its approach and projections of energy impacts from these key EE/RE policies for AEO 2013. These projections are intended for use by states developing State Implementation Plans (SIPs) for ozone and other criteria air pollutants. States may use EPA’s EE/RE energy impact estimates to quantify resulting emissions reductions and then include these reductions in their SIP submittals. States may also use EPA’s draft methodology to develop their own estimates of EE/RE impacts and associated emissions reductions. Jurisdictions not currently preparing a SIP but interested in better understanding the energy and emissions impacts of EE/RE policies may likewise use EPA’s methodology and estimates to identify strategies for staying in attainment with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.

To estimate the projected energy impacts, EPA analyzed EE/RE policies that are adopted in state law and codified in rule or order, but that are not reflected in the EIA's AEO 2013 electricity demand projections. Estimated impacts are provided for:

  • Energy efficiency policies that reduce electricity demand through the use of energy efficient equipment, technologies and practices.
  • Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requirements beyond what is assumed in AEO 2013.

EPA is currently requesting feedback on its updated methodology, policy assumptions, and state energy impact projections relative to AEO 2013. Please review the AEO 2013 documentation below and share any comments with EPA by April 1, 2014.

Projected Energy Impacts of Existing State EE/RE Policies Relative to AEO 2013

Documentation

  • Background and Draft Methodology (PDF) (28pp, 353K, About PDF) Provides a project overview and describes objectives for the analysis. This document also includes a detailed description of the draft methodology, including policy definitions, data sources, sample equations, and reference tables.
  • Embedded Methodology (PDF) (8pp, 167K, About PDF)Exit EPA disclaimerDescribes the methodology and data sources used to estimate the amount of embedded savings the EE policies and programs not explicitly in AEO 2013 to prevent double counting in the analysis.
  • Annual Energy Savings and Generation Estimates (XLS) (3.6M) Provides a detailed description of each state's energy efficiency policies as of 2013, as well as energy savings estimates on an annual and cumulative basis (in GWh) for the years 2013-2030. This file also describes RPS commitments and provides annual and cumulative renewable energy sales (in GWh) for states' revised RPS policies beyond what is already captured in AEO 2013.

Summary of Impacts

  • State-by State Summary Pages (PDF) (31 pp, 350K, About PDF) Provides a one-page snapshot of each state's energy savings projections (in GWh) on an annual and cumulative basis for the years 2020 and 2025. This file also includes estimates of future renewable energy sales for states that adopted or revised their RPS beyond what is already captured in AEO 2013.
  • Peak Energy Savings Summaries (XLS) (13.4M) Provides estimates of annual peak savings (in GW) for 2018, 2020 and 2025, as well as hourly demand impacts for each year in states with relevant energy efficiency policies, as of 2013.

For more information about EPA's State EE/RE policy impacts analysis email statepolicyfeedback@epa.gov.

For your reference, EPA is also providing its analysis of EE/RE impacts with respect to AEO 2010. States and other interested parties can use the information below to compare impacts and view previous results, as appropriate. EPA is not requesting comments on its AEO 2010 analysis or documentation.

Projected Energy Impacts of Existing State EE/RE Policies Relative to AEO 2010

Documentation

  • Background and Draft Methodology (PDF) (28pp, 636K, About PDF) Provides a project overview and describes objectives for the analysis. This document also includes a detailed description of the draft methodology, including policy definitions, data sources, sample equations, and reference tables.
  • Annual Energy Savings and Generation Estimates (XLS) (1.1M) Provides a detailed description of each state's energy efficiency policies as of 2011, as well as energy savings estimates on an annual and cumulative basis (in GWh) for the years 2010-2020. This file also describes RPS commitments and provides annual and cumulative renewable energy sales (in GWh) for states' revised RPS policies beyond what is already captured in AEO 2010.

Summary of Impacts

  • State-by State Summary Pages (PDF) (29 pp, 164K, About PDF) Provides a one-page snapshot of each state's energy savings projections (in GWh) on an annual and cumulative basis for the years 2015 and 2020. This file also includes estimates of future renewable energy sales for states that adopted or revised their RPS beyond what is already captured in AEO 2010.
  • Peak Energy Savings Summaries (XLS) (19.9M) Provides estimates of annual peak savings (in GW) for 2015 and 2020, as well as hourly demand impacts for each year in states with relevant energy efficiency policies, as of 2011.

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