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Working Papers/Journal Articles

Current and previous staff of the Air Benefit and Cost Group Group (ABCG) have authored academic working papers and/or published peer-reviewed journal articles on topics related to economic analysis and environmental policy. This site provides access to available working papers and reference to journal articles.

Working papers are available for download in PDF format by clicking on the title of the paper. Journal articles may be retrieved at various online libraries for a fee or at libraries that carry the journal.


Gamas, Julia (2012).

Working Papers

Gamas, Julia. (2012). Scenarios for the Future of Air Quality: Planning and Analysis in an Uncertain World. Working Paper. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Air Economics Group in partnership with ORD's Atmospheric Protection Branch, Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division, National Risk Management Research Laboratory. Future Scenarios Project The Air Benefit and Cost Group, Health and Environmental Impacts Division of OAQPS, in collaboration with ORD's Atmospheric Protection Branch, Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division, National Risk Management Research Laboratory, is conducting a scenario planning process focusing on exploring the use of future scenarios as ways of characterizing the uncertainty surrounding the future of air quality. Scenario planning is a well established methodology for thinking about uncertainty examining how driving forces and trends that are uncertain may steer the future in very different directions. We currently base our analyses on one projected air quality. This future is typically a projection of past trends. Our current projected future and any sensitivities conducted around it, do not tell us much about the underlying driving forces (environmental, social, economic, and political) that are most critical and uncertain to future air quality. Scenarios can give us insights into some key air quality drivers. Different emissions control technologies and policy choices could be seen in light of each scenario and "tested" for their effectiveness and robustness (means of attaining clean air under any scenario). On November 15 and 16 of 2010, EPA hosted a workshop: The Future of Air Quality: Planning and Analysis in An Uncertain World in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. This workshop was an "outside-of-the-box" thinking exercise, where a small group of EPA staff and managers brainstormed on critical variables for the future and their impact on air quality. The objective of this workshop was to develop a small but diverse set of critical alternative future scenarios. Ultimately, we hope that the scenario planning process and the resulting scenarios will improve our ability to consider alternative future air quality concerns and develop cost-effective and robust policy responses. The following document lays out the resulting scenario narratives; internally consistent stories about the future guided by two axes representing the most critical and uncertain drivers for air quality. This is a work in progress. Please direct any questions, comments or suggestions to Julia Gamas (gamas.julia@epa.gov). Group.
Hubbell, Bryan. (2006). Health Based Cost Effectiveness of Ambient PM2.5 Reductions. Working Paper. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Innovative Strategies and Economics Group.
Chappell, Linda. (2006). The document, "Improving EPA Emissions Forecasting For Regulatory Impact Analyses" describes an interim approach for forecasting emissions to future years to be used in regulatory analyses. This document provides background information on this interim approach for the Advisory Council on Clean Air Compliance Analysis and its Air Quality Modeling Subcommittee for review. The EPA is requesting that the Council provide review and advice of this interim approach.
Hubbell, Bryan. (2002). Implementing QALYs in the Analysis of Air Pollution Regulations. Working Paper. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Innovative Strategies and Economics Group.
Hubbell, Bryan. (2002). Evaluating the Health Benefits of Air Pollution Reductions: Recent Developments at the U.S. EPA. Working Paper. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Innovative Strategies and Economics Group.
Hubbell, Bryan. (2002). Health Benefits of Reducing Air Pollution from Heavy Duty Vehicles. Working Paper. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Innovative Strategies and Economics Group.
Larsen, Shannon and Aaiysha Khursheed. (2002). Environmental Regulations and Economic Performance: Evidence from Ozone Status. Working Paper. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Innovative Strategies and Economics Group.
Murray, Brian, Walter Thurman, and Andrew Keeler. (2000). Adjusting for Tax Interaction Effects in the Economic Analysis of Environmental Regulation: Some Practical Considerations. White Paper. Prepared for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Innovative Strategies and Economics Group in conjunction with Research Triangle Institute International.
 

Journal Articles

Bingham, Tayler and Tyler Fox. (1999). “Model Complexity and Scope in Policy Analyses.” Public Administration Quarterly 23(3).
Fox, Tyler. (1996). “Economic Analysis of U.S. EPA Regulations: Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard Industry.” Pulp and Paper Canada 97(12):T465-468.
Fox, Tyler and Don Fullerton. (1991). “The Irrelevance of Detail in a Computable General Equilibrium Model.” Economics Letters 36(1):67-70.
Hubbell, Bryan, W. Florkowski, R. Oetting, S. Braman, and C. Robacker. (2001). Implications of Lawn Care and Landscape Maintenance Firm Profiles for Adoption of Pest-Management Practices. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 33(1): 147-59.
Hubbell, Bryan. (1998). Estimating Insecticide Application Frequencies: A Comparison of Geometric and Other Count Data Models. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 30(2): 285-99.
Hubbell, Bryan. (1997). Entropy Based Measurement of Geographic Concentration in U.S. Hog Production. University of Georgia. Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Faculty Series paper.
Hubbell, Bryan. (1997). Estimating Insecticide Application Frequencies: A Comparison of Geometric and Other Count Data Models. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 29(2): 225-42.
Thurman, Walter, Tyler Fox, and Tayler Bingham. (2000). Imposing Smoothness Priors in Applied Welfare Economics: An Application of the Information Contract Curve to Environmental Regulatory Analysis. Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(3): 511-22.

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