Climate Change Connections: New Jersey (The Jersey Shore)
Climate change is impacting all regions and sectors of the United States. The State and Regional Climate Change Connections resource highlights climate change connections to culturally, ecologically, or economically important features of each state and territory. The content on this page provides an illustrative example. As climate change will affect each state and territory in diverse ways, this resource only describes a small portion of these risks. For more comprehensive information about regional climate impacts, please visit the Fifth National Climate Assessment and Climate Change Impacts by Sector.
On this page:
Introduction: The Jersey Shore Holds Cultural, Historical, and Ecological Importance
From the iconic boardwalks of Atlantic City to its charming seaside towns, the Jersey Shore is a vital economic, cultural, and recreational resource for New Jersey. Every summer, millions of visitors make their pilgrimage “down the shore,” joining in a tradition that dates back to the late 1800s when the very first boardwalk was laid in Atlantic City.1 New Jersey boasts approximately 125 miles of white sand beaches along the Atlantic coastline2 and over 300 square miles of tidal marshland—an ecologically important habitat.3 These lands are the ancestral homeland of the Lenni-Lenape people, who flourished as specialists in fishing and shellfishing in the productive coastal zone as early as 10,000 BCE.4 European colonization resulted in the spread of deadly diseases and significant displacement of Indigenous Peoples from the region.
There are now nearly 7 million people living year-round in the coastal zone of New Jersey, and the local marine economy contributes significantly to the state economy.5,6 Local businesses in the four coastal counties of “the Shore” (Monmouth, Ocean, Atlantic, and Cape May) welcomed more than 50 million visitors in 2022.7 For many, the Jersey Shore is more than just an escape to the seaside, and holds a unique place in the state’s identity. The boardwalk itself, once just a convenient way to separate the sandy beach from hotels and storefronts, hosts iconic arcades, games, rides, eateries, and other entertainment.
Many people go down the shore to enjoy nature, from kayaking at Island Beach State Park to fishing at the Sandy Hook Unit of the Gateway National Recreational Area and birdwatching at the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge. New Jersey preserves hundreds of thousands of acres of accessible and unique coastal ecosystems, from the Delaware River up to New York Harbor.3 These tidal wetlands, barrier islands, dune systems, and coastal forests provide critical habitat and breeding grounds for fish, shellfish, migratory birds, horseshoe crabs, and other marine species.3
Climate Impacts: Rising Sea Levels Are Affecting the Shore
Globally, warming temperatures are causing sea level to rise. The two main ways warming temperatures affect sea level is through the addition of water from melting land ice (glaciers and ice sheets) and the expansion of water due to warming ocean temperatures.8 Sea level rise is already affecting the Jersey Shore in the form of high-tide flooding, or “sunny day flooding,” when higher-than-usual high tides spill over into streets, properties, and walkways.9,10 Due to a combination of sinking land and other factors, the sea levels around New Jersey are rising at a faster rate than in other parts of the world.3,11 The water level has already risen about 1.4 feet over the last century.12 Coastal flooding associated with sea level rise threatens facilities and cultural resources that support coastal tourism and recreation, such as boardwalks, businesses, docks, parks, and other attractions that are central to the Jersey Shore experience.13
In 2021, Atlantic City experienced 13 days of high-tide flooding, which can inundate low-lying infrastructure, ecosystems, recreational areas, and properties.14 By the middle of the 21st century, sea levels along the New Jersey coast are projected to continue rising with a likely range of approximately 11 inches to 2 feet.15 High-tide floods are projected to affect Atlantic City more often with a predicted range of 45 to 225 days out of the year.15 By the end of the 21st century, under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, scientists project that Atlantic City will experience high-tide flooding regularly, very likely at least 95 days a year.3,15
In October 2012, Hurricane Sandy brought devastating flooding to the Jersey Shore that destroyed homes, businesses, transportation, and critical infrastructure. The powerful storm surge coincided with high tide, resulting in 9 to 15 feet of flooding that caused dozens of deaths and widespread damage across the state.16 Hurricane Sandy underscored the vulnerability of the Jersey Shore and Mid-Atlantic region to flooding. Tropical cyclones like Sandy are expected to become more intense, bringing higher storm surge, heavy rainfall, and more flooding hazards.17,18
Taking Action: Adapting to Rising Seas
Addressing climate change requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions while preparing for and protecting against current and future climate impacts. Communities, public officials, and individuals in every part of the United States can continue to explore and implement climate adaptation and mitigation measures. The challenges of sea level rise, coastal flooding, and tropical cyclones require multidisciplinary, cross-agency collaboration to develop and implement climate adaptation strategies. In New Jersey, many stakeholders are exploring strategies to prepare for a changing shoreline, including:
- Planning for resilience. Part of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection’s Climate Resilience Strategy, the Coastal Resilience Plan, includes strategies for conserving and restoring tidal marshes, managing coastal beaches and dunes, updating coastal regulations and policies to account for sea level rise, and reducing flood risk to existing buildings and infrastructure.5 The plan includes considerations about implications of managed or unplanned movements away from the coastal zone. To ensure that adaptation measures are locally relevant, the state encourages the development of equitable, community-based resilience plans in every coastal municipality.
Structures to support oysters as part of living shoreline efforts at Gandys Beach. Source: USFWS/Danielle McCulloch Prosser - Living shorelines. The Coastal Resilience Plan prioritizes the protection, restoration, and enhancement of ecological systems, along with the implementation of nature-based solutions, such as living shorelines.19 The term “living shoreline” describes the use of natural materials such as vegetation, sand, or rock to stabilize coastal edges without impeding the growth of plants and animals.20 Living shorelines, such as those at Gandys Beach, can provide protection from flooding and storms while also enhancing the ecological systems that are at risk.
- Community engagement. New Jersey hosts a variety of initiatives and organizations dedicated to communicating local climate risks, expanding training, and enabling science-based decision-making in response to sea level rise. Jersey Shore residents and visitors can contribute to adaptation work by volunteering to plant protective dune grasses or participating in local planning efforts.5
To learn more about climate change impacts in New Jersey and the Northeast region, see Chapter 21 of the Fifth National Climate Assessment.
Related Resources
- New Jersey Priority Climate Action Plan (EPA)
- EPA Climate Change Indicators: A Closer Look: Land Loss Along the Atlantic Coast
- EPA Climate Change Indicators: Coastal Flooding
- EPA Climate Change Indicators: Sea Level
- 2021 New Jersey Climate Change Resilience Strategy
- Fifth National Climate Assessment: Chapter 9: Coastal Effects
- New Jersey State Climate Summary 2022 (NOAA)
References
1 City of Atlantic City, NJ. (n.d.). About Atlantic City. Retrieved January 24, 2024, from https://www.acnj.gov/page/about-atlantic-city
2 Cooper, M. J. P., Beevers, M. D., & Oppenheimer, M. (2008). The potential impacts of sea level rise on the coastal region of New Jersey, USA. Climatic Change, 90, 475–492. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9422-0
3 New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. (2020). 2020 New Jersey scientific report on climate change. https://dep.nj.gov/wp-content/uploads/climatechange/nj-scientific-report-2020.pdf
4 Boyd, P. D. (2004). Atlantic highlands: From Lenape Camps to bayside town. Arcadia Publishing.
5 New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. (2021). State of New Jersey Climate Change Resilience Strategy. https://dep.nj.gov/wp-content/uploads/climatechange/docs/nj-climate-resilience-strategy-2021.pdf
6 NOAA for Coastal Management. (n.d.). New Jersey. Retrieved August 2, 2024, from https://coast.noaa.gov/states/new-jersey.html
7 Tourism Economics. (2023). The New Jersey visitor economy 2022. Visit NJ. https://visitnj.org/sites/default/files/2023-05/2022_Tourism_Economic_Impact_Study.pdf
8 Leung, L. R., Terando, A., Joseph, R., Tselioudis, G., Bruhwiler, L. M., Cook, B., Deser, C., Hall, A., Hamlington, B. D., Hoell, A., Hoffman, F. M., Klein, S., Naik, V., Pendergrass, A. G., Tebaldi, C., Ullrich, P. A., & Wehner, M. F. (2023). Ch. 3. Earth systems processes. In A. R. Crimmins, C. W. Avery, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, B. C. Stewart, & T. K. Maycock (Eds.), Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH3
9 NOAA Office for Coastal Management. (n.d.). High tide flooding. Retrieved July 24, 2023, from https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/recurrent-tidal-flooding.html
10 EPA. (2024). Climate change indicators: Coastal flooding. Retrieved August 2, 2024, from https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-coastal-flooding
11 Runkle, J., Kunkel, K. E., Champion, S. M., Frankson, R., Stewart, B. C., Sweet, W., & Spaccio, J. (2022). New Jersey state climate summary 2022 (NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 150-NJ). NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service. https://statesummaries.ncics.org/chapter/nj/
12 NOAA. (n.d.). Sea level trends. NOAA Tides & Currents. Retrieved July 24, 2023, from https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8534720
13 Whitehead, J. C., Mecray, E. L., Lane, E. D., Kerr, L., Finucane, M. L., Reidmiller, D. R., Bove, M. C., Montalto, F. A., O’Rourke, S., Zarrilli, D. A., Chigbu, P., Thornbrugh, C. C., Curchitser, E. N., Hunter, J. G., & Law, K. (2023). Ch. 21. Northeast. In A. R. Crimmins, C. W. Avery, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, B. C. Stewart, & T. K. Maycock (Eds.), Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH21
14 NOAA. (2022). Annual high tide flooding outlook: Atlantic City, NJ. NOAA Tides & Currents. Retrieved July 24, 2023, from https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/high-tide-flooding/annual-outlook.html?station=8534720
15 Kopp, R. E., Andrews, C., Broccoli, A., Garner, A., Kreeger, D., Leichenko, R., Lin, N., Little, C., Miller, J. A., Miller, J. K., Miller, K. G., Moss, R., Orton, P., Parris, A., Robinson, D., Sweet, W., Walker, J., Weaver, C. P., White, K., … Auermuller, L. (2019). New Jersey’s rising seas and changing coastal storms: Report of the 2019 Science and Technical Advisory Panel. Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey. https://climatechange.rutgers.edu/images/STAP_FINAL_FINAL_12-4-19.pdf
16 Suro, T. P., Deetz, A., & Hearn, P. (2016). Documentation and hydrologic analysis of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey, October 29–30, 2012 (USGS Numbered Series No. 2016–5085; Scientific Investigations Report). U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Department of the Interior. https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20165085
17 Marsooli, R., Lin, N., Emanuel, K., & Feng, K. (2019). Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns. Nature Communications, 10, 3785. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z
18 Marvel, K., Su, W., Delgado, R., Aarons, S., Chatterjee, A., Garcia, M. E., Hausfather, Z., Hayhoe, K., Hence, D. A., Jewett, E. B., Robel, A., Singh, D., Tripati, A., & Vose, R. S. (2023). Ch. 2. Climate trends. In A. R. Crimmins, C. W. Avery, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, B. C. Stewart, & T. K. Maycock (Eds.), Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH2
19 Resilient New Jersey Coastlines Initiative. (2016). A community resource guide for planning living shorelines projects. https://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/training/planning-living-shorelines-projects.html
20 NOAA. (n.d.). Living shorelines. NOAA Habitat Blueprint. Retrieved January 8, 2024, from https://www.habitatblueprint.noaa.gov/living-shorelines/