Climate Change Connections: Virginia (Tangier Island and the Eastern Shore)

Climate change is impacting all regions and sectors of the United States. The State and Regional Climate Change Connections resource highlights climate change connections to culturally, ecologically, or economically important features of each state and territory. The content on this page provides an illustrative example. As climate change will affect each state and territory in diverse ways, this resource only describes a small portion of these risks. For more comprehensive information about regional climate impacts, please visit the Fifth National Climate Assessment and Climate Change Impacts by Sector.

On this page:

Key Messages
Introduction
Climate Impacts
Taking Action
Related Resources
References

Tangier Island and the Eastern Shore

Key Messages

The Virginia coast and Chesapeake Bay are home to many islands, including Tangier, that have unique cultures and ecosystems, are low-lying, and are vulnerable to rising seas.
Sea level rise is eroding the shore and contributing to more frequent flooding on the Virginia coast, threatening infrastructure, resident health, and island ecosystems.
Warming water and ocean acidification are impacting fish and shellfish species along the Atlantic Coast.

Introduction: Virginia’s Shores Are Home to Rich Biodiversity and Unique Cultures

The Virginia coast includes many diverse features, ranging from small barrier islands to developed regions such as the bustling Hampton Roads metropolitan area. The Eastern Shore is separated from Virginia’s mainland by the Chesapeake Bay. Comprising two counties with numerous islands, Virginia’s Eastern Shore is home to approximately 45,000 year-round residents.¹ Miles of beaches, including those within the Chincoteague National Wildlife Refuge and the Assateague Island National Seashore, host unique wildlife and draw both local and out-of-town visitors to enjoy outdoor recreation.

Coastal marsh with a row of houses in the background.

Tangier is located in the Chesapeake Bay between Virginia’s mainland coast and the Eastern Shore. The low-lying island is home to a small community with a distinct culture and dialect. First inhabited in the 1700s, the town’s small population (436 residents in 2020)² is a major contributor to Virginia’s fishing industry. Tangier produces around 13 percent of the Chesapeake Bay’s blue crabs—the largest amount of any town in the bay.³ The islanders’ way of life depends on crabbing and other fisheries in the surrounding waters. Because of the island’s isolation, Tangier’s culture has developed separately from mainland Virginia’s, especially in regard to language. In their unique English dialect, islanders extend their vowels and use expressions and vocabulary that are found only on the island.

The Eastern Shore features tidal marshes and beaches, many of which are protected as part of park or refuge systems, and they support a wide range of wildlife. Waterbird species, including mallards, widgeons, black ducks, and redhead ducks, thrive on Tangier Island without natural predators.³^,⁴ The wider Chesapeake Bay supports numerous valuable commercial fisheries and shellfisheries with species like oysters, blue crabs, and menhaden. Healthy fisheries are important sources of pride and income both for smaller communities with deep fishing traditions and the broader regional economy.

Climate Impacts: Sea Level Rise Is Causing Land Loss and Erosion

Globally, warming temperatures are causing sea levels to rise. Warming temperatures affect sea level in two key ways: through the addition of water from melting land ice (like glaciers and ice sheets) and the expansion of water due to warming ocean temperatures.⁵ Sea level rise poses a significant threat to many low-lying coastal communities, including Tangier Island, which has an average elevation of just three feet above sea level.⁶^,⁷ Relative sea levels along the mid-Atlantic coastline have increased sharply between 1960 and 2021.⁸^,⁹ Relative sea level accounts for both changes in local land elevation and changes in the level of the world’s oceans. The southern Chesapeake Bay is experiencing a particularly high rate of relative sea level rise because the region’s land is sinking because of natural geological changes.³^,¹⁰ Global sea level rise, fueled by climate change, worsens these changes in relative sea level.¹⁰ From 2010 to 2020, relative sea level in the southern Chesapeake Bay rose a quarter of an inch per year, and sea level rise in the region has been accelerating in recent years.⁷^,10

Sea level rise already contributes to coastal flooding along the East Coast of the United States.⁸ Continued sea level rise in the Chesapeake Bay will contribute to more frequent and deeper floods for islands like Tangier during high tides and storms. Substantial coastal flooding could further damage the town of Tangier’s infrastructure, including commercial fisheries, the local school, houses, churches, and utilities.

From 1850 to 2013, the island group of which Tangier Island is a part lost about two-thirds of its land area to sea level rise and associated coastal erosion.³ Sea level rise is expected to flood the island’s uplands—or higher elevation lands—enough to turn them into wetlands. Becoming wetlands could make these areas uninhabitable, which would have a substantial impact because much of the town’s housing has been built on the upland ridges. From 1967 to 2019, the island’s uplands decreased in area by more than 60 percent, an average annual loss of about one acre per year.⁷ One study predicts that all upland areas could turn into wetlands by the middle of the 21^st century.⁷

Buildings with fishing gear on stilts surrounded by tidal waters.

Rising sea levels and warming ocean temperatures can also profoundly affect ecosystems in and around islands. Tidal wetland habitat loss has led to a decline in bird activity on Tangier Island.³ In the Chesapeake Bay, marine heatwaves have been increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity.¹¹ Warmer water can hold less dissolved oxygen, which can negatively impact a variety of fish and shellfish species.¹¹ Due to warming temperatures, some fish species along the Atlantic Coast have shifted their ranges.¹² Beyond creating heat-trapping effects, carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere also raise dissolved carbon dioxide levels in the ocean. This effect causes greater ocean acidification, which can make it more difficult for marine organisms to produce a mineral called calcium carbonate, which is the main ingredient in their hard skeletons or shells. Warmer water also hastens the harmful chemical reactions brought about by more acidic water. This could impact ecologically and commercially important fish, like mussels and oysters in the Chesapeake Bay.¹¹ The combined impacts of rising seas, warming waters, and more acidic waters are expected to further harm coastal ecosystems, which can have cascading effects on the people and economies that rely on them.

Taking Action: Responding to Rising Seas

Addressing climate change requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions while preparing for and protecting against current and future climate impacts. Communities, public officials, and individuals across the United States can continue to explore and implement climate adaptation and mitigation measures. In Virginia, coastal communities are weighing different options and challenges for living with rising seas, including:

Shoreline protection. The construction of breakwaters along islands’ vulnerable shorelines could help limit some wave action and slow coastal erosion.³ Implementing green infrastructure along coastlines, such as adding vegetation or other natural barriers, can also reduce coastal erosion and flooding.¹³ In 2021, the town of Tangier, the Virginia Department of Forestry, and a group of scouts planted 150 trees along the island’s eastern coast.¹⁴ Planting trees can stabilize the surrounding soil and prevent erosion, while also providing nesting habitat for birds.

To learn more about climate change impacts in Virginia and the Southeast region, see Chapter 22 of the Fifth National Climate Assessment.

Related Resources

References

¹ U.S. Census Bureau. (2020). QuickFacts: Northampton County, Virginia; Accomack County, Virginia; Virginia; United States [Data set]. Retrieved July 9, 2024, from https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/northamptoncountyvirginia,accomackcountyvirginia,VA,US/POP010220

² U.S. Census Bureau. (2020). Profile of general population and housing characteristics. Decennial Census, DEC Demographic Profile, Table DP1. Retrieved August 3, 2023, from https://data.census.gov/table/DECENNIALDP2020.DP1?q=tangier town, va&d=DEC Demographic Profile

³ Schulte, D. M., Dridge, K. M., & Hudgins, M. H. (2015). Climate change and the evolution and fate of the Tangier Islands of Chesapeake Bay, USA. Scientific Reports, 5, 17890. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep17890

⁴ Eastern Shore Hazard Mitigation Steering Committee & Accomack-Northampton Planning District Commission. (2016). Chapter 25: Town of Tangier. In The Eastern Shore of Virginia Hazard Mitigation Plan. https://www.a-npdc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Tangier-11072016.pdf

⁵ Leung, L. R., Terando, A., Joseph, R., Tselioudis, G., Bruhwiler, L. M., Cook, B., Deser, C., Hall, A., Hamlington, B. D., Hoell, A., Hoffman, F. M., Klein, S., Naik, V., Pendergrass, A. G., Tebaldi, C., Ullrich, P. A., & Wehner, M. F. (2023). Ch. 3. Earth systems processes. In A. R. Crimmins, C. W. Avery, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, B. C. Stewart, & T. K. Maycock (Eds.), Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH3

⁶ U.S. Geological Survey. (n.d.). Feature details: Tangier Island. Geographic Names Information System. Retrieved January 23, 2024, from https://edits.nationalmap.gov/apps/gaz-domestic/public/gaz-record/1475444

⁷ Wu, Z., & Schulte, D. (2021). Predictions of the climate change-driven exodus of the Town of Tangier, the last offshore island fishing community in Virginia’s Chesapeake Bay. Frontiers in Climate, 3. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2021.779774

⁸ EPA. (2023). Climate change indicators: Coastal flooding. Retrieved June 28, 2023, from https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-coastal-flooding

⁹ NOAA National Ocean Service. (2024). What is the difference between local sea level and global sea level? Ocean Facts. Retrieved January 23, 2024, from https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel-global-local.html

¹⁰ EPA. (2023). Climate change indicators: Sea level. Retrieved January 15, 2024, from https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-level

¹¹ Whitehead, J. C., Mecray, E. L., Lane, E. D., Kerr, L., Finucane, M. L., Reidmiller, D. R., Bove, M. C., Montalto, F. A., O’Rourke, S., Zarrilli, D. A., Chigbu, P., Thornbrugh, C. C., Curchitser, E. N., Hunter, J. G., & Law, K. (2023). Ch. 21. Northeast. In A. R. Crimmins, C. W. Avery, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, B. C. Stewart, & T. K. Maycock (Eds.), Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH21

¹² EPA. (2024). Climate change indicators: Marine species distribution. Retrieved July 9, 2024, from https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-marine-species-distribution

¹³ EPA. (2023). Coastal resiliency. Green Infrastructure. Retrieved December 22, 2023, from https://www.epa.gov/green-infrastructure/coastal-resiliency

¹⁴ Swift-Turner, C. (2021). Can trees save a sinking island? Virginia Department of Forestry. Retrieved June 28, 2023, from https://dof.virginia.gov/tangier-island-tree-planting/